TeleConnectSnow Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Very cold and DRY run on today's 12z ECM day 7-10, yuck Why Yuck lol...it's literally the beginning of NOV. We haven't even hit winter time yet. The cold is GREAT to be here, I don't care if we dont get any precip. Lets get some record temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 7, 2014 Share Posted November 7, 2014 Why Yuck lol...it's literally the beginning of NOV. We haven't even hit winter time yet. The cold is GREAT to be here, I don't care if we dont get any precip. Lets get some record temps. You must have loved last winters post Prez day to early Aprils bitter cold near snow free streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Deep Deep Purplehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Have to watch the Nov 14-16 time frame for the first snow of the season. ECM and GFS offer hints at it. This is becoming more of a weak wave on a front of reinforcing cold. A larger storm of snow/rain becoming more likely a few days after it's passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 8, 2014 Share Posted November 8, 2014 Let's see just how low we can go this month. We're already expected to go around 70% below average according to the NOAA map, so I wouldn't be too surprised if after the current 6-10 day forecast section passes, we'll still be fairly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 *whistle* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 This looks almost identical to yesterday's 12z EURO at same period. Sick setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adh24 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 *whistle* What's the 500mb map look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What's the 500mb map look like? Its a bowling ball storm that ejects mostly east with blocking exiting stage right as well ahead of storm. Just thought it was interestin gto note at this point. It will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Have to watch the Nov 14-16 time frame for the first snow of the season. ECM and GFS offer hints at it. Just hours from the 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Need to watch for a sneaky winter storm chance next weekend with a wave on the arctic boundary. ECM picking up on the cold press better than GFS I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 If the teleconnections are to be believed, a period of normal to above normal temps are coming Thanksgiving through early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If this happens it sure looks like yet another brief period of warmth in the proverbial island of cold....kind of been the persistent pattern for more than the last year If the teleconnections are to be believed, a period of normal to above normal temps are coming Thanksgiving through early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 If this happens it sure looks like yet another brief period of warmth in the proverbial island of cold....kind of been the persistent pattern for more than the last year For the overwhelming majority of people in the region that don't live in a rural location at 800', DEC 2013, APR 2014, May 2014, JUN 2014, Sept 2014 & OCT 2014 averaged above normal so it's 50/50 over the past year. To take it a step further if a 3 week above average pattern does begin this weekend then one could actually say since SEPT this is an island of cold in a sea of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 18, 2014 Author Share Posted November 18, 2014 For the overwhelming majority of people in the region that don't live in a rural location at 800', DEC 2013, APR 2014, May 2014, JUN 2014, Sept 2014 & OCT 2014 averaged above normal so it's 50/50 over the past year. To take it a step further if a 3 week above average pattern does begin this weekend then one could actually say since SEPT this is an island of cold in a sea of warmth. I wish this board had a button where we could like individual posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Soooo....the 12Z GFS just got interesting for Wed/Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Soooo....the 12Z GFS just got interesting for Wed/Wed night. This setup feels out to sea. Giving this one 24 more hours to look believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 This setup feels out to sea. Giving this one 24 more hours to look believable Agreed. I could actually see coastal areas picking up a few hours of light (wet) snow as the LP pulls out of the area. The odds are certainly against accumulating snow for the I-95 corridor. Definitely a thread the needle situation so I doubt we will get some clarity on the system for at least another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weatherbell been on this for last 3 days - they anticipated the westward jog and they feel it is not quite done with the westward shift....going to be an interesting travel period. Agreed. I could actually see coastal areas picking up a few hours of light (wet) snow as the LP pulls out of the area. The odds are certainly against accumulating snow for the I-95 corridor. Definitely a thread the needle situation so I doubt we will get some clarity on the system for at least another day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 12z ECM gives SEPA a big white turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Weatherbell been on this for last 3 days - they anticipated the westward jog and they feel it is not quite done with the westward shift....going to be an interesting travel period. Of course they have....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Snowmaps have near 12" what a fun run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Yep....he is really patting himself on the back for this one....not real nice to see! but can't say it is our of character for him! Of course they have....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If anybody wants to believe the fantasy snow bomb and has travel plans snow accumulation starts around noon Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I willl be down in Philly area as of Tuesday night. Last Thanksgiving storm I recall with snow around the late 80's. Not sure on the year, but we got around 4 inches down around rt 926 & rt 100 area the chadds ford, west chester area where I lived as a youngster. Hoping the magic works this time. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like the 32 degree line is west of Philly on the 18z GFS. Would this be snow then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I willl be down in Philly area as of Tuesday night. Last Thanksgiving storm I recall with snow around the late 80's. Not sure on the year, but we got around 4 inches down around rt 926 & rt 100 area the chadds ford, west chester area where I lived as a youngster. Hoping the magic works this time. Best Even a little snow for Thanksgiving would be nice. Bigger storm a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Looks like the 32 degree line is west of Philly on the 18z GFS. Would this be snow then? I would not watch it to0 much. still days out. it could all go up in smoke quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Holly is bullish and I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF ISPRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM. Great AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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