famartin Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The old thread was over 1,000 replies... So... what's JB think for this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 JB says cold and snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Can't find it readily, but I think he was going 0 to plus 1 on temps around here, biased warmer late in the summer. Precip also close to normal, again biased wetter later on due to tropical influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 So... what's JB think for this summer? The greatest threat for a landfalling hurricane along the U.S. coastline will be between Eastport, ME & Brownsville, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The greatest threat for a landfalling hurricane along the U.S. coastline will be between Eastport, ME & Brownsville, TX He's going with the in-close development with east coast threats with very little coming out of the deep tropics with cooler than normal water and dry air forecasted. I think he said 9 total storms, 2-3 majors and 70-90 ACE. I see LC with similar numbers, but more focus in the gulf than east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I know you all have been wondering about this. This is regarding your forecasts from the "local on the 8's" via The Weather Channel and Comcast as your cable provider (not sure if other providers are doing this as well). Just for kicks, I sent in a question why the location for my "local on the 8's" is not even in the same county. It all comes down to Comcast consolidating equipment areas. At least I got a response from The Weather Channel today, which stated:"Comcast Cable is consolidating areas within a number of television markets across the country. When a cable company consolidates equipment, they will combine two (2) or more units into one and serve a larger geographical area. We, at The Weather Channel, when notified about the consolidation, will revise the area served data to suit all viewers. The cable company typically picks the forecast point name; in this case it is Audubon, New Jersey.We are in a partnership with Comcast and are working together to provide the most critical weather data and local forecasts, as well as severe weather alerts for your area. We would encourage you to contact your local Comcast office and provide them with your feedback on this change as we continue to work with them to bring you your local weather forecasts for Mount Holly, Moorestown and Burlington County, New Jersey". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 5, 2014 Share Posted September 5, 2014 JB already advertising non-winters to come over the next few years (must be fighting his cold bias)......but....far from that is what he and the team at Weather Bell are seeing for this year. Top Analogs at this point are: 1) 2009-10 2/ 1976-77 3) 2002-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Just imagine a hybrid of those three winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 From Larry Cosgrove at Weatheramerica - another potential nor'easter for Halloween with maybe some high ground snows... "Despite the tendency to have mild weather over much of the U.S. in the short range forecast, the presence of a modest blocking signal over Alaska will have downstream impacts by next weekend. Shortwave energy in central Canada will dig into Appalachia, possibly forming a closed (and cold) 500MB low by November 1. While the operational GFS and GGEM schemes have tended to view this feature as a progressive cold intrusion (bordering on cA character), the ECMWF panels have advertised the formation of a significant surface storm near Cape Hatteras. Note the Rex signature over Quebec and Labrador after Saturday. If this minor block is for real (and I think that is indeed the case), we may see another Nor'easter with two or three days of wind and rain from Virginia northward to Nova Scotia in the November 1 - 4 time frame. And yes, higher elevations on the western edge of the precipitation shield (do you hear me Interstate 79 and 81 corridors....) could see the first accumulating snow of the season." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 JB has the upper low going from Toledo to Elkins to Richmond VA with snow from the mountain of NC up to Maine with snow possibly getting as far south and near the coast as North Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: Very warm water off east coast supplies the energy for what could be a severe noreaster tracking from near Va Capes to Cape Cod on weekend Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 JB has the upper low going from Toledo to Elkins to Richmond VA with snow from the mountain of NC up to Maine with snow possibly getting as far south and near the coast as North Jersey And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 JB riding the JMA today on twit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support. He did a great job with nailing this storm way in advance and I do like his admitting his bias (which we all know of holding on too long). Like him or not he is good with overall patterns....IMHO October 31 06:51 PM It is likely you will not live through a period like this again. No, not the individual storms, but the amount of variables being thrown at you at once, exposing the helplessness of longer range models. Man, being a smart creature will adjust and next time we see a major climatic shift, the model should be ready. That being said, once they caught on to this system now, they have done good. Some of the old biases did not occur, and my bias of hanging on too long did, so its machine over man when it comes to the end game here. Since no one was looking a week ago, the fact that this was picked out then likely does not matter to most. Going forward, I think since Feb 2013 there has been a major model bias to warm overall in the longer range. Many lah de dah, its going to be warm long range forecasts have been blown out of the water. Its that simple. Occasionally Sept 2013, and Oct 2014 have shown up, but by and large. 10-15 days the major models that the markets have been glued too have been too warm in the month ahead and the season ahead. But if this winter turns out to be even nastier than we have, it wasnt that there were not hints Look at this snowcover.. close to the all time record for the last day of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 9, 2014 Share Posted November 9, 2014 From Larry Cosgrove at WeatherAmerica and his weekly newsletter "As I reviewed weather forecast charts over the past few days, my memory was jogged back to a time when incessant cold intrusions, massive winter storms, and extensive blocking signatures were the rule and not the exception. I am talking about the late 1970s, a magical time in my life when forecasting the weather was far more difficult than what is the case today. However, the predictions were more exciting not just because of difficulty (computer modeling was in its infancy, with only the Barotropic, LFM, and AVN series to choose from), but also because if you liked the challenges and the eventual extreme outcome, you got to view history in the making. All of this nostalgia has a point, you see. It has been a long while since I saw nearly all of the numerical models set up a triple or quadruple blocking signature with an active southern branch jet stream. Even more bizarre is the notion is that this configuration could last for two weeks or more! You see, if you review even the extreme cold seasons of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the radical cAk plunges were quite progressive. Colder monthly averages were achieved by multiple delivery of colder values, not by a routine day-after-day cold spells. This "long lived chill" is the scenario we may be facing for much of the rest of November, IF the equations verify! There seems to be some agreement also on the idea of yet another storm taking shape in southern Texas around November 20. The most probable track for this system is probably a "Miller A" type along the Gulf Coast and then running up along the Eastern Seaboard. If we do maintain a mild West vs. cold Central and East alignment, the snowpack will drop as far south as the Ozark Plateau, Tennessee Valley, and possibly just to the right of the Appalachian Mountains (NC to ME). Remember that the more snow we get farther south only favors a longer stay of cold air and more of a "duration winter". I am still sticking with the idea that after a volatile late November and December (leaning cold but still capable of some warmer "burps" east of the High Plains), that we settle into a rather painful stormy and bitterly cold period from January through much of March. So far the analog comparisons have been correct with respect to the coldest values this month being mainly between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia. Speaking of analogs, I am toying with the idea of adding 1976-77 and 1957-1958 to the roster of comparative winters. The ferocious 1976 set-up had help from a typhoon injection (just like Nuri), while the fall of 1957 saw a very warm SST anomaly along the entire eastern shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. The former period had a lasting and strong national warm-up starting in mid-February, while the latter was notorous for its balmy December followed by a brutal JFM time frame. The 500MB and temperature deviation charts for the DJFM realm are included above, using the additional analogs. "Mild West, Cold, Stormy Central And East" may be ringing in your brain this winter. Along with high energy and grocery bills, too." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted November 10, 2014 Share Posted November 10, 2014 Well... Hell yeh!!!!! ....thanks Larry for a great read today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-18th-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Outlook-282407431.html Glenn going huge for this winter. I don't think I've ever seen a vender forecast go that big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-18th-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Outlook-282407431.html Glenn going huge for this winter. I don't think I've ever seen a vender forecast go that big... Yep. Going with the coldest winter in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-18th-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Outlook-282407431.html Glenn going huge for this winter. I don't think I've ever seen a vender forecast go that big... Wow, calling for two 12"+ storms sure is gutsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 2015 is like the all star winter with all the big names in the lineup for a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 2015 is like the all star winter with all the big names in the lineup for a great winter. Just when you think it is a lock - guess what they all go down the sh#$ter. Long range Euro and GFS look warm or at least normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Just when you think it is a lock - guess what they all go down the sh#$ter. Long range Euro and GFS look warm or at least normal. It's November. Come mid December when we still haven't been that cold or gotten a ton of snow yet. ( this winter has a decent chance to start slow because of the Nino ) all the weenies will be jumping off the Philly bridges and miss all the fun in jan and feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Impressive outlook from Glenn. If I remember correctly, he did pretty good last year with 25-35" which was a lot more than what most were saying then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hurricane laying it down. His scorecard reads really well in the past, so this bodes well for the our chances of cashing in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Hurricane laying it down. His scorecard reads really well in the past, so this bodes well for the our chances of cashing in this winter. ummmm..lets just imagine you didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Might be biased.... Maybe it's the bowtie.... Regardless, I personally think he's best around. Call me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Glenn is top notch, he's the only regional on air met who nailed Boxing Day 2010 while everyone else (including the NYC market) was calling for cloudy skies and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 He also reads and posts in the philly forum once in a while during the major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Might be biased.... Maybe it's the bowtie.... Regardless, I personally think he's best around. Call me crazy. You're not. He is the best around Philly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Cecily steps to the plate tonight @ 11:00 which is probably Accuwx driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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