KamuSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 You're not. He is the best around Philly.. I agree - he is the thinking man's TV met for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Glenn is a stand up guy. I remember a few years ago he forecasted a big storm that failed to come togther. The next night he went on air, looked straight into the camera and said he blew it -- no excuses, like "I got the upper air pattern right but the weather wrong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Cecily @ 6ABC going with 30-36" in Philly metro, 36-42" LV and 18-24" at the shore. Expects mixed precip in noreasters and 1-2 degree below normal for winter. http://6abc.com/weather/cecilys-winter-weather-outlook/394035/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Cecily @ 6ABC going with 30-36" in Philly metro, 36-42" LV and 18-24" at the shore. Expects mixed precip in noreasters and 1-2 degree below normal for winter. http://6abc.com/weather/cecilys-winter-weather-outlook/394035/ seems like a fairly reasonable forecast to me Not too extreme, but the numbers acknowledge that most signs are pointing to a colder than normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 JB on the upcoming warm up - but more cold to follow "alot of people thought it was going to be a heck of a lot warmer than they do now. Weatherbell has told their clients there was a warm up coming, yes against the severe cold, but against averages quite another thing. And our continued pounding away and letting people know that analogs mean something and to be very careful when the merchants of mild take the field because there are ambushes lurking. If you want to call us the Kings of Cold, since mid winter 12-13, I dont think anyone on our team would have a problem with that" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 In addition to the WB team beating the drum all week regarding the Thanksgiving snow threat JB is seeing the relatively brief warm up coming before the locking in to what is their current winter forecast....we shall see "I do think a relaxation is coming for the first 10 days or so of December. Its something almost all the coldest el nino winters have. Some have outright warm Decembers ( 1957,1965) There is alot of bouncing around going on out there, but when the smoke clears, I feel very good about what we said before the season. Of the 5 months where the nation is most concerned about energy and snow, the first one is certainly out of the box with gusto. And guess what may happen? Suppose you get this and the cold that is touted.. You get to December 1st and while its getting warmer, all of sudden you see what may be the turn to colder mid and late December Certainly beating the drumstick for a cold turkey day with snow around would be a feather in our cap if this tail turned out this way." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Latest from JB "GFS has continued expected westward shift toward ECMWF on Snow...think overall idea of leader through Midwest with follower up east coast FROM LAST WEEK is good this week" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Latest from NJ PA Weather (Steve D) For PHL and nearby burbs - Cold rain for most of the storm, ending as light snow on Thanskgiving with minor accumulations on cold surfaces - for far N and W burbs - Rain, mixing with snow at times. Ending as snow with accumulations up to 4" possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Latest from JB at WB "So the call continues to be the more westward idea on the precip and the more robust snowstorm that the ECMWF has. That is not to say the GFS can not be right, it certainly can. But it is to say what you are seeing in them plays into the known error bias on storms. As it is, both the GFS and the ECWMF for Thanksgiving Time have a heck of a storm, though the ECMWF is the bigger of the two as far as extent of snow and the spread a bit further west. I think these larger scale ideas are what to really focus on, at least for me, for they do change where a model thinks a track will be. Given the time of the year, and all the warmth around 2 days before the event, its tough to believe some of the further east ideas for me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 http://epawaweather.com/weather-alert-maps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lehigh Weather Authority Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Per JB at WB "Prettier people than I can take over the storm now and the battles rage on the blogs over the amounts in the big cities. This is a fight DC to NYC in the cities, Though once to Boston, its much more snow. I don't have much change. I like 3-6 park, about 3 PHL and 1-3 DC, but once 20 miles northwest, up about 200 feet heckuva storm" "Put it this way, its a heck of a lot more than what was being said ( or written off) last week. So I am not going to play in the backyard brawls over someones picnic deck. Not that I am above it, I have just learned that if I can give you some ideas before hand on some things, then I will leave it to the others to clean up any mess, or lack of it. Now look, you guys fight nice, and remember once you change a forecast, you forfeit what you said before.. right? I do like overall a blend of the NAM and ECMWF" Now to the problem at my hand. First of all a heck of a way to run a warm up next week with a high cresting at 30.80 over the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NICE!!! https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 NICE!!! https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Seems the hardy HRRR has picked up on the rapid change tomorrow AM that Hurricanes computer indicated. Bust potential good and bad is huge tomorrow is going to be fun! Still can't believe it is only November and talking a second event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 similar (on a smaller scale) to two weeks ago when everyone thought the rain would switch over around midnight and it actually kicked in by 6pm... I actually enjoy watching these type of (rain to snow) storms unfold as there is often that element of surprise... seem to recall a huge bust back on Dec 31, 1975 (the year they moved the liberty bell)... just rain was forcasted and woke up to a foot of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2014 Author Share Posted November 26, 2014 similar (on a smaller scale) to two weeks ago when everyone thought the rain would switch over around midnight and it actually kicked in by 6pm... I actually enjoy watching these type of (rain to snow) storms unfold as there is often that element of surprise... seem to recall a huge bust back on Dec 31, 1975 (the year they moved the liberty bell)... just rain was forcasted and woke up to a foot of snow!! That seemed to be a better surge of cold advection than this one. This system is stronger and holds it up. NW of I-95 it will probably make it... along I-95 itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Steve D at NJPA weather has my area in 6-10" with 2" to 4" toward Philly - seems a bit aggressive but what do I know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 From LC at WeatherAmerica's Saturday Newsletter "You just have that feeling that the upcoming DJF period will be "something special". After all, the coverage of ice and snow across the Northern Hemisphere is well above normal. Repeated connection of tropical forcing from the western and central Pacific Ocean to the polar westerlies has produced one of the coldest Novembers in history. And a weak El Nino is working in concert with warm water pooling along the entire rim of the shoreline of western North America. So even with the recent relaxation of the 500MB longwave pattern there is still that general sense that more atmospheric theatrics are coming. It is just a question of when, and what feature could "trip the trigger", so to speak, before bedlam ensues and populated areas experience more harsh cold and snowfall.Over the past few months I have been calling attention to "typhoon injection syndrome", where a particularly large tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean joins with a linkage between convective groups associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies, culminating in the enhancement of an mAk vortex below the Aleutian Islands. Such a huge, cold gyre would then pump up ridging in the -EPO, +PNA, and -AO positions. The furthest chain-reaction result, of course, would be a plunge of bitter cold temperatures into the lower 48 states to the right of the Continental Divide.As a first order of business, please note that the analog-derived formula for monthly and seasonal forecasting has performed extremely well. Yes, we did see a cold, though volatile November with some states (such as Texas) having their coldest eleventh month on record. And it has become apparent that the milder alignment should control at least the next ten days. But then the typhoon scenario rears its ugly head. There is excellent agreement among the numerical models concerning the formation of a powerful tropical cyclone from the disturbed area now working westward above Papua/New Guinea. This feature is predicted to intensify greatly, then smash into the central and northern Philippines in the 6 - 10 day time frame. Recurving around a growing heat ridge over the western Pacific Ocean, this typhoon would rocket northeastward and become enmeshed within a sub-Aleutian vortex. As was the case with Super Typhoon Nuri, the resultant "superstorm" would build atmospheric height profiles throughout Alaska, western Canada and the Arctic Circle. So at some point during the 11 - 15 day period, we are going to see a ferocious blast of cold slip down off of that snowpack into the Great Plains and points eastward.It is entirely possible that this could be a transient cAk intrusion. You will notice how warm the West and much of the Grain Belt is in the December analog profile. But around mid-month, the southern branch jet stream will activate, shooting a potent storm along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard. So I am confident that at some point between December 15 and 22, interaction between high-latitude ridging and a deep Dixie/East Coast storm will send the brutal reality of winter cold as far south as Mexico and Cuba.And as an extra bonus, maybe chances for plentiful ice and snow for the Hanukkah/Christmas/New Year's period.See what a cheery mood I am with the arrival of the holiday season?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 JB tweets " idea of eastern blow torch is poppycock thru mid month backed up by non US models EC looks like Euro with snow in 6 to 10 days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 poppycock.....lol...WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 That and through Urban Dictionary poppycock is British term for bullshiet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It won't necessarily be a "blowtorch", but the overall temps are still likely to be at least a bit above normal for the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It won't necessarily be a "blowtorch", but the overall temps are still likely to be at least a bit above normal for the next two weeks. Yep, my thoughts. Overall not a torch but warm enough that winter is on the back burner for a bit. Many 40's highs w/occasionally some 50+ temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 NOT according to Hurricane for beginnning of next week... even a shot that we transition over to snow by Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 JB in a tweet today - not saying I believe him just sharing..... " If ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and Canadian are correct (GFS stands alone as non-event) we will see how warm next week is in the Northeast...while many shovel snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 JB picking on one of his favorite targets.....the ole GFS " In the meantime, once again, major development several days out near the east coast, looks like it was not seen by the flagship of the US model fleet. Kind of hard to believe how many times this happens. But at the very least, you can watch for things like this and see if you can pick up the ones the model hits, and the ones it does not. As in most cases, it rarely scores the coup" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 ANOTHER JB BUST JB in a tweet today - not saying I believe him just sharing..... " If ECMWF, UKMET, JMA and Canadian are correct (GFS stands alone as non-event) we will see how warm next week is in the Northeast...while many shovel snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 UM no... JB tweets " idea of eastern blow torch is poppycock thru mid month backed up by non US models EC looks like Euro with snow in 6 to 10 days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 UM no... Dude why do you hate jb so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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