Birds~69 Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 20 hours ago, JTA66 said: A quick follow up to the post above... Looks like their summer forecast is a continuation of the May-July period -- temps slightly above average with near normal precip. The big heat looks to stay out west over the Rockies. Above normal precip to our west/southwest (Ohio Valley region), this would lead to below average temps there. All in all, I could live with this. Not a fan of those summers where the AC runs weeks on end. Yeah, I can deal with that. Honestly, it feels like winter just ended and here we are in May. The next couple days will get a little warm but a cool down over the weekend extending into next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 July-Sept update... AccuWx going with temps and precip averaging near normal for our region. Bouts of severe wx still possible but the worst of it looks to be upstate NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 1, 2018 Share Posted August 1, 2018 Accuwx going with a warm, wet autumn for us with perhaps some tropical mischief. Sounds like the current pattern keeps rolling along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 Early summer 2019 thoughts from AccuWx: Temps +1-2 above avg, near normal precip (which would actually feel dry considering this past year!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 Latest ideas from Accuwx on the summer... Temps +2-3 above avg. While there may be more 90F+ days than last summer, there should be fewer 70F+ overnight mins. Precip below avg. Isolated serve with mod to high risk areas off to our south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 1st early high level winter forecast from the folks at WeatherBell show a slow start to winter but averaging only slightly above normal temps with snowfall in our area at 125% of normal August 2019 Plenty of potential for a severe winter. East will have to overcome early warmth. SST analogs are amazingly close to a blend of 2013-14 and 2014-15. Warm northeastern Pacific and cooler Nino1+2 usually a great cold signal. Snowfall should be generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 Larry Cosgrove issued his winter outlook on 10/31 on his Facebook page. You will need to scroll down to find it. Also, read his replies to the comments under his post for some more clarification. https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 DT (WxRisk) has posted his final winter outlook. https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=1CA2F9A16D1A6375!13380&ithint=file%2cpptx&authkey=!AC_lsieTX6tAQh0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 You have three main choices for a winter forecast below, normal or above and he has two of them covered. 2/3 chance of nailing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 The well respected MET - JB from WB is on board the snow and ice train for north of the mason dixon line with the next event (16th-18th) since last Saturday. He is still not getting into accumulation but sees a Miller B storm running to the lakes with a secondary popping off the coast....and then some strong to near record cold to follow by the pre-Christmas weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 JB still on the snow and ice train north of the m/d line - as depicted on the 6z Euro means run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Pretty good discussion from DT (WxRisk) in his This Week in Weather video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 From JB today after 12z runs for the period before doom and gloom becomes full throated mid month!! "But there is a real chance here that the storm on the weekend does exit to the south and it does snow all the way to the coast. No longer are there just pressing height falls on the model. And this is what I am talking about, If you have different mass considerations, the movement of the mass, being lifted in one place, sinking n another, will bend the baroclinic ribbon, If you then focus the height fall center where the bend occurs you are in business, Truth be told, the 500 mb the Euro has is for a midwest to northeast snowstorm, it is still has to get some warm air out of the way, but they run at least makes 2 points. 1) it is not so far fetched that before the doom and gloom after day 10, there are winter threats and 2 ) Remember these are mathematical representations of a system that can not be tamed by men. Whether it happens or not, The 12z run while more bullish is likely not through correcting as it is desperate to try to string it out at the end, but that may be a function a feedback, You roll an upper low through the east like this and here is the problem btw the stringing out at the end and you probably are going to see it snow to the coast from the Delmarva north Of course the GFS had a nice little twist too it in the longer term And before that the GEFS jumps on a clipper but has nothing behind it and huge fight ensues with the Euro having less with the clipper and a cutter behind it, I like the middle. More clipper to push the cold, then a more southern track of the storm from Texas to the Va Capes. I think that storm will be further southeast, near the Va coast next week We'll see In the meantime there is room before the doom and gloom for some fun and games" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Mid month weenie roast, s'mores for desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 12 hours ago, RedSky said: Mid month weenie roast, s'mores for desert Chance of snow on the euro/eps this weekend. Another chance for a storm around the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 13 hours ago, RedSky said: Mid month weenie roast, s'mores for desert You might be making s'mores in the snow says the GFS. New year. New attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 From JB after the 12z runs "The purpose of such extensive discussion on this is not to get into a fight over snow in central park, though I do think it will snow there and if I had to pick a number for snow by Mon am, there it would be 3. Its to get out in front of this, at the risk of being wrong, to explain why modeling is not the end-all to a problem, Say what you want, but there was no bowling ball rolling through with any hope a couple of days ago and this period Jan 5-12 has been on my radar for a while now. I can't help what happened before, and I see what is coming after, but in the meantime, there will be some triumphs with this storm as well as trauma. But this is not a backyard snow argument, for until the meteorology is settled the snow result is not clear, but with that warm water off the east coast, and the upper low coming right at it, I believe this low winds up between Cape May and Va beach, not north of that. As said, you may be 38 over 33 and raining and then bingo, the big wet flakes start coming down. The clipper on the euro spread snow further south than previous runs, and then next storm is further south. While the worst case ( lets say no snow south of I80 in the east and I 70 in the Ohio valley) is on the table, so is the best case as described in the earlier idea." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 AccuWx updated their forecast for the remainder of winter. No real surprises -- overall above average temps and precip for our region (and Jan remains a dumpster fire). But they do have Feb averaging a degree below normal with above average precip, so there is some hope. No mention of March. I suppose the forecast is for met winter only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 Had to go back several pages to find this thread. Anyway... Paul Pastelok at Accuwx issued his summer outlook on 4/26. No real surprises, another summer of temps averaging +2 to +3 above normal. He also thinks it will be a wet summer for us with plenty of chances for severe -- we could maintain out new status as "tornado ally". The other thing that stood out is the west will continue experiencing high heat and drought conditions. Only 144 days until fall! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 1, 2022 Share Posted May 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Had to go back several pages to find this thread. Anyway... Paul Pastelok at Accuwx issued his summer outlook on 4/26. No real surprises, another summer of temps averaging +2 to +3 above normal. He also thinks it will be a wet summer for us with plenty of chances for severe -- we could maintain out new status as "tornado ally". The other thing that stood out is the west will continue experiencing high heat and drought conditions. Only 144 days until fall! Agree with the big severe threat this spring. When the hot weather finally gets it's azz moving from the tropics and gets north there will be a clash with this conveyor belt of cold from Canada pattern we have in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Just a quick update on the above forecast for summer 2022... Still looking like +2 to +3 above average temps for the I-95 corridor from Boston down to DC with above average precipitation. The western plains/Rockies foothills are looking like the big winners for scorching heat this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 On 5/14/2022 at 12:09 PM, JTA66 said: Just a quick update on the above forecast for summer 2022... Still looking like +2 to +3 above average temps for the I-95 corridor from Boston down to DC with above average precipitation. The western plains/Rockies foothills are looking like the big winners for scorching heat this summer. I think we are doing decently well as far as heat and almost June. Clouds,rain,,tons of wind, bangs of thunder.Fall right around the block....almost under 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 I'd post Paul Pastelok's (from Accuwx) 2022-23 winter outlook, but I don't think anyone is going to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 56F/DP 52F Big fan: It's a lock...greenskeeper weenie tag coming shortly. https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac#:~:text=11%3A Texas-Oklahoma-,Winter will be colder than normal%2C with the coldest periods,late January and early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 6:49 AM, Birds~69 said: 56F/DP 52F Big fan: It's a lock...greenskeeper weenie tag coming shortly. https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac#:~:text=11%3A Texas-Oklahoma-,Winter will be colder than normal%2C with the coldest periods,late January and early February. DT says "winter come hinter" and looks to be highly favorable pattern developing especially considering the deep trough and strong jets developing through the country. Anybody following JB and LC these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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