Redmorninglight Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Dr. Joe D with Wxbell says the models are catching on to the coming pattern change which should get underway around the New YearI hope so. It would be nice to see a pattern flip ahead of expectations for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Larry Cosgrove and I were chatting online earlier and he stated that in 2 weeks from today, this area will wish that we were experiencing the current conditions again that we are seeing outside. He says winter is going to turn on with a fury we haven't seen in quite sometime with prolonged bitter cold and abundant snows being the rule rather than the exception. He says the MJO is telling and this supposed pattern reversal will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Hi Ralph, Not sure it will be as severe as LC paints - although I do respect his opinion.....but a much colder than December than January (how's that for an easy call?) seems in the cards. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 DT (WxRisk) update on the probable upcoming pattern change. https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Many pro mets continue to honk for a major pattern reversal mid-late January. This is certainly welcome news. I've said since October this will likely be a year which features a 2-3 week winter in late January/early Feb and it certainly looks to potentially be panning out that way. I will take whatever we can get, as long as it's not a complete shutout in terms of snowfall. Only thing I dont like on the long range progs are when any cold does arrive, it overwhelms the pattern and pushes the STJ and storm track well-South and off the coast. Let's hope that's not how it plays out but I can certainly see the warm/wet and cold/dry pattern verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ralph - if you want snow in this area - the suppressed track is what you want. The American models will always show those as going south and then the correction occurs as we get closer. Better to have the cold and work out the track then need the cold IMHO. Happy New Year Paul Many pro mets continue to honk for a major pattern reversal mid-late January. This is certainly welcome news. I've said since October this will likely be a year which features a 2-3 week winter in late January/early Feb and it certainly looks to potentially be panning out that way. I will take whatever we can get, as long as it's not a complete shutout in terms of snowfall. Only thing I dont like on the long range progs are when any cold does arrive, it overwhelms the pattern and pushes the STJ and storm track well-South and off the coast. Let's hope that's not how it plays out but I can certainly see the warm/wet and cold/dry pattern verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I am not sold on this much ballyhooed pattern change. May be a brief period of real winter that is transient. However if we could get some blocking in the North Atlantic, other indicators are on our side with a big dip in the AO and possible movement of the MJO into phase 8. Keeping fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Glenn seems to be on board for a mid-Jan pattern change, possible storm around the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 From the Joe B at Weatherbell this AM "The idea of a major storm on the east coast in the 8-10 is still very much alive and kicking. The height falls to the south later this week bring a relatively warm storm up on the back side of the arctic air the front part of the week, but a second storm comes out of the gulf this weekend and this has been a target for a week now from me. It will also be my 3rd attempt at snow in the coastal plain this winter from 2 weeks out and so far 0 for 2. I am keeping score. Behind it the whole jet dives in. Can we make a rule. If you said Jan would be warm, no matter how cold it gets, you cant call what will come through the Polar Vortex? Wait till the Meteo media wakes up to what is going on." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 To paraphrase a very interesting JB video from this morning on WeatherBell. He sees - January is looking rougher by the minute and while the GFS is in it's usual la la land - the WeatherBell team is alerting their clients that while January will certainly be cold - in fact he said it will reach levels approaching 2014 with single digits into the big cities and then February will be quite the cold and stormy month. JB also said to expect a lot of folks to start talking about the moderating that will take place after the upcoming cold - but to not be fooled by the folks who will believe the CFS. Of course he pulled out his famed Brazil Meteogram for Chicago and Atlanta remains very confident that the WeatherBell Seasonal snow numbers will be working out real well with well above normal snowfall from the southeast up into and including the Philadelphia Metro area by the time the last flake is counted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This morning JB laying out the GFS being an outlier on day 15 - when both the Euro and Canadian have a deep trof over the east and very cold while the GFS is well....not. JB sees after the first rain event this weekend a 2nd storm will follow and come right up the coast to the mid-atlantic with snow and very cold to follow. Also, is betting someone will hype what is coming as the "Polar Vortex" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Larry Cosgrove and I were chatting online earlier and he stated that in 2 weeks from today, this area will wish that we were experiencing the current conditions again that we are seeing outside. He says winter is going to turn on with a fury we haven't seen in quite sometime with prolonged bitter cold and abundant snows being the rule rather than the exception. He says the MJO is telling and this supposed pattern reversal will not be denied. Half right he got the cold, honorable mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 JB on his morning video today said the next 45 days could be a "snowmageddon type" experience from Texas up through the mid-atlantic with possibly 7 storms that may come up the coast and then to see if they come up all the way....he said it just doesn't get any better than this as far as pattern. We shall see - no hype there - but as a wise man once said.....you don't have to shovel models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 no hype with snowmagedon? JB on his morning video today said the next 45 days could be a "snowmageddon type" experience from Texas up through the mid-atlantic with possibly 7 storms that may come up the coast and then to see if they come up all the way....he said it just doesn't get any better than this as far as pattern. We shall see - no hype there - but as a wise man once said.....you don't have to shovel models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod . The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast. Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct And there may be a second a significant system after January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 "no hype" with snowmagedon? Uhhhhh… That would be what's called "sarcasm"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I so much want to jump on the hype train. If it hasn't left the station when I receive my first trace next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 DT - my tongue was firmly in cheek..... no hype with snowmagedon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I so much want to jump on the hype train. If it hasn't left the station when I receive my first trace next week... Whew so glad i didn't jump on the hype train, just got my first trace and .2" and the train derailed fugitive style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 JB posting on the 12z Euro - sees it correcting on it's "west bias" and is now close to an east coast snow event from Northern PA up thru New England. Then he sees a 2nd storm forming on the arctic front on sunday with a low inland over GA and another one organizing on the VA capes and the model goes from t-.10 to 0.3 to 0.6 and some of that at 20:1. Also says forecasts will bust here early in the week as it will be much colder than current forecasts with single digits spreading southbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 JB posting on the 12z Euro - sees it correcting on it's "west bias" and is now close to an east coast snow event from Northern PA up thru New England. Then he sees a 2nd storm forming on the arctic front on sunday with a low inland over GA and another one organizing on the VA capes and the model goes from t-.10 to 0.3 to 0.6 and some of that at 20:1. Also says forecasts will bust here early in the week as it will be much colder than current forecasts with single digits spreading southbound.Not really clear on implications for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Mainly much colder than previous forecasts for early week and maybe a little more snow with the arctic wave on Sunday into Monday...he very well may be right Not really clear on implications for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Mainly much colder than previous forecasts for early week and maybe a little more snow with the arctic wave on Sunday into Monday...he very well may be right Thanks for clarifying and always keeping "us" updated on JB's latest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 JB is focusing on 3 potential winter events now - 1 small one in front on Wednesday; potential big storm on Friday/Saturday and then one more potential big storm later next week. Sees a lot of similarities to the winter of 65/66. Main story is winter is far from over as February should also have it's share of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DT is worked up tonight over the NWS forecast for central VA as well as the network forecast which are largely the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought Bernie Rayno made an interesting point yesterday -- he sited the old Norm MacDonald rule of thumb, that the latitude at which a storm enters North America tends to be the latitute it exits. Nothing is ever 100% in weather, but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB posted this AM saying he will not be forecasting amounts after this but sees a general 1 to 2 feet from DC to BOS with areas to the west of the big cities LNS/MQS seeing some 30"+ totals. He is riding the Euro control run and says to take 75% of what that is showing and he likes that track and amounts. Also sees another snowstorm later next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Local news outlets really playing on this turning to rain. Actually a little surprised....little support for this attm. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Local news outlets really playing on this turning to rain. Actually a little surprised....little support for this attm. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk You know? I was going to post something about this earlier. David Murphy is always conservative on storms. Almost LOL conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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