RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 First day on the job the new GFS gives a SECS digital snowstorm to the area day 9. Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 yeah new gfs loves winter for us. we shall see since there are about 3 dozen more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 First day on the job the new GFS gives a SECS digital snowstorm to the area day 9. Funny The New GFS is not "New".... It just shows you what would have happened without all the "Heat Island Effects" "Warming Oceans" Etc. Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 8-10 day means are predicting a solid +PNA . Hope the blocking in the Atlantic cooperates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Fantasy land storm OTS this 18z run. Nice 1031 H in SE Canada this run in the same position 12z had a clipper lp placed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens). Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather? It's KU time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens). Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather? It's KU time! .....Shades of Feb 1983 come early...really thinking we see one or two bud storms 12-18" types to get us at normal for the year that essentially was also winter of 1982-83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 ..... Shades of Feb 1983 come early...really thinking we see one or two bud storms 12-18" types to get us at normal for the year that essentially was also winter of 1982-83 I certainly hope you guys are right. The pattern changes seem to be pretty imminent, but we still need well timed energy to cash in. DT had a pretty good write up weighing in on the pattern change in what it could mean. http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Pattern setting up in about 8-14 days is just sick! Huge -epo, +pna, -ao, -nao (based off of eps and support from GFS ens). Might we finally be entering a period of stormy and cold weather? It's KU time! Right on schedule, the GFS shows a very favorable storm signal in D8-9 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 0z ECM has a mega cutter nuke day 9, GFS out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 0z ECM has a mega cutter nuke day 9, GFS out to sea Euro has not been the best model as of late. GFS OTS....CMC is a hit. I like the setup at this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Another time machine digital snowstorm - 12z ECM day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Another time machine digital snowstorm - 12z ECM day 9-10 ECM has gone from a super cutter to a coastal in 24 hrs. Trending towards the GFS and wouldn't be surprised to see it go OTS. Euro has been horrible in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 ECM has gone from a super cutter to a coastal in 24 hrs. Trending towards the GFS and wouldn't be surprised to see it go OTS. Euro has been horrible in the long range. We can learn nothing from the ECM beyond 96hrs this winter, unless its consistently shows a cutter since that always seems to be the most stable pattern from suffering major variations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Clipper day 5-6 trending south. Just a little more and we might get something from it. Very active southern jet in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I would still advise caution for both the clipper and the storm following it. You can see two outcomes, one we do see snow from both. More likely at this time the clipper brings WAA north as we see rain and the next storm goes OTS. According to what I've seen we lost some of the western spread with the ECMWF ensembles, not necessarily a bad thing as the usual trend is NW with time. OP GFS pattern in the 7-15 day period was for -PNA, +++AO and +NAO, not good. GEFS/ ECMWF ensembles were better through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Major shift west and cave of the GFS to other models for the frontal wave. Implications of this are to hold following clipper south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Just an ugly run on the 12z GFS. Pretty much all threats gone just like that within one run. Let's see what the rest of the 12z suite has to say. Had a feeling this would be just another typical Day 7/8 storm threat that we just cannont get to within short range tracking. Even HM was mentioning shades of Feb 2003 in the Mid Atlantic forum yesterday about the late week storm. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 GGEM still has the storm but it misses to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am close to cancelling winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I am close to cancelling winter There is a reason all the great fantasy storms are staying 7-10 days away, this winter is a disjointed bad pattern mess with no blocking support. Every now and then we get a tease run showing good times ahead. -NAO is failing us this month and the -AO spike is transient and goes back positive later in the month. Worse case scenario of a January almost as cold as last year but little snow is gaining momentum. We need to depend on clippers for our snow and that is not a good situation. Best hope continues to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 There is a reason all the great fantasy storms are staying 7-10 days away, this winter is a disjointed bad pattern mess with no blocking support. Every now and then we get a tease run showing good times ahead. -NAO is failing us this month and the -AO spike is transient and goes back positive later in the month. Worse case scenario of a January almost as cold as last year but little snow is gaining momentum. We need to depend on clippers for our snow and that is not a good situation. Best hope continues to be a one hit wonder like 1983 or 2006 You pretty much nailed it right on the point man. It's just always 7-10 days away. It's like a mirage in the desert. As you get closer to it, it just starts disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 12Z euro shows a low tracking from off the Georgia coast at 192hr to the benchmark at 216. Anyone got any better details. I realize it is unlikely to verify but still curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 the only reason you see good storms in the long range is becuase they show some time of -ao and or -noa. but as we get close none of that blocking is true. going to be a long and painful winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 the only reason you see good storms in the long range is becuase they show some time of -ao and or -noa. but as we get close none of that blocking is true. going to be a long and painful winter I'm liking the trends lately as far as having a pattern conducive for snow. No way of knowing if it will lead to actual snow, or how much, but things are looking better over the next 2 weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS has dips in the NAO and AO through weekend. Bears watching.Even if this year su#ks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS has dips in the NAO and AO through weekend. Bears watching.Even if this year su#ks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Maybe you can punt but until after Feb 20 - I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 GFS has dips in the NAO and AO through weekend. Bears watching.Even if this year su#ks. I was thinking more along the lines of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This weekend is sneaking up as more favorable getting the low up the coast. 12z models were closer. If it ejects to fast across south it goes out to sea, to slow and. It comes up coast and then get shoved east. Monday Tuesday chance next week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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