anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Steve D at NYNJPA weather just updated as he has a low confidence forecast of the 1st storm now moving close enough to impact the I95 corridor with 1-3" PHL area and 2-4" toward shore (maybe more) - with less than an inch back to West Chester and nothing back in my neck of the woods.And he did very well with the blizzard.... NotSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hence what he terms a low confidence forecast.... And he did very well with the blizzard.... NotSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 So Eric Horst at MU says on twitter "still a little too early to issue an accumulation forecast but given complex split low set up. But a small to moderate plowable snow seems likely" (that would be for his area in SC PA...this lines up well with JB. JB says he thinks the places of biggest snows this week will be from DC up into SC PA and then up in New England with both PHL and NYC seeing no more than 2" from the event this week....but warns that he believes both PHL and NYC see at least 6" of snow in the Sunday to Tuesday period next week. Points to the 2003 event with a relatively minor low attacking the arctic high.....causing a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 And he did very well with the blizzard.... Not Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk He is terrible. DT is just as bad the past 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 He is terrible. DT is just as bad the pas 2 years Yup... I tell ya what , Guarino nailed the blizzard, but what happened to him after he got fired?? He has like 6 Facebook accounts with different spellings of his last name. ShadySent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 From EPWA Montgomery: Snow showers after 9pm until 5am. C-1" by 5am, snow picks back up after 9am Tues, ends around 3am Wed. Snow: 3-5", 5-9" Upper Providence- Horsham SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 JB on the upcoming big east coast storm "3 storms are going to be used to analog the snow amounts next week March 2-4 1994, Feb 13-15 1984, Dec 26-27 2012. One of the them was a huge rainstorm all the way back here and yes I see the euro but it looks like its developing the upper low too far south and by doing so, has too much ridge in front. I like the storm to the Ohio valley, the reforming over Ga and coming up the coast just inland. Obviously in the big cities that is snow to rain. But the euro makes little sense for instance as the upper low track in winter is a classic areas just west of the track but it has rain all the way back to Cleveland at one time with this. In addition the model warms for instance, State College from 24 to 40 degrees while preciping in 6-12 hours on a southeast wind. So while possible, I dont think its plausible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Joe B with a nice write up on his views for the upcoming event. He maintains this will be a 2 track low (I have not heard a lot of that being stated from the NWS write ups) but he see one up to PIT and the other right up I95. He says this is crucial since while this will go over to rain in the big I95 cities the I81 corridor to the crest of the Apps may be in for a major ice storm after 3 to 6" of snow. He says when the Euro finally starts to realize that the temp is not going to 50 in Harrisburg....but is going to 55 in ACY it will adjust the 2nd feature east....so basically the end result will be what he described back on Wednesday. Final message is the process that leads ot heavy snow as far south as VA is going to act as a barrier to warmth surging too far inland - look for a monster mess in the piedmont with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 My call - 2-3" of snow , freezing rain for a few hours for a crunchy layer, monsoon in the mid 30s by 3am (Lehigh valley ) Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 JB just posted on Weatherbell that we are 2 hours into the game and NAM already 1 to 3 degrees to warm around DC He likes 3 to 6 around DC fading to 1 to 3 in NYC but getting worried the 3 to 6 carries all the way to NYC - With SE winds blowing into the mid atlantic states now the wave is not up there yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 JB just posted on Weatherbell that we are 2 hours into the game and NAM already 1 to 3 degrees to warm around DC He likes 3 to 6 around DC fading to 1 to 3 in NYC but getting worried the 3 to 6 carries all the way to NYC - With SE winds blowing into the mid atlantic states now the wave is not up there yet.... I cant see 3-6" making it anywhere near NYC or even PHL. The onset of precip is being delayed here and the WAA push in the upper levels will increase quickly IMO. Still think 1-2" with a short period of ZR in I95 corridor with perhaps a bit of an extended period in the NW burbs (Paul your area especially and perhaps even by me). "A storm delayed is a storm denied" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hi Haz agreed 100% Paul I cant see 3-6" making it anywhere near NYC or even PHL. The onset of precip is being delayed here and the WAA push in the upper levels will increase quickly IMO. Still think 1-2" with a short period of ZR in I95 corridor with perhaps a bit of an extended period in the NW burbs (Paul your area especially and perhaps even by me). "A storm delayed is a storm denied" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Nothing on our site here yet....but suspect we may see a thread by this weekend.... many professional METS already chirping about the next threat next week in the Feb 24-26 timeframe. See WxRisk with a Miller A type and his disgust of GFS seeing nothing yet and JB and Weatherbell all over a big storm idea for next week. JB for one is not saying a big snowstorm but a big storm for that timeframe. Not sure if it goes up the coast or west of the big cities but it is on the radar. Interesting times ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 From JB at WB today "pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So is he still thinking no more big snows for philly and nyc?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So is he still thinking no more big snows for philly and nyc?!LOL!I'm not sure what guidance he is using but I zero to little N Atl blocking on any LR ops nor any of the ens means. And he is also ignoring the strong Western Atlantic Ridge (see latest CMC/GFS for how this keeps storm track inland/warmish as opposed to being able to run off the coast). These "the pattern looks ripe in 8-12 days" predictions have not and are not working out this season for whatever reason. It's easy to point to the strong El Nino I suppose but I wonder if it has anything to do partly with the anamolous sst's near Greenland? The NAO predictions have seemed to crap the bed the most in recent months of all teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's over. Welcome Spring. Glad to see you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 SSTs say it all. Winter is over from what I can see. Really never got fully started down here. Hope you all took pictures during the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out....says winter not over - despite what many here believe (not saying he is right of course!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out....says winter not over - despite what many here believe (not saying he is right of course!) JB every year says Winter is not over till about Memorial Day. Looking like a repeat of last night according to the GFS. Hopefully not as severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 JB highlighting the early march timeframe with the more favorable NAO for an east coast event....thinks this one will not go west of apps like last couple. Sees a similarity but stresses not a forecast like the blizzard. Sees same southern branch weakness that Euro falls this far out....says winter not over - despite what many here believe (not saying he is right of course!)Got the pattern right at 500mb, but the surface didn't respond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Iceman - too funny! that is exactly what he was lamenting yesterday!! Got the pattern right at 500mb, but the surface didn't respond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 So is he still thinking no more big snows for philly and nyc?! Ditto?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Ditto?! Its over..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Its over.....Agreed 100%. Wouldn't be surprised by a few March snow showers at some point during the first half of the month, but for all intents and purposes in Philly proper, it's over. I keep seeing posts around the forums that day 10 looks promising, but this is merely a broken record in this winter of shattered LR dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Agreed 100%. Wouldn't be surprised by a few March snow showers at some point during the first half of the month, but for all intents and purposes in Philly proper, it's over. I keep seeing posts around the forums that day 10 looks promising, but this is merely a broken record in this winter of shattered LR dreams. Wouldn't rule out a minor event but I think we're finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Euro day 7 looks interesting considering everything has trended north up to and including the blizzard. Of course it's been an awful model this winter and the GFS has just a weak wave but something to watch time is almost up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ECM ensembles north for the day 7 system so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 ECM ensembles north for the day 7 system so...Murphy's Law that as soon as I throw in the towel a threat pops up lol. Alas, its the Euro and hasn't been its old rock-solid self in the LR this year. Garner some more support from other guidance and get us within 4 or 5 days and I'll jump all-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yeah Euro has been awful this year. considering no other guidance is showing this, i'd say it has a very low chance of occurring. seems like another thread the needle type set up and those rarely work in january let alone march... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now