ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hi Haz I like you go way back to the very beginning....while I know his biases and he has many. He still gives you his thoughts and reasoning....not just a feeling and not model regurgitation like so many. I don't need a met to read me the model I can do that myself! What I do like is a met to explain to me what is NOT in the model. Not sure he is pushing the big dog as much as he can see a way to the big dog. I always understand that so no skin off my back to have him do that. Plus his long range pattern recognition is as good as it gets. So is it worth the $$ for me to get his insights.....absolutely!! Plus his Weather Bell models and others like Joe D make it a tremendous value IMHO. Is he right all the time....hell no....but who is? Enjoy the weather.....ah you remember the rest!take care Paul you will all come around. years ago I felt the same way about JB. I even purchased AccuPro to read his blogs and watch his videos (Big Dog,Long Ranger etc), but after years of listening to him I came to the same conclusion of nearly eveyone who has followed him at one point or another.....he is always pushing the big dog, even when it is obviously not there in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 you will all come around. years ago I felt the same way about JB. I even purchased AccuPro to read his blogs and watch his videos (Big Dog,Long Ranger etc), but after years of listening to him I came to the same conclusion of nearly eveyone who has followed him at one point or another.....he is always pushing the big dog, even when it is obviously not there in the slightest. No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hi Haz I like you go way back to the very beginning....while I know his biases and he has many. He still gives you his thoughts and reasoning....not just a feeling and not model regurgitation like so many. I don't need a met to read me the model I can do that myself! What I do like is a met to explain to me what is NOT in the model. Not sure he is pushing the big dog as much as he can see a way to the big dog. I always understand that so no skin off my back to have him do that. Plus his long range pattern recognition is as good as it gets. So is it worth the $$ for me to get his insights.....absolutely!! Plus his Weather Bell models and others like Joe D make it a tremendous value IMHO. Is he right all the time....hell no....but who is? Enjoy the weather.....ah you remember the rest! take care Paul I Couldn't have said it better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Enjoy the weather.....ah you remember the rest! take care Paul ....its the only weather youve got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 No....some/many of us wont....I purchased him for several years (and wxbell). I think he's great, but for my level of need, it didnt justify the expense....thats all. As many of you that dont like him (and his political rants...yes theyre a little much), many of us grew up watching him on weather world and following him on Accuwx. I will ALWAYS appreciate his abilities....done. Nut This is JB about 8-10 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkaMzV9KWWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 On his PM update he mentions only 49 of 51 Euro member do not support his thoughts.....no surprise he said he is stubborn guy and will maintain his idea.....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 On his PM update he mentions only 49 of 51 Euro member do not support his thoughts.....no surprise he said he is stubborn guy and will maintain his idea.....for nowSo, unless you typo'd, 2 of 51 ens members support his idea that parts of the Northeast see "more snow Jan 28-29 than the past Blizzard". I believe in his report this AM he is referencing Boston (which did not have Blizzard conditions, mind you). And he is "stubbornly" sticking to his guns/forecast. And you don't see the problem here? He is forecasting using catch-phrases (blizzard) and tugging at your emotions all the while pulling for a big storm when not a single op model suggests it. I disagree with the poster that said JB is great because he knows when to fold, take a bust, and admit he was wrong. If anything, he is a poor short range forecaster because he doesn't see the err in his ways to step up and change his forecast. A good forecaster adjusts when there is model support suggesting to. Obviously not flopping with every single model run, but JB rarely throws in the towel. In some occupations this is a great value to have....the go down with the ship mentality. In meteorology, it is not. It makes you look bad when you fail over and over. Do I respect the man, his education, his experience? Absolutely. I just don't see him as a great forecaster save from some of his LR stuff. End rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 DT whiffed on his first observed snow fall posted on facebook today but this new batch is better (though I fear it still doesn't give the Allentown Jackpot its earned fame). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Hi Ralph I do not see a problem here....again he clearly stated that he is well aware that 49 of 51 members of the Euro do NOT agree....and he very freely admits he may very well be wrong (so do NOT bet with him) but he still has a scientific reason why he believes his ideas have merit....clearly he said right up front he did not want to hype by stating that this storm has NO SHOT of being anything like the blizzard....he said top end if it all worked out the way he saw it - it could be 6" for DC and 12" for Beantown....so yes for Boston it had the potential to be bigger than the last storm. He never said this was a lock of a forecast....I never took it that way. To many folks read his blog - which is not a forecast and take it as such. I and most of us who subscribe do not use his blog as a forecast. However, his thoughts are indeed valuable to me and many others because he does not do what many on here do - and go up and down with every model run etc. I saw someone here earlier see a model run and said....next. That is clearly not what weather forecasting is all about. You need to take all of the know biases of forecasters and sources such as (Henry M - follows models/ Steve D finds all that may go wrong/ Dave T....smart but emotional / LC - a well thought out forecaster but cautious/ EPAWX authority etc. and take all of that into consideration and then bump that up against the best final source of forecasting the great team of professionals at the NWS in Mount Holly. JB and the others I list above have the luxury to blog their thoughts (they do forecast for clients but not for folks on this board in their backyard) and while they are often very helpful they are not on the hook to a person living in this area as is the NWSFO is on a daily basis. I maintain they all have a place in this very inexact science that is weather forecasting. I appreciate all of them...I may personally value them differently to ultimately inform my personal thoughts of what may happen - but I try to never bad mouth any of these professionals. They all add additional info and perspective. Thanks to all of these professionals for sharing their thoughts. By the way it also does not bother me in the least that almost none of the above professionals choose to post here.....or at the other local forum (which I also think is fabulous....and does not detract from the value of this site) again I take all of this information and appreciate all. Just my 2 cents! Paul So, unless you typo'd, 2 of 51 ens members support his idea that parts of the Northeast see "more snow Jan 28-29 than the past Blizzard". I believe in his report this AM he is referencing Boston (which did not have Blizzard conditions, mind you). And he is "stubbornly" sticking to his guns/forecast. And you don't see the problem here? He is forecasting using catch-phrases (blizzard) and tugging at your emotions all the while pulling for a big storm when not a single op model suggests it.I disagree with the poster that said JB is great because he knows when to fold, take a bust, and admit he was wrong. If anything, he is a poor short range forecaster because he doesn't see the err in his ways to step up and change his forecast. A good forecaster adjusts when there is model support suggesting to. Obviously not flopping with every single model run, but JB rarely throws in the towel. In some occupations this is a great value to have....the go down with the ship mentality. In meteorology, it is not. It makes you look bad when you fail over and over. Do I respect the man, his education, his experience? Absolutely. I just don't see him as a great forecaster save from some of his LR stuff.End rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 What? No JB update on his thoughts for this weeks system? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 DT had a nice post today about the threat of an early February storm as many have indicated. He says it shows a Miller A like the last storm. Maps look like nearly identical between todays 12z 500mb EURO valid for 12z Saturday Feb 6. and the 7 am observation on Jan 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 DT had a nice post today about the threat of an early February storm as many have indicated. He says it shows a Miller A like the last storm. Maps look like nearly identical between todays 12z 500mb EURO valid for 12z Saturday Feb 6. and the 7 am observation on Jan 21. Looks like he started his own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 EPS say the OP is all by itself. Teleconnections are decent with a nice ridge out West but really weak signal for a big storm....for now. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 EPS say the OP is all by itself. Teleconnections are decent with a nice ridge out West but really weak signal for a big storm....for now. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Do we know what the ensembles and OP looked like last time at this point before the last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Do we know what the ensembles and OP looked like last time at this point before the last storm?They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-) I don't care for DT but I think the pattern that sets up there screams snow at some point... -EPO, -AO, split flow, pumping up the ridge out west, maybe we get a storm at the beginning of the shift as the cold air comes in but I've noticed we tend to do better with a rising AO and retreating cold as the pattern is getting ready to reload, may have to wait for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I don't care for DT but I think the pattern that sets up there screams snow at some point... -EPO, -AO, split flow, pumping up the ridge out west, maybe we get a storm at the beginning of the shift as the cold air comes in but I've noticed we tend to do better with a rising AO and retreating cold as the pattern is getting ready to reload, may have to wait for that.Oh hell yeah, the teleconnections suggest we are far from finished with winter. And the pattern after Feb 5-ish turns from AN to N/BN. The one thing different this go around appears the STJ wont be quite as active to start out, but trends better as we move past Feb 10-ish. I'm not against this threat, I'm merely stating the facts that for now, there is not much support for a specific threat 240 hours or further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 They were in fair agreement at day 6-7 before suppressing the storm. Too far out to get excited or start a thread based on one OP run with minimal ens support from Euro or GFS. But that's just me. If you're trying to puff your chest by noting the potential first before anyone else, then by all means, start a thread :-) Looks like DT already started a thread. I agree too early. No ego's here just trying to get more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Looks like DT already started a thread. I agree too early. No ego's here just trying to get more info.Sorry, I wasnt referring to YOU, lol. But rather the big dog himself ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Oh hell yeah, the teleconnections suggest we are far from finished with winter. And the pattern after Feb 5-ish turns from AN to N/BN. The one thing different this go around appears the STJ wont be quite as active to start out, but trends better as we move past Feb 10-ish. I'm not against this threat, I'm merely stating the facts that for now, there is not much support for a specific threat 240 hours or further out. I only need 8 more inches to win a bet with a friend (I said 35+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Sorry, I wasnt referring to YOU, lol. But rather the big dog himself ;-) Ah makes more sense. Indeed he is probably one of the most aggressive forecasters in pushing the Euro's newest threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. Sounds like we blew our nut on one storm (although good)....Spring pending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. He was as pessimistic as I think I've ever seen him regarding the pattern - basically writing off winter after 2/15 unless the MJO can get to cold phases 1,2,3 which really isn't forecasted at this time. The problem is that by the time it gets there, we can be well into March and below normal temps yield us a cold rain and fog. I also think also he's giving the strat warming too much credit as it's really just a temporary shift/split rather than a disappearance of the cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 JB touting the MJO as causing the warmth to be delayed but not denied (cannot fight the tropics). Now days 5 to 15 will be cold but centered in the Midwest for cold and snow - including the next big storm after this week which he says will likely go up west of the apps. Basically his thinking is while February will be cold relative to averages it will NOT be as cold as he originally thought. Also thinking we will likely NOT see any big snow storms in the east. JB cancelled winter? Here comes winter!!!!! Woo hoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 JB cancelled winter? Here comes winter!!!!! Woo hoo It doesn't work like that.... If JB cancels winter, it is truly over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Watch February turn into an unexpected rat then we get 12" March 15. That would make for some kinda winter. I know one thing severe season HAS to be better than last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Phil agrees with JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 DT has a modest snow for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Steve D at NYNJPA weather just updated as he has a low confidence forecast of the 1st storm now moving close enough to impact the I95 corridor with 1-3" PHL area and 2-4" toward shore (maybe more) - with less than an inch back to West Chester and nothing back in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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