Thunder Road Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Actually, I saw a pic on twitter of a fully condensed tor. I posted it on the US Tor twitter account. The guy who posted it said he took it at 505 cdt which is right at the best signature on radar. Said it was NW of Luverne at 120th or somthing. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. U.S. Tornadoes @USTornadoes Just NW Luverne,MN at around 5:05 CDT. #mnwx RT @e21woodley: Actual tornado from today northwest of town pic.twitter.com/AsOUtkriiG Yup. Saw this or a different photo of the same tornado on KDLT tonight. I'm going to mention it to the people at the office tomorrow, but unless the EM reported damage they'll probably just call it an EF0. I also saw a photo of a TOG south of Sioux Falls with the initial supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Currently sitting in Tucumcari trying to figure out which direction to head. Was initially going to follow storms coming off the Sangres between here and Las Vegas but that area looks too stable now. Think I'm now going to go south to Clovis and play the OFB(s) again. The HRR devlops some discrete supes west of Clovis and North of Roswell so thats what I"m going to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Tornado watch expected for the Front Range by 19z, this has been quite a productive upsloping pattern we have been in. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014AREAS AFFECTED...ERN COCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 081731Z - 081900ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADOTHIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...ALONGWITH A RISK OF TORNADOES.DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSSTHE CNTRL ROCKIES AT ROUGHLY 35KT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASINGACROSS MUCH OF CO WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING ININTENSITY FROM BOULDER COUNTY...SWWD TO LA PLATA COUNTY. NUMEROUSBREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS EXIST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH SUBSTANTIALHEATING ONGOING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF TSTMS.GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A BROKEN SQUALLLINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THEHIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONTRANGE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND TORNADOESCAN NOT BE RULED OUT EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. HOWEVER...THEREIS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME COMMON ASSQUALL LINE MATURES OVER THE PLAINS AND DRIVES SEWD TOWARD THE CO/NMBORDER...EVENTUALLY PROPAGATING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER THISEVENING...DARROW/WEISS.. 06/08/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Tornado watch out, got two supercells developing south of Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Got another funnel and some cool shots yesterday but no tornado. I decided just to stay home today even though storms are firing less than two hours away and its killing me. http://imgur.com/SfsKuGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 8, 2014 Share Posted June 8, 2014 Year of the high elevation tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Hoping to chase tomorrow, but I'm afraid of the MCS screwing things up. As it stands, this will probably be my final chance out this year unless there is something promising this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Tornado warning near Little Rock now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 9, 2014 Share Posted June 9, 2014 Book-end / line-echo-wave-pattern moving toward Memphis at the moment. Appropriately, it is tornado warned in Arkansas. Tennessee Valley sub-form will probably cover it in the coming hours as it works through North Mississippi and West Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Appears to be a tornado on Josh Alecci's feed on TVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Moderate risk upgrade mentioned for tomorrow. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS WITH VERY LARGE HAILAND DAMAGING WIND WITHIN THIS REGION...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BEINCLUDED IN A MODERATE RISK UPGRADE IN DAY 1 UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Looks like Texas will have a set-up on Thursday. Outflow boundary will intersect front and/or triple point in Central Texas or perhaps North Texas. I expect some morning rain to be in progress early Thursday. It should establish an outflow boundary OFB to work with. The 850 mb winds may be straight south, not backed too much south of the OFB; however, those 850 winds should back slightly along the OFB. Winds quickly veer aloft starting at 700 up through 500 mb. Jet stream level winds should be just enough. All of the above presents a possible chasable set-up in Central/North Texas on Thursday. Surface moisture should return, despite dews down in the low to mid-60s today. Dews in the 70s have returned near Houston and are heading up I-45 tonight. It is always possible that morning thunderstorms never weaken, and create a sloppy environment near the triple point TP. If chasing, my preferred cell would be at the TP or the second one east of the TP. Some guidance shows cells going south of the TP along the front. Those would offer clearer viewing, but I'm not sure about tornado probability down there. Either way looks like some Texas size fun on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 NAM forecast sounding for Waco TX on Thursday night (7pm). Looks like some fat CAPE (2500 J/kg range) and a veering wind profile with weaker winds below 700mb, about 40 kt of 0-6km shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Low level flow looks pretty anemic though which should temper some of the tornado potential. Also, there's more CAPE in that sounding than 2500 J/kg if that is the profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Yeah, low level winds look pretty wussy but the rapid veering to the NW flow aloft certainly helps. CAPE also has the potential to be ridiculous, with surface-based values running anywhere from 3000-5000 J/kg. If we can get just enough wind backing at the surface and/or if the winds can be just a little stronger than progged, we might have something. Preliminary plan here is to drive up to Hillsboro after a morning of work tomorrow and play things from there. 2014, just as I've given up hope on you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Pretty tight rotation on the SVR warned storm near the CO/KS border approaching Burlington, CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Low level flow looks pretty anemic though which should temper some of the tornado potential. Also, there's more CAPE in that sounding than 2500 J/kg if that is the profile. But I wouldn't trust how it's handling the bl. Even with a pitiful 5 kt surface wind, I don't know you'll get that much moisture layer right at the sfc. You kick it up to 10 kt and you definitely won't, and then you have to start worrying a bit about high LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I'm not super-concerned about moisture mixing out too much. Moisture return looks to be of great quality this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I wouldn't be super concerned either. Just thinking that the rapid moistening in the bl is probably unrealistic, considering you aren't dealing with corn or some other vegetation that evapotranspirates in huge quantities. Side note: based on your sig, shouldn't you have a red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I will not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk Upgrade from the Storm Prediction Center at 1730Z today across portions of the Hill County/E/SE Texas (N of I-10) extending E into Louisiana. We need to watch for development later today around Junction into Austin/Waco and possibly College Station on E toward Lufkin and just S of Shreveport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Tough forecast shaping up for Texas today. While it is not a travel set-up, it is absolutely a chase day if one lives in state. Two boundaries intersect the synoptic front. North boundary in blue is outflow from thunderstorms. South boundary in red marks the leading edge of more robust south winds. This afternoon instability will be higher on the south red boundary, but it may lift north through the day. Ambient low level turning is slightly better on the north blue OFB; look for it to drift south. High res models keep the boundaries separate, with cells going on each, and that makes conceptual sense. High-res NAM introduces better storm inflow on the south cells, which would be along the south boundary. I assume the NAM likes the stronger south winds, vs little more turning north. HRRR has cells going earlier than the NAM; and, I'd trust HRRR timing and position better. However my hybrid forecast relies on NAM for cell selection. I'd note the best cell relative to the others on the NAM; then, go to the same cell in that relative position on the HRRR. Maybe that is too much model mania, but it is just a forecast. Nowcast I'm still all about surface and VIS satellite; and, that will be the method after about 19-20Z. Finally I would suggest not chasing within the DFW Metroplex. However Interstates on the southeast side of Dallas are usually not crowded, even in rush hour, in contrast to 635 on the north side. One could use southeast Dallas Interstates to travel or get into position, but I would never chase within the Metroplex. Should go south of town anyway. Enjoy! EDIT: Cell of the day will probably be in Central Texas if not South Texas. Looks to start along I-35 SAT-AUS and later up toward North Texas. South storms should have better inflow than north storms. Nowcast which one of the southern cluster. Should get really going east of I-35, better for both people and chasers. At 1300 Central 1800 UTC outflow boundary sat from just north of Austin over to Huntsville, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 I'm at work, but near full Sun in Houston, and as a guy who once listened to an AM polka station in Jarrell while driving between college and DFW, I took interest in that storm, very high CAPE can apparently overcome light surface winds, especially if there is a low level boundary enhancing helicity near the storm. I've seen numbers near 6000 J/Kg for the estimated CAPE at Jarrell. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/jarrell.htm MUCAPE at FWD was already almost 3600 J/Kg at 7 am. 4133 J/Kg at LCH. Even MLCAPE is almost 3000 J/Kg there. And there are boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Watch likely for central Texas. BTW 93/73 at Hondo, TX ----- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 121919Z - 122115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Wow, no 10% tornado at the intersection of the front and OFB on the 20Z, which would still be slight. Currently OFB sits from just north of Austin over to north of Huntsville, TX. More precisely might be from between Georgetown and Temple, stretching east over toward Madisonville on I-45. HRRR is not clear on which cells rotate best, so SPC punts. What about some fundamental meteorology? Might be a cell or two ahead of the main cluster. Such a cell would have access to the more rich inflow. Cells may start west of I-35, but perhaps not really get spinning until east of I-35. Golfball to baseball hail can be expected, however, shortly after radar echos appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Tornado watch until midnight for central TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 You don't see 5500 J/kg of CAPE with decent shear too often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Supercell moving SSE towards Abilene bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Thanks for all these awesome updates, y'all. I'm here near Ft. Hood. Should be an interesting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 tornado warning issued for this strong velocity couplet (25 mi south of Junction.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Supercell moving SSE towards Abilene, bares watching. Nudist stormchasers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.