Harbourton Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Latest 12Z 500mb plots show that the GFS is starting to cave to the Euro about a potential-NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12/29-1/5....two systems to develop and affect the area with wintry precip during this period. One system could be a coastal. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I want to believe in the day 6 chance but the trend this month has been your mortal enemy. We find out tomorrow if it can make it into medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Like last year, I'm viewing everything beyond 72hrs as fantasy. Nothing will be a lock outside of 72 hours. Remember the big 959 cleavland steamer the super bomb redo the models were depicting three days ago. Now it's just a sheared out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I've seen 1965-66 and 1978-79 mentioned recently as possible analogs for this winter. All of the teleconnections don't match up, but looking at those years is helping me to adjust my expectations for this winter. For starters, both of those winters featured a "meh" December and a warm and wet Christmas eve or Christmas day. January 1979 had a 10 day period of cold and snow early to mid-month. January 1966 did not. Most of 1978-79's snow at PHL fell during the 1st 3 weeks of February, capped off by the President's Day snowstorm (Feb. 19th). Most of 1965-66's snow at PHL fell in the last week of January and 1st week of February. Both winters wound up with above average snowfall at PHL. I'm not forecasting or predicting, the weather has this thing about making me feel silly when I do. But in adjusting my expectations (and hopes) for snow this winter, I look at those two winters as possible analogs for how this winter could play out. And at this point a good wintery spell of 2 to 3 weeks later in January and into February still seems doable, and anything in early January would be a bonus (in my view). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I want to believe in the day 6 chance but the trend this month has been your mortal enemy. We find out tomorrow if it can make it into medium range. 12z doctor says no to snow on the 29th with a Pittsburgh cutter. That didn't take long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z doctor says no to snow on the 29th with a Pittsburgh cutter. That didn't take longI believe that is the sacrificial lamb for the system around the 3rd-4th of January. Im probably misreading guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 500mb plots for 8-10 day period are much improved with a deep eastern trough. If we could just get some blocking on the Atlantic side we'd be in business. Any way a colder outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 0z ECM takes us back in the time machine by delaying the next event to day 6 and magically creating a great winter storm event for I95 N&W Hey the Canadian is on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The foreigners minus the Ukie look great tonight in fantasy land with CMC showing 15-20 mm snow for Philly as well as most of NJ even to the central coast. Euro (depending on your snowmap has 6" philly and up along I95 until central jersey and east to about 10 miles inland away from the coast with nyc inside 6" as well. North and west score big with 10" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Wiggum Storm is very much alive and well! 2 events coming between 12/30-1/5. Sacrificial lamb storm moves into 50/50. Front gets hung up down thru the GOM. SLP forms on stalled front in GOM and SE Ridge forces LP to move ENE back into 50/50. Pattern essentially repeats for a second storm later in that range. Jury is still out if we get a third system (Archambeault Event) just after those dates I am honing in on. More details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Good news - I'll be in Colorado from 12/28 to 1/4 so feet and feet of snow are likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The Euro shows about 9" of snow for both KMQS and KPTW by next Wednesday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I'm not believing/following squat till we're a day or so away. Enjoy the holidays w/o spending time getting screwed system after system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 PGFS has not a flake in the east Monday Puts the energy into second system NYD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 We leap back into a chronic hysterisis time loop and get a great snowstorm out at day 8 on the PGFS(interior, rain to snow further east). This is a carrot on a stick winter. Can't wait to see what hijinks Dr No will be up to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 ECM completely different. Models running like random number generators beyond 72 hours, Absolute was right. But there is a decent chance of a winter event sometime between days 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM THE 18Z XBOX GFS! SECS Monday and SECS/MECS day after New Years *** No returns though for these gifts*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM nice hit it looks like... https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg anxiously awaiting EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM nice hit it looks like... https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg anxiously awaiting EURO Model watching mid long range is hopeless. 0z euro its gone, never seen anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 NAM looks very ominous at 84 FWIW & the para GFS still gives a decent snow at 108-120 hrs, blows the low up but a tad late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 For what it's worth it's the first time a threat has made it inside 120 hours on the PGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM still has a solid snowstorm for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 GGEM aint budging one bit. Definitely has my attention now cause the GFS looks pretty much the same just with no cold air. So I think it's all a matter of if that cold air gets in here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Does this remind anyone one else of the Superbowl storm last winter? That quick hitting storm everyone was nervous about the cold air actually getting down in time. Feel like it could be like that again. The swath the GGEM shows is pretty much identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Does this remind anyone one else of the Superbowl storm last winter? That quick hitting storm everyone was nervous about the cold air actually getting down in time. Feel like it could be like that again. The swath the GGEM shows is pretty much identical. Over 5" of snow imby, with the temp. at 33F most of the time. A nice snow. Hopefully the cold air comes in for this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Atari GFS not even a surface reflection for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Euro and GFS look in agreement for a giant SE ridge. Golf will definitely continue into January. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Cold week on the euro with a brief warmup and cutter. An 80's winter could be unfolding ugh. My strawberries are putting out new growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Cold week on the euro with a brief warmup and cutter. An 80's winter could be unfolding ugh. My strawberries are putting out new growth. LOL - I'd take a 1980's winter in a second over this mess to date, really doesn't resemble an 80's winter - it's along the lines of one of those wretched 1990's winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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