The Iceman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Mt holly has been great this year and even if they don't nail the forecast in the point and click, they almost always mention the chance of their forecast being wrong and give a terrific explanation of why it could happen in the AFD. Really they are my favorite forecasters by far and have a great track record of not only forecasting but educating the general public as well. I have learned so much from them over the years and it's such a shame that the guys don't post over here much anymore. Definitely miss their input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Mt holly has been great this year and even if they don't nail the forecast in the point and click, they almost always mention the chance of their forecast being wrong and give a terrific explanation of why it could happen in the AFD. Really they are my favorite forecasters by far and have a great track record of not only forecasting but educating the general public as well. I have learned so much from them over the years and it's such a shame that the guys don't post over here much anymore. Definitely miss their input. MGorse still posts here once and while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 On 1/10/2017 at 0:21 PM, hurricane1091 said: Very interesting, as I did mention this already but was interested to learn some insight from an insider. This is totally a loaded question, but in your mind, why is it that many TV meteorologist sided with data coming from the models with more conservative solutions, as opposed to the more aggressive solutions offered by other models? What kind of comparison goes on with current atmospheric conditions versus what is likely to happen, and why did some models simply not pick up on what actually occurred? An unrealistic question I am sure to ask, as it probably requires a lot of details to explain that we likely cannot even understand - but if you could entertain this just a bit I think it would be awesome. I do find the NWS to be quite good as well - to add to what others have said. I am not going to speak for TV Meteorologists since I am not one and not there to see what they are looking at and how their decisions are made on what to go with. Regarding this past weekend storm, the model guidance overall were having trouble with the split flow. This involved a system moving across the Great Lakes and another one sliding across the Gulf Coast States. What appeared to have happened was the systems phased a bit faster allowing warmer air to be advected farther north and west, therefore moving the area of lift in the atmosphere farther inland. There was mesoscale banding signatures showing up in the guidance, but the million dollar question was where would it set up. The actual surface low I think did not track that much closer to the coast from what the guidance had, however the quicker phasing of the systems provided stronger lift to the northwest side and therefore the snow shield was able to get farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Thank you for the informed post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Thanks for the kind words about NWS Mount Holly. We do our best, despite the staffing shortage which continues to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 22 hours ago, MGorse said: Thanks for the kind words about NWS Mount Holly. We do our best, despite the staffing shortage which continues to go on. Yeah, with things in such dire states in D.C it hard to see any of the pre-sequester stuff coming back anytime soon... We need a pro-technical president triple research funding for space, medical, infrastructure and education. The other thing that bothers me about our country is the cost of college education, it takes all of our technical minds and basically forces them to take jobs at already existing corporations instead of allowing new graduates to try their hand opening their own businesses or going on to graduate school. It literally takes the creative lifeblood out of our economy. How did we lose our momentum from the 1990's? First, we had a moron president... then we got a moron congress ...now we are going to have both. Although we have only ourselves to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 4 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Yeah, with things in such dire states in D.C it hard to see any of the pre-sequester stuff coming back anytime soon... We need a pro-technical president triple research funding for space, medical, infrastructure and education. The other thing that bothers me about our country is the cost of college education, it takes all of our technical minds and basically forces them to take jobs at already existing corporations instead of allowing new graduates to try their hand opening their own businesses or going on to graduate school. It literally takes the creative lifeblood out of our economy. How did we lose our momentum from the 1990's? First, we had a moron president... then we got a moron congress ...now we are going to have both. Although we have only ourselves to blame. Realize this is your opinion but tread lightly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 10 hours ago, snowwors2 said: Realize this is your opinion but tread lightly... Agreed....this is not a good comment on a weather site.....the majority of the counties (incredibly 84% of all counties in our country voted for Trump - that is a mandate!) in the United States voted for the "moron" you mentioned who will be our President later this week. You can personally dislike the man...but please respect the office! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 16 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Yeah, with things in such dire states in D.C it hard to see any of the pre-sequester stuff coming back anytime soon... We need a pro-technical president triple research funding for space, medical, infrastructure and education. The other thing that bothers me about our country is the cost of college education, it takes all of our technical minds and basically forces them to take jobs at already existing corporations instead of allowing new graduates to try their hand opening their own businesses or going on to graduate school. It literally takes the creative lifeblood out of our economy. How did we lose our momentum from the 1990's? First, we had a moron president... then we got a moron congress ...now we are going to have both. Although we have only ourselves to blame. This is not a political thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 So, how 'bout that JB? (Just trying to get this thread back on topic.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 20 hours ago, JTA66 said: So, how 'bout that JB? (Just trying to get this thread back on topic.) Good job! JB probably says cold and snow later this month and into February (maybe a bit more dramatically). I'm in favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Sheesh! Let's get this back where it belongs.....on weather JB from WB with his thoughts on the pattern change coming.... "But that is how these storms can be , the first one mainly north of US 6 and east of te Hudson river Wednesday but that one in the 7/8 period, the one I think is going out under the block , that is the next one . Now the big thing is that may be so strong is it pulls the other one in. In any case back over a week ago when we were sounding alarms about how warm this thaw may or may not be, and of course I may just be being stubborn, I mentioned how it could end with some wild storm changing to snow in the northeast. Not as likely in the midwest, ( outside of flurries) as the colder air has to come in from the northeast first But as soon as that positive gets to and west of Hudson bay, look out. Game on" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 I love to "read" JBs latest but am I the only one who needs a special mail-away decoder ring to decipher his phraseology? "Drink more Ovaltine!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 For your reading enjoyment From JB at WB this AM "The tornadoes and severe weather in Mississippi are a sign that a front running impulse is coming out. That impulse is going to carve the path for this low to move along. The Euro wants it over Chesapeake bay for instance, and then the primary goes toward it. I think its likely to be off the Delmarva by tomorrow night, and that is where the big low winds up on Monday. Now consider this. Its so warm it cant get any warmer. What do I mean by that? Well all the warm air for the system is already on the playing field. Because winds are mainly west in the southern sector of the storm, there is no transport of warmer air into the center as it moves east. Instead the cooler air cmes flying in underneath and as the center moves further northeast, it starts drawing cooling are into it from the northeast . The front running system causing those tornadoes is HUGE in this for this should get off the mid atlantic coast tomorrow and when it does, establish the path for the primary center, after it moves up into WVA, to move along. The warm air that is around now has gone into developing the storm as heights fall over it, but there is no warm inflow. The air mass to the northeast is low level cold air, Its way the new HIRES NAM is cooling this so dramatically, its seeing all this and too little back in central Pa simply because of the ideas I have analogged this too ( 3 storms that were warm that turned into big interior snows as centers drew cold air in, and precip processes cooled the air, late March 1984, Dec 1992, late March 1984). The warm advection leads to strong upward motion. Saturated air that may be 38 degrees at NYC is lifted and that can cool quite a bit, Meanwhile he sounding turns Isothermal and a bunch of people start turning over to snow west of the track to the upper low. as soon as the warm advection cuts off, which should be Monday as all the cooling gets around it, a bunch of people start turning over to snow That is the key. So what I do is figure out all the scenarios I see and weight them. Lets look here at State College. If I blend my 3 analogs it comes out to a foot. But suppose I look at modeling, take the average of the Canadian UKMET US models, ensembles and operational. I may have 10 samples I am looking at Now we got 15 with March 84 and Dec 1992 and 9 with the early 93 March storm. That is 39 for a total . the contribution from 7 models is only 7 So lets say there are 7 objective inputs adding up to 7 inches ( 1 each) and then my 3 analogs which tack on another 39 ( 15,15,9) . This gives me 10 tools totaling 46, which is an average of 4.6, hence the forecast of 3-6 put out a couple of days ago. NYC I said 1-3. This is not to get into a fight over either place Its to demonstrate a forecast method where you don't simply go into depression/elation cycles over model. The time to flip out is Tuesday morning if there is nothing on the ground , not over models. But if you can come up with storm typing, then as the storm gets closer, you can eliminate the options. Forecasting is not putting out 10 different options before an event. If you change your forecast 9 times, then out of 10 samples you were wrong on 90% of them. And what's more you cant go back and claim a forecast was right. You can say, that idea was better, but I pulled it off the table. I really think the answer to the forecast questions is not the models, but identifying EVERYTHING you can and then weighting it. The models are simply doing that. Their variance shows that obviously they disagree. So what is needed for the right answer. YOU! I don't care if you have a degree or not, if you love the weather and you love getting out there then you should put out your ideas. This is another libertarian rant against those that think its "irresponsible" for untrained guys to be posting forecasts. That is arrogant. I am suggesting a method that I use that you might want to try, sharing what I do. I am also suggesting that there is a philosophy that can make it easier not to swing all over the place when models do or do not go your way" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 nice post. yea most noobies in the NYC forum are crying rain, and nothing but rain...when they don't realize temperatures of just a few degrees is all it takes now. actually, I think their slowly coming around this morning...from rain to sleet. eventually they'll get there. but yea, this Mississippi stuff this morning got my attention as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has just drizzle and light rain through rush hour tomorrow with only .03" steadier rains move in around noon tomorrow and goes till near noon on Tuesday. Total rain 1.52" with temps remaining in the 30's on Tuesday. Chance of a little wintry precip (flurries) by Friday night....with temps not too far above freezing next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Paul, does Wxsim forecast wind speeds? Just wondering what it's showing for gusts with this storm. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 It does forecast wind speed but it knows where I am between hills north and south to not expect much from a wind perspective...only shows gusts to 30mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/lqwBkN3XVkM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Larry C nailed the first 2/3 of winter nobody wanted to believe it. But what did he say originally about February? Large amount of great Feb's in his analogs and a couple duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Holy smokes...windy as hell out there at 3:20am. Def 40mph at times...wind burn galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Pretty sure squires flying horizontally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has trended significantly colder now has rain this PM transitioning to sleet by 630pm. A mix of sleet and some snow heavy at times overnight with 1.4" of sleet/snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am tomorrow morning. Temps will fall slowly through the day but will remain above freezing till near 4am Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 You guys may want to look at WT360 has for March (Jan 23 Captain's Log). Much wetter/colder than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I hate March yuck A winter fan Dec-Jan-until Valentines day mid Feb then the nuclear sun angle takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 9 hours ago, RedSky said: I hate March yuck A winter fan Dec-Jan-until Valentines day mid Feb then the nuclear sun angle takes over We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 13 hours ago, RedSky said: I hate March yuck A winter fan Dec-Jan-until Valentines day mid Feb then the nuclear sun angle takes over 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. Make that 3. That's my time period as well. Around the 2nd-3rd of Feb is usually my cut off line then you have to hope for overnight snow. Sure, you "can" get snow during the day after that but it's usually slop which melts on the road as soon as the intensity lets up. You would need perfect conditions for a daytime storm. (temps in the 20's, low dense clouds and snow intensity) Overall, I've given up and would cash my Winter chips in now for a much below normal (temps) Spring and a below normal Summer. This Winter has been boring torture and not the least bit fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. We like our snow and ice with the better winter sun angle basically. I also could have added any snow I can get in fall particularly around Thanksgiving, you get geared up for winter since frost so the first event even if the ground is still too warm is good. Had all systems go with close to 1" before Thanksgiving last November then... It seems like nature has to balance things out to get to near average with the current decade 2011-2020 running significantly above normal for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 ^^^^ per my previous post, Larry C speaks clearly about upcoming potential as did C Tynan on a live webcast I just viewed.... i also need to say what a nice job channel 6 does with their weather spots in providing some longer range analysis (particularly in comparison to the increased dribble that channel 10 provides with little more than discussing countless temperature ranges, and now rarely shows their 10 day extended)! I know other weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere agree and I post this with hopes that both outlets will "see" it and continue/adjust there coverage as the case may be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 14 hours ago, snowwors2 said: ^^^^ per my previous post, Larry C speaks clearly about upcoming potential as did C Tynan on a live webcast I just viewed.... i also need to say what a nice job channel 6 does with their weather spots in providing some longer range analysis (particularly in comparison to the increased dribble that channel 10 provides with little more than discussing countless temperature ranges, and now rarely shows their 10 day extended)! I know other weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere agree and I post this with hopes that both outlets will "see" it and continue/adjust there coverage as the case may be! I watch the 11pm the other night and all Glenn showed was the 3 day forecast? I never know when they'll show the 10 day? Seems to change day-day? It's like they want viewers to keep viewing/guessing when the 10 day will show up? (ratings) Ch6 is so much more professional (maybe that's why they're always #1) I almost had it w/Glenn/NBC 10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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