RedSky Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Paul Knight gave his winter forecast to Weather World Forecast winter 2016-17 Near to somewhat below normal temperature averaged out and a dry January - Sounds like a slightly milder version of the 2009 winter. I like his forecast after watching his video it was well thought out. I'll take it over last years +12 December torch. the blizzard notwithstanding in Jan of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 I imagine Glenn's winter forecast (and others) should be coming out this week or so. Looking at the past 2 winter forecast they were released on Nov 12 and 13th. Hard to believe this will be his 20th year making predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 WB Team has updated their Winter forecast with headlines as follows: Extreme cold December possible ( 1 to 3 degrees below normal over the Northeast including the PHL area) Analog technique favors back and forth with leftover colder than normal January/February Still relatively high uncertainty Swath of above normal snows over Pacific Northwest to western High Plains and in the Great Lakes and Northeast Texas, southern Plains and Southeast look milder Core of cold should stay mainly to the north The WeatherBELL team has settled on the strongest analogs of 1966-67, 1983-84 and 1995-96 with 2013-14 double-weighted and single weights to 1960-61, 2005-06, 2008-09 and 2014-15. The pure analog is colder, but to adjust for modeling that is warmer and a more modern climatology, a degree was added across the board. The Verdict A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is. Overall in terms of the last 8 seasons, this would be the fifth coldest out of the eight. The worst case it could wind up in the top 3, though. I seriously doubt it would be warmer than the warmest three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 On 11/13/2016 at 6:18 PM, Birds~69 said: I imagine Glenn's winter forecast (and others) should be coming out this week or so. Looking at the past 2 winter forecast they were released on Nov 12 and 13th. Hard to believe this will be his 20th year making predictions. And it is...it's severe winter weather week on NBC10 and he said his 20th outlook will be coming out this week. He didn't say when but probably Thurs/Fri...11pm. Just a guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 On 11/13/2016 at 6:43 PM, ChescoPaWxman said: WB Team has updated their Winter forecast with headlines as follows: Extreme cold December possible ( 1 to 3 degrees below normal over the Northeast including the PHL area) Analog technique favors back and forth with leftover colder than normal January/February Still relatively high uncertainty Swath of above normal snows over Pacific Northwest to western High Plains and in the Great Lakes and Northeast Texas, southern Plains and Southeast look milder Core of cold should stay mainly to the north The WeatherBELL team has settled on the strongest analogs of 1966-67, 1983-84 and 1995-96 with 2013-14 double-weighted and single weights to 1960-61, 2005-06, 2008-09 and 2014-15. The pure analog is colder, but to adjust for modeling that is warmer and a more modern climatology, a degree was added across the board. The Verdict A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is. Overall in terms of the last 8 seasons, this would be the fifth coldest out of the eight. The worst case it could wind up in the top 3, though. I seriously doubt it would be warmer than the warmest three. I am guessing they will bust in our area based on the overall consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 15 hours ago, hazwoper said: I am guessing they will bust in our area based on the overall consensus. I believe they are saying areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 19 hours ago, hazwoper said: I am guessing they will bust in our area based on the overall consensus. Analogs of 67,96,2014 and 2015 yeah there is no JB hype in that WB winter forecast omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 -1F December qualifies as extreme cold? Are you serious Clarke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Ch 6 winter outlook tonight at 11pm...wouldn't be a bit surprised if Glenn does his tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I imagine Ch 6 will be little more than a rehash of AccuWx's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 JB at WB update today shows the pattern developing according to the WB forecast....says this December will be very different from last 2 years. Says snow will be on the ground from interior mid-atlantic through plains come Christmas. I have been telling all my friends/co-workers that it is a stone cold solid lock that this December will be colder than last year!! How is that for sticking my neck out there? Of course last year was the warmest December ever....so not such a stretch! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Glenn just gave out his winter forecast: December -2 temps 4" January normal temps 14" February +2 8" March -2 4" Total: 28-36" -2 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 24 minutes ago, AnthonyDabbundo said: Glenn just gave out his winter forecast: December -2 temps 4" January normal temps 14" February +2 8" March -2 4" Total: 28-36" -2 temps Damn, I missed it! He usually does it at 11pm. Maybe he wanted to beat ch 6 outlook at 11pm tonight? Overall, I'll take it. Glad his snowiest month is Jan. The +2 Feb temps is a little surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I love Glenn....but just like JB has a cold bias....Glenn has a warm bias. That's why it is best to take a cross section of all the great professionals out there Like JB/Glenn/LC /SD and even the crazy man from Richmond. That said for Glenn to have a minus 2 and and normal for January is a good sign for those of you that are rooting for a cold winter....should be interesting. Looks like a fast start to winter in December - enjoy! Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I must say I was pleasantly surprised by how "bullish" Glenn is. I like him because he tends to be conservative and doesn't hype too much. Here's hoping his outlook verifies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I'd imagine Sheena will replay Glenn's forecast at 11pm? What may work out...nbc10 does weather then sports but Ch6 does sports then weather so I may be able to catch both weather outlooks at 11pm. "Clicker" skills are vital... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I'd imagine Sheena will replay Glenn's forecast at 11pm? What may work out...nbc10 does weather then sports but Ch6 does sports then weather so I may be able to catch both weather outlooks at 11pm. "Clicker" skills are vital... Or a DVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 22 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: Or a DVR Don't have DVR and rarely watch TV besides sports. May cut the cord soon... Ch 6 winter outlook. Cecily emphasizing many smaller storms rather than one big mother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Missed the winter hour special last night for WW and Hurricanes winter outlook double doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Hurricanes-20th-Annual-Winter-Forecast-401555475.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Interesting. I hope everyone is right about the cold Dec. I enjoy a white Xmas like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Fox 29 Winter Outlook: -Going with a snowy Jan like Glenn -Unlike Glenn, going with -1 temps for Feb (Glenn has +2) -Unlike Glenn, no snow in Dec...mostly rain. (burbs may be a different story) Snowfall Map: http://tinyurl.com/zajxgbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I see mostly bullish forecasts out there. Interesting analogs. 6's forecasts annoy me. They are so afraid of busting. Glenn gets my vote. Last few years I think he verified really nicely. EPAWA looked really similar to another outlook I saw but I forgot to save the links. High uncertainty over outcomes but high certainty on the mechanics of how winter is going to work this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Not on-topic here but very cool looking Unit! https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/bloomsky-world-s-smartest-weather-camera-station-technology#/backers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 DT (WxRisk) 2016-2017 Winter Forecast https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalshort.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Good long range temp-wise from Christmas-New years (unlike last year)...throw in a clipper or two and I'll be super happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Judah Cohen 2016-2017 Winter Outlook https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/22/judah-cohen-winter-outlook-cold-for-eastern-u-s-snowy-in-washington/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 26, 2016 Share Posted November 26, 2016 According to Accuweather extended forecast for my area, no snow in December with the first accumulating snowfall occurring around the 16th of January as a wintry mix that being the only snowfall aside from some snow showers/flurries thru Feb 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 15 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: According to Accuweather extended forecast for my area, no snow in December with the first accumulating snowfall occurring around the 16th of January as a wintry mix that being the only snowfall aside from some snow showers/flurries thru Feb 9. And... as a side note, they can't even predict rainfall amounts accurately inside of 24 hrs ‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 From JB at WeatherBell from this AM "The 6-10 is cold, it gets colder again in the 10-15, but there is a warm up on day 10 in the middle and that could be our first storm that can not get all the way to the lakes, but instead runs to the Ohio valley and is forced to be handed off further south cause of the western atlantic trough. Just like early this week I kept pounding away at the overwarmed period for this upcoming weekend. ( One more reminder in case you forgot.. 12z Dec 2 from days out was supposed to look like this) would look for that system that is in the southwest to kick out and then shear out through the mid-atlantic states. Instead of a storm running up to the lakes, we get a flatter wave with ice and snow down to I70 in the plains and perhaps all the way to the east coast when that comes out. Lets see if we can pick that out too...But the bottom line is using overall methods certainly whipped the models for yet another weekend ( next weekend) and now lets see if we can play with the period around day 10 to see if using the large scale ideas can help" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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