RedSky Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 After tomorrow a nice cold winter like ECM run, except for the day 7-8 Pittsburgh cutter of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 8-10 day 500mb mean doesn't look that cold to me. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 8-10 day 500mb mean doesn't look that cold to me. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Its near normal....the epo ridge that just cant produce. Never seen anything like it. The SE Ridge just wont budge. That feature plus the pac firehose are gonna be the themes of this winter. If this epo ridge doesnt produce before it breaks down, this winter is going to be a dud. I know folks dont want to hear it but someone has to bear the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Just to give some perspective - last year temps in Northern Canada were approaching 50 below in the night at this time. This year they are struggling to get to 35 below. Simple math - 15 degree difference in any dip in the northern jet that would bring in a cold shot. One worry is an overrunning event that would bring heavy icing and sleet. Happy holidays to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2014 Author Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little fun to see how likely the pattern is to change... first list is all winters where PHL failed to reach 1 inch by the end of December for the seasonal total. Second list is same subset with winters where ABE failed to reach 4 inches removed (in other words, winters where PHL proper started out screwed while the NW burbs weren't). Not a lot of value here, just an idea of how likely the pattern is to make a change to a snowier one based on past precedent. Season PHL by 12/31 PHL Season1885-1886 0.1 20.4 1888-1889 0.5 6.2 1889-1890 T 7.4 1891-1892 T 19.9 1895-1896 0.5 14.8 1899-1900 0.5 20.6 1906-1907 0.3 38.6 1913-1914 T 34.2 1918-1919 T 4.5 1920-1921 0.8 13.7 1924-1925 0.2 16.5 1934-1935 T 28.9 1936-1937 0.4 13.8 1937-1938 T 8.5 1941-1942 0 9.8 1943-1944 0 15.7 1946-1947 T 23.7 1949-1950 T 2.0 1954-1955 T 12.1 1956-1957 0.2 7.9 1958-1959 0.3 5.1 1965-1966 T 27.4 1971-1972 0.1 12.2 1972-1973 T T 1974-1975 0.8 13.6 1977-1978 0.4 54.9 1983-1984 0.8 21.6 1984-1985 0.2 16.5 1986-1987 0.4 25.7 1988-1989 0.4 11.2 1991-1992 T 4.7 1992-1993 T 24.3 1993-1994 0.9 23.1 1994-1995 T 9.8 1996-1997 T 12.9 1997-1998 0.2 0.8 1999-2000 T 21.0 2001-2002 0 4.0 2004-2005 0.4 30.4 2006-2007 T 13.4 2011-2012 0.3 4.0 2012-2013 0.4 8.3 Season PHL by 12/31 ABE by 12/31 PHL Season ABE Season1936-1937 0.4 4.5 13.8 23.11958-1959 0.3 5.3 5.1 23.51971-1972 0.1 7.5 12.2 28.61972-1973 T 4.3 T 7.41977-1978 0.4 6.4 54.9 55.61983-1984 0.8 5.0 21.6 34.31984-1985 0.2 5.7 16.5 24.22011-2012 0.3 6.8 4.0 12.02012-2013 0.4 7.6 8.3 21.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Day 7 time machine snowstorm looks great again on the xbox GFS. I should start keeping track of para and ecm snows day 7 it could be a 200" fantasy winter like Ji's digital snow thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A little fun to see how likely the pattern is to change... first list is all winters where PHL failed to reach 1 inch by the end of December for the seasonal total. Second list is same subset with winters where ABE failed to reach 4 inches removed (in other words, winters where PHL proper started out screwed while the NW burbs weren't). Not a lot of value here, just an idea of how likely the pattern is to make a change to a snowier one based on past precedent. Season PHL by 12/31 PHL Season1885-1886 0.1 20.4 1888-1889 0.5 6.2 1889-1890 T 7.4 1891-1892 T 19.9 1895-1896 0.5 14.8 1899-1900 0.5 20.6 1906-1907 0.3 38.6 1913-1914 T 34.2 1918-1919 T 4.5 1920-1921 0.8 13.7 1924-1925 0.2 16.5 1934-1935 T 28.9 1936-1937 0.4 13.8 1937-1938 T 8.5 1941-1942 0 9.8 1943-1944 0 15.7 1946-1947 T 23.7 1949-1950 T 2.0 1954-1955 T 12.1 1956-1957 0.2 7.9 1958-1959 0.3 5.1 1965-1966 T 27.4 1971-1972 0.1 12.2 1972-1973 T T 1974-1975 0.8 13.6 1977-1978 0.4 54.9 1983-1984 0.8 21.6 1984-1985 0.2 16.5 1986-1987 0.4 25.7 1988-1989 0.4 11.2 1991-1992 T 4.7 1992-1993 T 24.3 1993-1994 0.9 23.1 1994-1995 T 9.8 1996-1997 T 12.9 1997-1998 0.2 0.8 1999-2000 T 21.0 2001-2002 0 4.0 2004-2005 0.4 30.4 2006-2007 T 13.4 2011-2012 0.3 4.0 2012-2013 0.4 8.3 Season PHL by 12/31 ABE by 12/31 PHL Season ABE Season1936-1937 0.4 4.5 13.8 23.11958-1959 0.3 5.3 5.1 23.51971-1972 0.1 7.5 12.2 28.61972-1973 T 4.3 T 7.41977-1978 0.4 6.4 54.9 55.61983-1984 0.8 5.0 21.6 34.31984-1985 0.2 5.7 16.5 24.22011-2012 0.3 6.8 4.0 12.02012-2013 0.4 7.6 8.3 21.4 Below are the years I think our winter of 2014-2015 will mirror as reported at Philadelphia International Airport at this point today. The main reason I selected these years was for the occurrence of snowfall to be near normal which is where I think we may be headed. Now in these years all except the nickle and dime year 1993-1994 we had one big storm that dropped most of the snow; most notably Feb. 1983 which was a snow lovers dream. I am very much still hoping for an above normal year but I will temper my expectations for now. Another thing about the years I have selected like many years around here most if not all of our snow fell in Later January to Mid March which is most common. 1885-1886 0.1 20.4 >>>>Feb 3-4th biggest storm that year 9.3" temps were cold with the exception of the beginning of the year. 1891-1892 T 19.9 >>>>> Jan 15th biggest storm that year 5.0" temps were up and down noteworthy 7.5" during 3 days 3/16-3/18 1899-1900 0.5 20.6>>>>> Feb. 16-17 11.3" biggest storm that year 3/15 5.2" a warm year overall 1946-1947 T 23.7 >>>>>> Feb. 20 10.6" biggest storm that year 1983-1984 0.8 21.6 >>>>>> Feb. 11-12 21.3" biggest storm that year two days later at night 3 for a low (I remember Jim Obien and this One) 1993-1994 0.9 23.1>>>>>>> Nickel and Dime with snow events 5.6" larges event 1999-2000 T 21.0 >>>>>>>> Jan. 25 8.5" biggest storm that year temps up and down. Thanks Ray for posting this. It will be interesting to see where we will ultimately head to be truly honest I am standing at the ledge of 50/50 for an above average snowfall year. We have certainly come to a cross roads this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't think it's false hope to put slightly more stock in this long range threat considering we have actual genuine cold high pressure galore to the north and the pattern has shifted. My concern is a sheared out wave that never organizes and not a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I don't think it's false hope to put slightly more stock in this long range threat considering we have actual genuine cold high pressure galore to the north and the pattern has shifted. My concern is a sheared out wave that never organizes and not a cutter. Wes in the MA forum says this wont shear out or be suppressed due to the AO/NAO phase. I respect his opinion but I disagree since there is a PV sitting to our North which shouldn't allow this to cut or come too far North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 12z euro a weak disorganized mess suppressed south GEM a cutter OP GFS cutter Para = perfect All options on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks Ray for the list... I've let go of expectations for above normal, although you never know. Normal at PHL (about 22") would probably translate into 30" to 40" additional north and west, and that would be just fine imo, given where we are so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Perhaps the ruler cam will turn things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Model jumble continues 0z Para goes to Buffalo 0z oldie GFS trended colder with some front end snow to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 PGFS caves to GFS for this weekend system. How poetic (or is that.....pathetic?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 PGFS caves to GFS for this weekend system. How poetic (or is that.....pathetic?). We can't buy a positive trend. What I have noticed following this next storm is quicker solutions are most likely to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Perhaps the ruler cam will turn things around. Perhaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 There's a clipper showing up on both GFS's around Tuesday - Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Gem cutting even further west, not getting much digital snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's sad when we can only look to a 10 day prog clipper in a sea of cutters. Reminds me of a typical crappy 1990's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 18z GFS develops a decent coastal out of a clipper system 1/7... It's fantasy at this range I know but I'm desperate here! Anyone see any potential for snow after the 1/4 cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 18z GFS develops a decent coastal out of a clipper system 1/7... It's fantasy at this range I know but I'm desperate here! Anyone see any potential for snow after the 1/4 cutter? +NAO that storm is outta here..... now if there were blocking with a -NAO maybe that storm slows down and develops quick enough to give us a decent shot of snow off the Atlantic with decent cold available..... We really have to have this pattern to slow down and lock the cold air in off a +PNA, -AO and sustained -NAO to get the snowstorm we are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The 18z GFS develops a decent coastal out of a clipper system 1/7... It's fantasy at this range I know but I'm desperate here! Anyone see any potential for snow after the 1/4 cutter? Maybe next year... Haha as in Feb 2015, otherwise it's off until Dec 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What do the pros on here think about a potential event for next weekend? The GFS seems to want to set up a decent moderate event for next weekend and its been trending colder. The GFS has been doing pretty well in this pattern so maybe, possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What do the pros on here think about a potential event for next weekend? The GFS seems to want to set up a decent moderate event for next weekend and its been trending colder. The GFS has been doing pretty well in this pattern so maybe, possibly? Its mildly intresting. I think cold enough air could hang on a little longer than the models have it. Perhaps a miller B with mix to rain. Similar to what we just saw would be a concern, the slower the mid level energy is to eject out of the southwest the better chance for a warmup before this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12Z Euro is showing that the Pacific firehose returns in the 8-10 mean. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Stalled boundary just to our south day 6-8 on the euro has potential to deliver overrunning wintry precipitation. GFS further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 euro has snow from 156hr to 240hr next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 euro has snow from 156hr to 240hr next week This winter is back ON, fun *potential* all over it next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 This winter is back ON, fun *potential* all over it next weekLove it!! Bring it on clearly see the Cold Air taking up residence in the Midwest and East and more importantly in Southeastern Canada setting up the likely hood of a large cold high pressure system..... come STJ Come Now!! Just hope the cold can lock in at all levels otherwise ice storm fears and concerns for some next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 euro has snow from 156hr to 240hr next week It has a rather icy look as is. the prospects do look better compared to a couple of days ago. GFS will need some time to fully come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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