baseball0618 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 LOL https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2015/01/26/impact-map-for-january-26-through-28-2015-updated/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 LOL https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2015/01/26/impact-map-for-january-26-through-28-2015-updated/ Brave and aggressive call. I wont lol at someone that knows more about weather than me, but yeah going out on a limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Brave and aggressive call. I wont lol at someone that knows more about weather than me, but yeah going out on a limb. I think it's laughable regardless of their meteorological intelligence. Normal intelligence should allow you to refrain to making this public and offering your services to people for money. There was not one run of any model that supported that forecast at all. Nothing had 6-10" west of Lacaster PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think it's laughable regardless of their meteorological intelligence. Normal intelligence should allow you to refrain to making this public and offering your services to people for money. There was not one run of any model that supported that forecast at all. Nothing had 6-10" west of Lacaster PA. So will be interesting to see if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So will be interesting to see if it pans out. I am speaking about the western portion of this forecast. His forecast could potentially pan out on the NJ coastline and up through nyc but from like Trenton to the west it would take a drastic change it what all guidance has ever shown to get near those totals. I hope he verifies personally but I think it's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EPAWA still has eastern Berks in for 9-14" and all I can think is "how?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 EPAWA still has eastern Berks in for 9-14" and all I can think is "how?" 9" is completely plausible at this point (with support from the Euro and now the NAM). You will have to wait and see how windy it is though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 9" is completely plausible at this point (with support from the Euro and now the NAM). You will have to wait and see how windy it is though... You must've missed my post about the EC QPF in ABE and RDG... 9" is not supported by the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You must've missed my post about the EC QPF in ABE and RDG... 9" is not supported by the EC. 18:1 ratio's put it right at 9". Far west shouldn't get too windy so the ratio's should be at least 12:1. It's not likely, but also not out of the realm. His entire map is overblown, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility at this point. Higher numbers sell. And lets be honest, 9-14" forecast? If they get 7", he will still claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You must've missed my post about the EC QPF in ABE and RDG... 9" is not supported by the EC. Indeed, also from my personal observation eastern Berks tends to be most similar to ABE, because of its high relative elevation. RDG, I think should be considered western Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 18:1 ratio's put it right at 9". Far west shouldn't get too windy so the ratio's should be at least 12:1. It's not likely, but also not out of the realm. His entire map is overblown, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility at this point. Technically nothing is out of the realm. That doesn't mean its a good forecast. 18:1 ratios is a total reach. Not getting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 18:1 ratio's put it right at 9". Far west shouldn't get too windy so the ratio's should be at least 12:1. It's not likely, but also not out of the realm. His entire map is overblown, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility at this point. Higher numbers sell. And lets be honest, 9-14" forecast? If they get 7", he will still claim victory. His gradient is far too loose. I suppose we shouldn't get to upset with him afterall he stuck by his final call which was made nearly 24 hours ago. 2 inches off is not a terrible error margin for that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nbc10 now likes my 6-10" call for upper SEPA counties from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Weather World had 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT on FB lmao: BREAKING NEWS... Wxrisk and the European weather Model are getting a Divorce... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT on FB lmao: BREAKING NEWS... Wxrisk and the European weather Model are getting a Divorce... Anyone can be a meterologist these days. No real science in the profession. Really don't think we need people these days in the business. A few people to run a computer program and send out the forecast. Computer voices or a cartoon animated person on your tv screen I bet if you ran the average all the top rated weather models, your forecast would have been decent for this storm 12-24 hours out. Only reason this storm busted, was human emotion got involved. DT is the classic example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 DT on FB lmao: BREAKING NEWS... Wxrisk and the European weather Model are getting a Divorce... Hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Anyone can be a meterologist these days. No real science in the profession. Really don't think we need people these days in the business. A few people to run a computer program and send out the forecast. Computer voices or a cartoon animated person on your tv screen I bet if you ran the average all the top rated weather models, your forecast would have been decent for this storm 12-24 hours out. Only reason this storm busted, was human emotion got involved. DT is the classic example. Good post on a weather board where we are lucky to still have a few pros contribute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Anyone can be a meterologist these days. No real science in the profession. Really don't think we need people these days in the business. A few people to run a computer program and send out the forecast. Computer voices or a cartoon animated person on your tv screen I bet if you ran the average all the top rated weather models, your forecast would have been decent for this storm 12-24 hours out. Only reason this storm busted, was human emotion got involved. DT is the classic example. For one thing all tv weather people should be meteorologists. I certainly want to hear a met like Hurricane doing the weather not a David Murphy saying flurries from a weak clipper on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Good post on a weather board where we are lucky to still have a few pros contribute... No problem. Is it something that I said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 on the food chain EPAWA & Steve D. would be below plant life, there's no possible way one could claim these two provide any kind of value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 For one thing all tv weather people should be meteorologists. I certainly want to hear a met like Hurricane doing the weather not a David Murphy saying flurries from a weak clipper on Monday. I disagree. I enjoy some nice eye candy on tv. Ratings baby. Just need a script and a degree from that school down in Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 on the food chain EPAWA & Steve D. would be below plant life, there's no possible way one could claim these two provide any kind of value That made be laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 For one thing all tv weather people should be meteorologists. I certainly want to hear a met like Hurricane doing the weather not a David Murphy saying flurries from a weak clipper on Monday. Sorta like the CPA exam. You need to pass this exam with your degree to work or be on tv a meterolgist. Take the exam every 5 years. You may be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Anyone can be a meterologist these days. No real science in the profession. Really don't think we need people these days in the business. A few people to run a computer program and send out the forecast. Computer voices or a cartoon animated person on your tv screen I bet if you ran the average all the top rated weather models, your forecast would have been decent for this storm 12-24 hours out. Only reason this storm busted, was human emotion got involved. DT is the classic example. This is a really good post. I see potential in the cartoon - computerized voice character, seriously. There's gold in them thar hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 My first call map for Sunday night ⛄️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 on the food chain EPAWA & Steve D. would be below plant life, there's no possible way one could claim these two provide any kind of value That's kinda harsh no? EPAWA did a nice write up outlining what was to happen and what did explaining their mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's kinda harsh no? EPAWA did a nice write up outlining what was to happen and what did explaining their mistakes. This was a calamity all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjdale Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 200K + followers - I think they may be a bit above plant life. Personal opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 200K + followers - I think they may be a bit above plant life. Personal opinion. The amount of followers shouldn't be a barometer of their skill level at forecasting. However, I did appreciate their admission of the blown forecast and the quick follow up detailing where they / it (forecast) went wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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