Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 No idea why winter outlooks are a thing. No one ever has a clue. No one is ever going to call for a monstrous winter nor an extremely bleak winter. You mostly just see average or slightly above/below. Seems like it's just an unnecessary thing to predict honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 23 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I watch the 11pm the other night and all Glenn showed was the 3 day forecast? I never know when they'll show the 10 day? Seems to change day-day? It's like they want viewers to keep viewing/guessing when the 10 day will show up? (ratings) Ch6 is so much more professional (maybe that's why they're always #1) I almost had it w/Glenn/NBC 10... I can't imagine Glenn being all that inspired in that setup - he has a lot more to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season. I hate to say it, but the cold pattern coming barely deserves to be called cold. Looks to be a few degrees below normal at best, unless I'm missing something. Yuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 From JB at WB "The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing. But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 21 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season. Larry is great and I'm very anxious to read his updated thoughts but Haven't seen his Saturday updates posted to google groups yet. It seems there is still a lot of snow potential (some small some bigger) over the next several weeks!!! I'm feeling very good about at least up to midFebruary!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 7:31 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season. 4 hours ago, snowwors2 said: Larry is great and I'm very anxious to read his updated thoughts but Haven't seen his Saturday updates posted to google groups yet. It seems there is still a lot of snow potential (some small some bigger) over the next several weeks!!! I'm feeling very good about at least up to midFebruary!! Not sure what you read Ralph but, As I suspected...his latest thoughts sound pretty optimistic for us!! https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/MzsJ1WZu4qU https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Not sure what you read Ralph but, As I suspected...his latest thoughts sound pretty optimistic for us!! https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/MzsJ1WZu4qU https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally! Gotcha....he did allude to that in his latest newsletter, he is primarily a synopstician and I'm sure the models have been befuddling him (along with the rest of us)!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 DT is a dog chasing his tail on this 2/5 deal... Candian shows a SECS for some of our neck of the woods taken as literal. Model Mayhem ensues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Let's hope the ECM comes in something like the Canadian. The scales have tilted too far now for a southern system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Let's hope the ECM comes in something like the Canadian. The scales have tilted too far now for a southern system. Euro has solid HP dominating where others have some sort of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2017 Share Posted January 29, 2017 Maybe Larry C was omto something and should have stuck with his original thoughts for a warmup. 6z GFS says winter ends and spring begins next week. I say bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted February 1, 2017 Share Posted February 1, 2017 Canadian said super torch for March in the NE again today. Canadian called it last year too nearer to March. We haven't had a wet March where I live since 2007, so I'm begging you people, talk to your weather gods: let New Mexico have our March trough back. We like snow in March out here, it's our best snow pack month. Last March was particularly infuriating with the snow in Guadalajara/Jalisco, the blizzard in Denver and not even a drop of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Umm ... tomorrow night at 11:00, Ch 6 is issuing it's February Winter Outlook. Isn't winter about half over, and by tomorrow night, about 25% of Feb will be in the books?? Wonder if they'll go with BN temps and AN snowfall?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 My biggest question is why the hell isn't Chris Sauers on 6 more often... he offers more analysis than any other tv met I've ever seen and is clearly under utilized!!! Channel 10 needs him really badly at this point!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 ^Agree. He offers good analyst and a snow weenie...often brings up model runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Yup!!! why so little air time...he reminds me of how Larry Cosgrove used to do the tv weather....come on 6ABC, throw Chris a much deserved bone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 hours ago, snowwors2 said: My biggest question is why the hell isn't Chris Sauers on 6 more often... he offers more analysis than any other tv met I've ever seen and is clearly under utilized!!! Channel 10 needs him really badly at this point!! Because he was hired as the weekend Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 hours ago, MGorse said: Because he was hired as the weekend Met. Can't they promote him since many people approve unless he has a solid weekday gig? (probably so) Maybe him at 4pm and 5pm and Cecily at 6pm 11pm. Or he just ship to a different station? He seems comfortable in his current role though...who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxradio Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Chris Sauer is a radio MET on a NJ station full time, I believe its 101.5. He definitely is an upgrade over David Murphy, much more knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Can't they promote him since many people approve unless he has a solid weekday gig? (probably so) Maybe him at 4pm and 5pm and Cecily at 6pm 11pm. Or he just ship to a different station? He seems comfortable in his current role though...who knows? Not sure since I do not work there. I was just stating that he is probably not on the air much because he is their weekend Met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm? Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly? I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm? Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly? I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious. Thanks. I posted the snowmaps (screenshots) from the majority of the local TV outlets somewhere in the "Feb 8-9th Storm discussion" thread....I'm pretty sure that was the thread? If not, one of the other threads from this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Lolz!! Now we know why we don't see more of Storm Ranger 10 ... http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/entertainment/television/Report-NBC-Bostons-Storm-Ranger-weather-truck-is-actually-based-in-Philly.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: Lolz!! Now we know why we don't see more of Storm Ranger 10 ... http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/entertainment/television/Report-NBC-Bostons-Storm-Ranger-weather-truck-is-actually-based-in-Philly.html But it is exclusive. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2017 Share Posted February 17, 2017 13 hours ago, JTA66 said: Lolz!! Now we know why we don't see more of Storm Ranger 10 ... http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/entertainment/television/Report-NBC-Bostons-Storm-Ranger-weather-truck-is-actually-based-in-Philly.html What a total joke nbc10 weather has become, it had always been my favorite dating back to the Herb Clarke years (with the exception of Jim obriens years at 6)....6abc now blows them away with their analysis and graphics and, mostly, a great team of Cecily, Adam and Chris Sauers!!! And, to make matters worse the nbc10 "team" is really amateurish, with the exception of glen who I believe has been deminshed this winter to the least common denominator!! He actually seemed giddy tonight talking about the pending warm weather....he did at least show the horrid 10 day (lol)...c'mon glen don't kowtow to the non winter weather folks....PLEASE!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Hey now... Perhaps this will straighten things out (at NBC10): http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Tammie-Souza-NBC10-Meteorologist-Weather-Forecast--414933813.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 Bump... Just read Paul Pastelok's (AccuWx) thoughts on the May-July period. He's going with normal to slightly above normal temps. Cooling energy usage will be near average. Looks like near normal precipitation with below normal severe (but there will be some). Confidence is moderate. His June-Aug ideas will be out next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 A quick follow up to the post above... Looks like their summer forecast is a continuation of the May-July period -- temps slightly above average with near normal precip. The big heat looks to stay out west over the Rockies. Above normal precip to our west/southwest (Ohio Valley region), this would lead to below average temps there. All in all, I could live with this. Not a fan of those summers where the AC runs weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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