RedSky Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Threat on or around the 9th gaining more support....GFS has been steady, HP is in a better spot: It concerns me that the GFS is already too far north for that event and it likes to trend north. It's on a hot streak as well with the last couple threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 No real blocking tlll mid-month and the MJO may be in a good spot also. Storms predicted by the models are suspect till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ensembles from EURO/GFS look damn good for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ensembles from EURO/GFS look damn good for Feb in what ways? lots of blocking/cold air around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 in what ways? lots of blocking/cold air around? Cold as heck, massive ridge out west, blocking for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Love the look of the 12Z euro at 240hrs. Huge ridge in the west with a trough going negative tilt with base around Mississippi. Let's see what 0Z tonight shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Teleconnections are holding on indicating something happening at mid month. GFS may already feeling it with its crazy cold as someone mentioned after 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Cold and clippers for days 10-15, super yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Cold and clippers for days 10-15, super yawn. May be one will turn out to be a Manitoba Mauler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Cold and clippers for days 10-15, super yawn. I'll believe it when it happens. With the way the models are beyond day 2, I'd say there's a better chance of mostly sunny and near normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I'll believe it when it happens. With the way the models are beyond day 2, I'd say there's a better chance of mostly sunny and near normal temps. Yup cold has been over modeled all year long. I'd be surprised if we are even below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Check out Don Sutherland's post #590 over in the NY forum under Late Weekend Storm threat.. Statically gives credence that a -AO is more important for significant storms here than a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Just for fun, did anybody notice the repeat of last weekend on the 12z GFS at 288 hours? I thought I was looking at a run from last week for a moment. It was a bit of an oddball storm track for this time of year, obviously it can happen, it just did...but once in a winter is enough, although I know there are those who made out quite nicely thank you. It being shown at that range probably ensures it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 ECM extended is endless reinforcing arctic high pressures after this weekend and dry. If you like your snow cover you get to keep your snow cover(in Kamu's case the snowpile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 There is a sh3tload of cold air in Canada ''probably the coldest of the year." If the AO goes negative as modeled, cold end to February. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Threat on or around the 9th gaining more support....GFS has been steady, HP is in a better spot: i heard that was the date of LC's "triple phaser" possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 HOLY EPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro ensembles have a really really strong signal for a MECS/HECS Feb 15-17 fwiw. Based on recent experiences, I am staying off that train for now but pointing it out to those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro ensembles have a really really strong signal for a MECS/HECS Feb 15-17 fwiw. Based on recent experiences, I am staying off that train for now but pointing it out to those interested. All we need is one good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I know it's the dynamic model forecasts, but the majority have (MJO) it poking into Phase 8. Should help us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro ensembles have a really really strong signal for a MECS/HECS Feb 15-17 fwiw. Based on recent experiences, I am staying off that train for now but pointing it out to those interested. I can't see it, but what does it show? Miller A? B? Long over running event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 ECM extended is endless reinforcing arctic high pressures after this weekend and dry. If you like your snow cover you get to keep your snow cover(in Kamu's case the snowpile) Lol ummm even the snow pile is dwindling ....bring in Spring already it's just one of those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 All we need is one good storm This would follow 1983 lol just a week later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I can't see it, but what does it show? Miller A? B? Long over running event? Long over running event that turns into hybrid Miller A/B. Well positioned ridge out west. Energy diving leeside of Rockies. I am looking at the mean so it is smoothed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS with a crazy cold snow bomb next weekend, likely will be the next Lucy and the football storm we have to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS with a crazy cold snow bomb next weekend, likely will be the next Lucy and the football storm we have to track. Storm went poof on the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 While it's way out in fantasy land the 12Z Euro has a nice set up at day ten. Only ten days away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 While it's way out in fantasy land the 12Z Euro has a nice set up at day ten. Only ten days away lol. Yeah, that's the one that the ensembles were showing yesterday from 12Z. Nice to see it show up on the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah, that's the one that the ensembles were showing yesterday from 12Z. Nice to see it show up on the op. I know we've been down this road many times this season, but fwiw the 12z GFS is looking pretty tasty in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Haven't seen this in a while. Both the Euro and the GFS are advertising a cross polar flow in the 8-10 means. BRRRRR! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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