Harbourton Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Betting on an inverted trough this far out is like buying a ticket for the Mega Millions. Euro has Sat. event north of the GFS. Looking forward to brutal cold with a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS has consistently had this feature between DC & NYC for the past 8 runs & actually has moved it south the past 2 runs.Check ggem and others. Gfs not my model of choice here.Edit: Looking at wrong system u guys r right no north trend yet on this. I was looking ahead lol. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Fwiw LC honking for snow potential Saturday into Sunday. Thinking along the same lines...slp should be closer to the coast based on most 500mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Check ggem and others. Gfs not my model of choice here. Edit: Looking at wrong system u guys r right no north trend yet on this. I was looking ahead lol. Oops. There's overrunning potential early next week, so it will be something to watch. Models will show all kinds of solutions between now and Monday...at this juncture, it's best to just understand there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Fwiw LC honking for snow potential Saturday into Sunday. Thinking along the same lines...slp should be closer to the coast based on most 500mb charts. I thought he said it was going to snow yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Bluewave over in the NY forum posted about the PDO being at record levels in January. Didn't realize that - it was so positive that dumped cold air into the NE allowing them to get great storms. But we were too far south to benefit without any Atlantic blocking. Great post! http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Check ggem and others. Gfs not my model of choice here. Edit: Looking at wrong system u guys r right no north trend yet on this. I was looking ahead lol. Oops. other models all came north aside from GFS so you're probably right, northern stream stuff has definitely run its course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 and just like that 18z GFS follows the Euro moving the inverted trough north to NYC / LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 and just like that 18z GFS follows the Euro moving the inverted trough north to NYC / LI And it turns the 17th-18th event into some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 and just like that 18z GFS follows the Euro moving the inverted trough north to NYC / LI And it turns the 17th-18th event into some flurries Sheesh...I wish this winter would just end already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nothing even in the LR....maybe a cutter. Hopefully that resets the pattern for early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And it turns the 17th-18th event into some flurries 00z turns it into an apps runner. so it's bouncing around but more importantly, no high pressure to be found so even if we get a good track, cold air will be an issue after being frigid for the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z turns it into an apps runner. so it's bouncing around but more importantly, no high pressure to be found so even if we get a good track, cold air will be an issue after being frigid for the next 6 days. Yes, looks like the PV retreats to Central Canada later next week after our arctic blast this weekend. Nothing to block next week's storm from cutting. Gives a good thump of overrunning on most guidance anyway. PV does return to a more favorable position after the storm, of course....then it's dry and cold with the northern stream clipper track continuing, if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The 0z Canadian actually trended south and stronger with the saturday system.. It gives us a pretty decent event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I love mornings like this, when you look at the Medium/Long Range thread and see that the last post was made at 12:12 AM ... no point wasting a minute of my day looking at the overnight guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Any threat outside of 48 hours for anybody SE of I-95, look for a Wilmington, NC jackpot. To me, any snow event, if any this season will sneak up on us last minute. Those in MA forum rooting for a front end thump must live well west where CAD holds. We give up cold air here easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z euro congrats Boston you get your weekend blizzard back Down here I95 goes from frigid to rain to frigid in record time next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z euro congrats Boston you get your weekend blizzard back Down here I95 goes from frigid to rain to frigid in record time next Tuesday This really is the worst possible pattern in winter. Brutal cold, but no blocking. There's nothing to keep the cold locked in for a significant event. There's just absolutely no chance of a significant event in this pattern. I'd take Ray's +18 degree temp departure this month with lake cutter after lake cutter over this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This really is the worst possible pattern in winter. Brutal cold, but no blocking. There's nothing to keep the cold locked in for a significant event. There's just absolutely no chance of a significant event in this pattern. I'd take Ray's +18 degree temp departure this month with lake cutter after lake cutter over this crap. Where have I heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The completely worthless utterly useless not worth the electric used in the leds to light the screen Eurowx maps paint 4-5" In SEPA including Philly this weekend as blowoff and backwash from the next Boston blizzard bomb . Inverted trough centers on NYC with 7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Times sure have changed. Up until two weeks ago I knew those maps as being a touch conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 30mph winds at zero degrees and another failed Eurowx map is going to be awesome can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm coming home this weekend so I'll try to bring the snow magnet with me, but I'm not optimistic about this one for PA. I'm kinda pissed that I'll probably miss out on the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm coming home this weekend so I'll try to bring the snow magnet with me, but I'm not optimistic about this one for PA. I'm kinda pissed that I'll probably miss out on the blizzard. I have family headed to Boston for fri-sun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I have family headed to Boston for fri-sun lolThey might never make it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The boat for a MECS has sailed, but I wouldn't rule out the chance for a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18ZGFS joins the rest of the models with a much better look for next week, positive trends today across the board HOPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18ZGFS joins the rest of the models with a much better look for next week, positive trends today across the board HOPE Hope has overflowed days 5-7 this winter, I have 150" of digital hope. Inside 96hrs chops your head off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Earthlight has a nice write up regarding the possible weekend storm. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/02/11/significant-storm-possible-weekend-details-uncertain/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The completely worthless utterly useless not worth the electric used in the leds to light the screen Eurowx maps paint 4-5" In SEPA including Philly this weekend as blowoff and backwash from the next Boston blizzard bomb . Inverted trough centers on NYC with 7.5" 0z GFS says flurries ECM out to lunch this weekend Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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