Animal Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 starting a thread on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 I willl be down in Philly area as of Tuesday night. Last Thanksgiving storm I recall with snow around the late 80's. Not sure on the year, but we got around 4 inches down around rt 926 & rt 100 area the chadds ford, west chester area where I lived as a youngster. Hoping the magic works this time. Best Hope so too since I'm not too far from there. The year was 1989, and it was a dry powdery snow. That winter was good until Christmas, then not so much after that. Seeing this year differently, especially since the long advertised warmup should come the following week. Then hopefully a reset to follow. Have a safe trip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 23, 2014 Share Posted November 23, 2014 Hope so too since I'm not too far from there. The year was 1989, and it was a dry powdery snow. That winter was good until Christmas, then not so much after that. Seeing this year differently, especially since the long advertised warmup should come the following week. Then hopefully a reset to follow. Have a safe trip! I remember it well. Had to drive down route 70 to Medford from the shore area. Had to shovel the boat off too, stripe bass were still running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Long range Euro says if you like today your going to love next week. More open windows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Long range Euro says if you like today your going to love next week. More open windows... Yep, not an ounce of blocking. Enjoy tracking this storm because after this we may be headed back into hibernation until mid dec at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Yep, not an ounce of blocking. Enjoy tracking this storm because after this we may be headed back into hibernation until mid dec at least Torch week cancelled Now two wintry mix type situations possible next week on Tuesday and Friday, strongest threat northern zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Torch week cancelled Yeah, after today it will end up being a rather cool week (relative to average for December 2 through 7) with two potential wintry mix events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Seems like the probability of a strong El Nino this year is receding. Forecasters have lowered the probability of El Nino developing to 58%, from 65%, this winter. If El Niño emerges this year, it is likely to be weak. Other long range factors are at odds as the NAO and AO are predicted to go positive - in contrast the PNA is predicted to go positive. MJO while approaching phase 7and 8 mid December have amplitude predictions all over the place. In summary, really no strong signal for the next 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Seems like the probability of a strong El Nino this year is receding. Forecasters have lowered the probability of El Nino developing to 58%, from 65%, this winter. If El Niño emerges this year, it is likely to be weak. Other long range factors are at odds as the NAO and AO are predicted to go positive - in contrast the PNA is predicted to go positive. MJO while approaching phase 7and 8 mid December have amplitude predictions all over the place. In summary, really no strong signal for the next 14 days. The probability of a strong el nino is non-existent. The probability of any el nino has receded, but still has fairly good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The probability of a strong el nino is non-existent. The probability of any el nino has receded, but still has fairly good odds. Some pretty good analog winters with weak El Ninos. Locally, having a hard time remembering three frozen events before Dec.5. Still need a good -NAO in these type situations usually. However, only minor dips in the NAO last year seemed to cause repeated snow events. Hope the parents in Ewing have a good holiday and you too. We'll see if your return trip curse holds up this year ( one of the least known teleconnections). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Looking at the long range models it looks downright warm with very little chance of a winter event for the region through mid month. Would an expert out there be able to explain what's happening and when (if) the pattern might shift to one more conducive for a significant winter event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Looking at the long range models it looks downright warm with very little chance of a winter event for the region through mid month. Would an expert out there be able to explain what's happening and when (if) the pattern might shift to one more conducive for a significant winter event?SURE...just read Larry Cosgroves analysis in the vendor thread..GREAT read!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 SURE...just read Larry Cosgroves analysis in the vendor thread.. GREAT read!!!!! Still don't know the ultimate track of the typhoon. If it recurves that could be a AAA jump start for winter mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Did I hear a bark? Now don't get your snow goggles out just yet but something to watch for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Did I hear a bark? Now don't get your snow goggles out just yet but something to watch for early next week. Maybe a whimper in the distant burbs who may see a little wintry stuff... TWC for what it's worth through mid Dec....said unsure about the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Maybe a whimper in the distant burbs who may see a little wintry stuff... TWC for what it's worth through mid Dec....said unsure about the second half. Well, considering past winter forecasts from TWC, I'd expect a nationwide icebox. This was last year's infamously terrible forecast from TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Well, considering past winter forecasts from TWC, I'd expect a nationwide icebox. This was last year's infamously terrible forecast from TWC. True but this is somewhat consistent w/many others been thinking in the short term. Seasonal forecast are much more difficult and anyone can bust in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Euro has an ice storm along I-95 (well, at least at TTN) on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Hurricane starting to talk about a colder storm scenario by early week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 FWIW, I am not buying the strong storm solution. If this coastal does form I think it will be a weak sheared out wave. Not buying the EURO/GGEM solutions. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hurricane starting to talk about a colder storm scenario by early week! He did mention model runs during his forecast especially Euro....still see nothing worth noting for Philly/I-95...maybe the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This may be the season where Philly/I-95 get screwed....local burbs do ok and far burbs cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 GFS is on a different planet with the Tuesday system compared to other guidance. ECM hinting at Philly snow * N&W burbs mainly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Saw the euro and Canadian. They are barking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Blowtorch coming? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Blowtorch coming? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Damn, that's ugly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Blowtorch coming? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Venusian heat, don the flame retardant clothing and stay out of the sun unless necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 West of here will absolutely torch, but here on the east coast we'll be seasonal to somewhat above. Not a torch. Now the pattern is not pretty at all that's for sure, but we wont be flocking the the shore buying vast amounts of choco tacos from the Fudgy Wudgy man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 May be not choco tacos but definitely a window to pop a porterhouse or your favorite on the grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 May be not choco tacos but definitely a window to pop a porterhouse or your favorite on the grill. I may not be like many but I'll cook on the grill when it's 10F, wind and snow squalls. Throw in a football game and it's almost a gimmie. Either way we're not going to super torch which is acceptable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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