Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GGEM is in....shows a prolonged event(s): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It's sad when we can only look to a 10 day prog clipper in a sea of cutters. Reminds me of a typical crappy 1990's winter. Pretty amazing stuff with GFS sniffing this clipper out 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GGEM is in....shows a prolonged event(s): What weird evolution 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty amazing stuff with GFS sniffing this clipper out 10 days ago. I've never studied the phenomenon myself but many say the GFS is better with northern stream systems than southern ones, so that kinda makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I've never studied the phenomenon myself but many say the GFS is better with northern stream systems than southern ones, so that kinda makes sense. Most definitely. Boxing Day, 12z run dec 24th, GFS picked up on the stronger northern vort, pretty much every Secs MECS event last year with the one exception feb 13th which was southern stream system the euro was all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Typical model biases showing up again for next week. 00z ec amped up now after first wave of ice/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Typical model biases showing up again for next week. 00z ec amped up now after first wave of ice/rain. yep hanging back energy in the southwest and then phasing it in with the norther stream vort. Classic Euro bias! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Typical model biases showing up again for next week. 00z ec amped up now after first wave of ice/rain. Every event is pretty much thread the needle, the overrunning event I'm inclined to believe is going to be a miss right now, the Euro has had problems being too sluggish on highs out of Canada this winter, so that high it thinks will be over the Lakes allowing the overrunning to reach up to NY and be mostly rain is probably not right. It'll probably over NY and squash that overrunning. The next event is maybe the best chance of the winter, its all over the ensembles for a few days. Eventually one event is going to hit I think but it may take til 1/25 or so til it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z para wants a coastal snow storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z para wants a coastal snow storm next weekBoth GFS models are spitting out a sizeable storm it appears. Old gfs has 2 events....first looks icy. Fun times ahead for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Both GFS models are spitting out a sizeable storm it appears. Old gfs has 2 events....first looks icy. Fun times ahead for all! Hope it works out but the MJO is headed into the circle of death according to the dynamic models that could change. Other teleconnections are iffy. Looks like a thread the needle situation as someone mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Hope it works out but the MJO is headed into the circle of death according to the dynamic models that could change. Other teleconnections are iffy. Looks like a thread the needle situation as someone mentioned.MJO doesn't seem to be driving the bus lately -- i.e. we're in a warm phase now that's not working out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Both the 12Z Euro and the GFS show some type of coastal at 192 hours, where have I seen that before? We'll see if this has any legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Both the 12Z Euro and the GFS show some type of coastal at 192 hours, where have I seen that before? We'll see if this has any legs.What about the overunning system Monday? Shouldnt we focus on one at a time? The Monday system has the best potential of the young season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What about the overunning system Monday? Shouldnt we focus on one at a time? The Monday system has the best potential of the young season so far. The 18z GFS has a ip/zr storm Mon-Tue followed by an MECS-level snowstorm on Thurs with the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 MJO doesn't seem to be driving the bus lately -- i.e. we're in a warm phase now that's not working out very well. MJO forecasts have been all over the place lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Every event is pretty much thread the needle, the overrunning event I'm inclined to believe is going to be a miss right now, the Euro has had problems being too sluggish on highs out of Canada this winter, so that high it thinks will be over the Lakes allowing the overrunning to reach up to NY and be mostly rain is probably not right. It'll probably over NY and squash that overrunning. The next event is maybe the best chance of the winter, its all over the ensembles for a few days. Eventually one event is going to hit I think but it may take til 1/25 or so til it happens. The 12z ECMWF just looks odd to much giveway to WAA and cutting low tracks to the north. I think we have good potential for both events at this point, icing signal is strong with the first event. We did good getting the first light snow this week with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 12z ECMWF just looks odd to much giveway to WAA and cutting low tracks to the north. I think we have good potential for both events at this point, icing signal is strong with the first event. We did good getting the first light snow this week with the clipper.Agree with this ingredients are there for icing:1. Extremely cold grounds here and incoming. 2. Ocean water temps taking a dive due to cold air advect 3. Big snow pack cold in southeastern Canada gives credence to big strong cold high to send down cold on northeast winds all steps 1 to 3 with cold grounds and or snow pack lead to CAD cold air daming at surface. 4. Weak low or overrun event warm aloft but not at surface. 5. STJ aid in sending warming over slow retreating cold air or cold air locked in due to CAD. 6. How 1 through 5 line up will tell us the severity and duration of snows sleet and potentially dangerous ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro has a nice coastal passing by on Thursday (heaviest precip 12Z-18Z), but its mix or rain in the cities with the 850 0C line just NW of I-95. Interior should do good on this run, but precip tapers fairly quickly away from the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ray what precip type is euro showing for NW of I95 on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ray what precip type is euro showing for NW of I95 on Tuesday? If you get far enough away its snow For your area, it looks like mix/rain changing to snow. We start out with a mediocre airmass and cold air wraps in as the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 If you get far enough away its snow For your area, it looks like mix/rain changing to snow. We start out with a mediocre airmass and cold air wraps in as the storm passes. Tue-Thur has a January 1994 flavor this run but not as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 0Z PGFS has the 1/15 storm (more like overrunning) while the slp is off the SE coast....the regular GFS sends it off the SE coast with no overunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS actually showing a strong signal for a very slow moving system spinning out on the Western Atlantic late next week. It's really not all that far off from being something nice....PGFS as well. In any event, it's great to know we have at least 3 threats in the next 7 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 How humorous now the PGFS is back on for Monday, especially N&W burbs. Medium range model mayhem continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 How humorous now the PGFS is back on for Monday, especially N&W burbs. Medium range model mayhem continues. AS HM had said it would be in PhillyWX forums!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 CPC has reduced the chance of El Nino to approximately 55%, noting SST anomalies decrease overall during December. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z PGFS just misses a SECS with event #2 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 R Wiggum Tracking Guide for the next system Mon the 19th sans GFS -Para op runs dm..... the cherry picker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sun - Mon is going to be another nails on the chalkboard painful near miss storm with the north and south jetstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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