Vendor forecast thread

[RedSky]

Patience will be needed for the first half of December. But a good stretch of winter could be settling in at the time it's most wanted around the time of the winter solstice.

 

[ChescoWx]

Per JB this AM

"Wow, that is one cold 8-14, in fact the coldest since December of 2013!"

[ChescoWx]

Per JB this AM on overall winter forecast....he sounds a little concerned me thinks!!

"There is no sugar coating the implication of the Canadian model

Our forecast is out and looks nothing like this, and if it is right, its as bad as it gets a rerun of 11-12 and even a bigger debacle for me at least I had not

spent 6 months forecasting it to be cold. As ugly as it gets"

[Ralph Wiggum]

Larry Cosgrove saying seasonal then turning warm after mid-month with a warm Christmas for us....again. Brief cold snap after the holiday then mild from New Year through late January.

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[RedSky]

Don't jump yet Ralph the ECM weeklies have been oscillating between seasonable and somewhat colder than normal temps mid month into January and have never as yet indicated any extended warmth in that period.  As for the extended canadian that is lol, that one can't get a 5 day right. Sure persistence of the last year could kick in and find us breaking out the bermuda shorts between Christmas and New Years but it's not likely.

 

[ChescoWx]

Final Winter Forecast update from the Weather Bell Team

"largely follows the evolution of the ideas we have had since summer. That included a later start, but updates began to stress the cold up front, which is obvious now. So we have Colder than normal winter for much of U.S. from the Plains eastward Forecast relies heavily on our analogs, the WeatherBELL Pioneer model and the path we have been on, which has been largely correct since last spring.Our snowfall forecast is relying on the cold to produce both Lake Effect and large scale storms over the interior Northeast. The big news is that the core of the heaviest snow is back to the northwest but the big cities should be above normal anyway.The forecast is cold because we feel the cold options will either fight to a draw or win most of the time. This would leave warmth making appearances, most amplified in the Southwest and extending across the South. The feedback of the season, now that cold is coming into North America, is arguing for snow and cold to develop a partnership, as it's the right time of the year for that. In terms of other winters and the potential that is on the table, our forecast is tame, though most certainly at odds with any warmer ideas out there"

[ChescoWx]

JB post after the Euro run today...

"First of all the Sunday night and Monday system is gaining more snow making prominence on the Euro. By Monday morning, that is about as close to I-70 and north as one can get for a call from Tuesday. And lo and behold we have a low cutting under the block and causing more interior northeast snow, and effectively what was supposed to be the big southerly surge in front of monster storm pulling up in the lakes So by Thursday morning this is a pretty good amount of snow for the first week of December. So I think we could fill into the coast. The arctic front pushes and the energy coming around forms a storm that runs to the Mid-Atlantic coast as arctic air comes in. Why not. How many a week ago thought this situation Sunday night into Monday and the system out of the southwest had a shot at all this. Yes I see the threat in the 10-15.. It may be there. But don't miss what could be a lot of challenge for snow lovers before. Good way to get a December to Remember as I think it will be, started. Heh at least the chance is there

[Ralph Wiggum]

Didnt JB throw in the towel just a few days ago??

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[ChescoWx]

Nah...no towel just mentioned the oh Canada Model that if true (which he did not believe) then troubled times ahead. Of course all that said....this year is far from a slam dunk for either cold or warm. I know you are a traditionally negative guy....and you could be right. But with no clear signals either way -the most likely outcome is a fairly normal winter. But a lot of the youngins will think a normal Philly winter of 22" of snow or a normal winter of 36" of snow out here in the NW Philly burbs is somehow a disappointing winter....they don't understand climatology.

[zenmsav6810]

Seems like early winter keeps getting postponed. I know people keep talking about King Euro but what King Euro giveth, King Euro taketh. I've always advocated for Christmas happening around January 15th instead... Mother Nature owes us a white Christmas... its been awhile. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

LC going with mean trof in center of nation thru New Year at least with warmth on both coasts. One of the rare times I disagree with him.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.

[ChescoWx]

LC is one of my all-time favorites! Really enjoyed his time on Philly TV - he is missed.

That said he has had some rough longer time forecast challenges the last couple years....the only sure thing is this December will be much much colder than last year!! How is that for going out on the proverbial limb??

[WEATHERBUFF]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.
 

He has not done too well with his forecasts lately....look at last winter.

[Shu Suzuki]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cosgrove updated again today. Says brief cold shot later this week but transient as the progressive/zonal pattern locks in thru the last days of January. He is saying mild East of the Apps thru very late January. Not what I wanted to hear this morning.
 

... I guess this means winter over?...

 

Cosgrov has been terrible for some time now...  It's just December 4th...

[ChescoWx]

From JB at WeatherBell

"please reference that with my plea to cherish the challenge of this pattern.. I am not talking about snow in your back yard ( actually in this I am) I am talking about the fun in trying to sort out the physical realities of pattern where a lot of things are competing .I am very concerned that the wave on the arctic front will be the real deal to put snow down all the way to the Ohio river and the east coast Jersey north. The emperor of the north is coming and he likes his white carpet laid down before him. Notes and asides. I am hearing alot of grumbling about the warmup day 8/9 in the east ( then the cold comes again, assuming it left, or put it this way, tries to leave) Now anyone remember the Christmas outbreak in 1980? Was drizzling in NYC 3 days later. Same thing in 1983! Or how about the blizzard of 96... Son of Blizzard a week later turned to rain on the east coast ( dumped 3-4 feet in Susquehanna valley) and then came the storm the following weekend that caused the Susquehanna 96 flood, cause it wiped out the snow cover on Saturday. And 2009... the day after Christmas snow was wiped out That was the greatest gloom and doom turned great winter I ever saw, as the winters over crowd was still screaming it a week before snowmageddon started as the GFS ensembles were feeble in mid Jan. And 2013... 70s in NYC a few days before Christmas. Heck Super bowl Sunday got to 50, then 15-25 inches of snow from 2 storms with in 5 days. Now none of that means a hill of beans as far as this pattern but it does mean something about simply using your memory to say, wait a minute maybe there is more to this than meets the eye. After all if it was as it appears given whichever idea you choose to follow and there was no challenge what fun is that. You know what's interesting about at least the cold coming now? Well you guys know I love the weather, but you can also sense I love sports and I am very interested in the political process. Its like the trifecta watching a lot of this for me as far as the comfort one takes that maybe the answer is not what all the experts say. For whatever you or I wish to say, at the very least, the cold did get to our side of the pole, right? Where was that idea 10 days ago, yet alone longer"

[snowwors2]

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

From JB at WeatherBell

"please reference that with my plea to cherish the challenge of this pattern.. I am not talking about snow in your back yard ( actually in this I am) I am talking about the fun in trying to sort out the physical realities of pattern where a lot of things are competing .I am very concerned that the wave on the arctic front will be the real deal to put snow down all the way to the Ohio river and the east coast Jersey north. The emperor of the north is coming and he likes his white carpet laid down before him. Notes and asides. I am hearing alot of grumbling about the warmup day 8/9 in the east ( then the cold comes again, assuming it left, or put it this way, tries to leave) Now anyone remember the Christmas outbreak in 1980? Was drizzling in NYC 3 days later. Same thing in 1983! Or how about the blizzard of 96... Son of Blizzard a week later turned to rain on the east coast ( dumped 3-4 feet in Susquehanna valley) and then came the storm the following weekend that caused the Susquehanna 96 flood, cause it wiped out the snow cover on Saturday. And 2009... the day after Christmas snow was wiped out That was the greatest gloom and doom turned great winter I ever saw, as the winters over crowd was still screaming it a week before snowmageddon started as the GFS ensembles were feeble in mid Jan. And 2013... 70s in NYC a few days before Christmas. Heck Super bowl Sunday got to 50, then 15-25 inches of snow from 2 storms with in 5 days. Now none of that means a hill of beans as far as this pattern but it does mean something about simply using your memory to say, wait a minute maybe there is more to this than meets the eye. After all if it was as it appears given whichever idea you choose to follow and there was no challenge what fun is that. You know what's interesting about at least the cold coming now? Well you guys know I love the weather, but you can also sense I love sports and I am very interested in the political process. Its like the trifecta watching a lot of this for me as far as the comfort one takes that maybe the answer is not what all the experts say. For whatever you or I wish to say, at the very least, the cold did get to our side of the pole, right? Where was that idea 10 days ago, yet alone longer"

Uh huh...

YEP!!!(?)

[Ralph Wiggum]

Cosgrove sticking hard to his guns saying this upcoming cold snap will be brief and transient in an overall AN temp pattern that is locked in thru late January. Guess he doesn't like looking at the EPS or GEFS? They are completely opposite of what he is suggesting with very cold and stormy pattern taking shape.

[ChescoWx]

Latest WeatherBell winter forecast progress update....

The Verdict

I am not ready to change any of the long standing ideas we have based on this run of the Euro Weeklies. We are expecting large scale normal to below temperatures in January and February. So the Euro Weekly run is inconclusive, and run to run consistency is leaving plenty to be desired.

Notes and asides

The latest Weatherbell Pioneer analogs have 1981-82 first, 1983-84 second, 1966-67 third, 2008-09 fourth and 2000-01 fifth, with 2012-13, 1962-63 and 1995-96 in the mix. The SST analog has this for JFM:

This is suggesting a winter similar to the three before the last one, where there is cold involved in January-March. The latest CFSv2 is quite cold for January. My suggestion is that you stick close to our ideas, for at the very least, they have been talking about the current cold. I look for the pattern later this month into January to be back and forth and biased a bit colder than average over the East, with warmth in the Southwest that will have to be looked at to balloon to the northeast.

[ChescoWx]

Per Steve at NJ/PA weather tweet - "as far as Sunday night into Monday, I'm rather concerned the GFS/NAM is off on this 500mb shortwave"

and a funny tweet from DT at Wxrisk "I would not use the 12z OP Friday GFS to wipe the Shxx off of my ass....so many obvious flaws in it - it's absurd"

[ChescoWx]

Tweet from JB " cue the Lost Christmas Eve by TSO. Euro glacier building next 10 days with cold even after means more than normal snow cover"

[ChescoWx]

Per JB this AM

"The severe cold shot that is portrayed on the models is of the genre of 1968,1980 and 1983 Christmas outbreaks, but a week earlier. These major outbreaks drove temps below 0 into the southern New England cities, The 80 and 83 one even into NYC, but ALL THREE HAD IT RAINING IN THE COASTAL NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS! Plainly this is the message behind the GFS and Euro.. The UKMET and Canadian are further south. The parallel is in the middle

For the I-95 show goose its still a case of triumph or tragedy. How can you triumph?

Wave with pre arctic shot dumps some snow, warm advection system dumps snow and ice and the warm sector stays just offshore. Then the front pushes through with another wave but further east than models have. .You go from next to no snow to a bonanza. 200 miles west its a meltdown.

Where do I stand? In the middle. I am suspect of how much cold can hold after the major shot because it fits the 3 that I was talking about, it rained after. Its the less cold UKMET on that shot that is plainly in the camp of snow after it though."

Steve won't like how he finishes because he does not like the pattern but according to Joe B " Its a heck of a pattern...and at the very least, its not last year when nothing was going on.

Of course further north and west, if you wanted snow and cold before Christmas, you are getting your wish."

[ChescoWx]

From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th"

"The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th"

"The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"

And tomorrow he will probably say the complete opposite. I used to like JB but sometimes I think he says what he says to make himself popular or have something to talk about instead of the science of weather and meteorology. JMHO

[Ralph Wiggum]

JB and Cosgrove essentially agree tho LC says all of January a complete washout until the very end of the month.

[ChescoWx]

Everyone's favorite MET For hire - JB on models this PM

"So the point here is I look at that and do not see that as warm. Given other analogs to what has been going on to 1985, I look at that and say look out. The model is likely feeding back on the cold any way. The other problem is that this being an ensemble may not be right about the ridging over Greenland. The operational Euro and the Control are developing a powerful ridge over Greenland in the day 10-15 period This implies the threat of a severe eastern storm and wicked cold anyway during that time and that is something i am starting to look at. I have not been mouthing off much about snow this year cause I have not been impressed in the NE corridor yet. The control is brutal in the 10-15 and sure sees the snow"

[ChescoWx]

JB's latest thoughts on the Euro for January

"The Euro certainly is bullish on the major west to east cold in Days 5-15 and the return of cold for later January and into February. It's the period in between I am having problems with given all that is on the table. Speaking of all that is on the table, the extreme major shot (a la 1985) is certainly there. Of the 46 days, it looks like the model literally has a bullish pattern 50-65% of the time, and we already know some big hitting cold is coming faster than it had a few weeks ago. I am very suspicious of its warming but believe the cold it has is at least that cold and likely even colder when push comes to shove"

[ChescoWx]

The latest and greatest from Mr. Bastardi at WeatherBell after viewing the 12z Euro

"I am not changing my ideas on the east coast threat next week. Its interesting watching tweets and while there is certainly a chance the models are right, there is just as good a chance that the trough in the midwest is deeper and there is more wave right on the east coast Thursday morning. I understand I may be a victim of my own circumstance... the system is ejected out so fast it does not have enough space to deepen. But it looks to me like a shot of energy comes around through Wyoming at hour 108 and by 132 that is at the base of the trough with energy still piling in from the north. What is it going to take... 50 meters lower over Chicago and Higher on the mid atlnatic coast to change what is an arctic wave dumping 1-3 inches of snow in the mid atlantic and going out to having a storm on the coast and snow spread back into Pa the New England? That is chicken feed 5 days away and the most likely correction given the warm water is higher heights on the coast. I. What is interesting is how after all these years, fears, and yes tears, someone doesnt stop and think, how many day 5-6 storms that nailed me were forecasted out to sea 5 days before. In fact if you live around NYC, most storms that are nailing you day 5 wind up as rain. Sure I may be wrong, the models say I am, But a position that took me some work to come up with is not something I will abandon cause a model says so. If its flat tomorrow, so be it. If its back tomorrow, then everyone will be back going wild."

[ChescoWx]

From JB on potential late week - indicates he was wrong on how the upcoming threat might come to pass...

"This will be more phased and further north on the east coast. The trough sharpening like that argues for it and GFS bias does too. However my bias is obvious here , since I have been counting on that system to produce my I-95 snow, ( I can not claim I was right even if it does since its not doing it the phased way Friday I thought it would) I AM LOOKING FOR THE HOMERGUN PITCH. but the model looks strange to me and if we are going to get that kind of beast that far back off the west coast, this should be much stronger near the east coast

Just a thought for now... I want to handle system one. Interesting, remember before last years blizzard, there was a minor system a few days before that shut down DC on a Wednesday night ( half inch or so) Wont take much of a correction on the GFS to have one a couple of days before, then the bigger one later

So again, I am biased here since I EXPECT this pattern to produce the big hitter on the east coast in the coming 7 days, But I do have arguments not based on my preconceived notions with where the trough is off the west coast ( sudden slowing and sharpening) and the usual GFS problems which such things near the east coast

Fun pattern though."

[snowwors2]

Note to Hurricane S if you're lurking:

less temperature analysis and more of your 10 day analysis/forecast

(you rarely show it anymore)!