andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0312 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 282012Z - 282215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO EXPECTED. A WATCH IS LIKELY BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO CNTRL MT WHERE STRONG HEATING ALSO PERSISTS. THE PRESENCE OF COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS WELL AS AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGER AND WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOWEST. ANY SUPERCELLS FORMING UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO...ASSUMING OUTFLOW DOES NOT GET OUT OF HAND. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 To add on, the 19z GGW sounding showed a pretty stout cap that will take some work to erode, SK near the WF should still be the best play. 18z NAM shows some nasty soundings up there as late as 03z (still only weakly capped at that time too). Low-mid 60s dewpoints have reached east central MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 19z HRRR is looking pretty impressive with multiple supercells near the WF in SK and also further south into central/northern MT. It has done well with CI and storm location recently so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 First attempt at initiation over the Great Sand Hills. Dp's only in the upper 40's across that area as of now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 First attempt at initiation over the Great Sand Hills. Dp's only in the upper 40's across that area as of now though. Also have storms going east of Billings. Looks like upper 50s dewpoints have reached the border in NE MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Blue boxed. Chaser hype wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Blue boxed. Chaser hype wins again. 5% tornado risk last two days, red box. 10% tornado risk today, blue box. Lol wut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 5% tornado risk last two days, red box. 10% tornado risk today, blue box. Lol wut. Yeah that aspect is a bit odd. SPC is awesome but they've seemingly had greater forecaster to forecaster continuity issues lately than normal at least from what I can see. Spreads always looked like an issue despite quality shear (plus some kinked hodos in MT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Good lord the RAP is such an awful model, it's showing upper 60s/70s dewpoints in central Montana currently (and then other times it is vastly underdoing them and overmixing with poor temperature progs). Someone put it out of its misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Good lord the RAP is such an awful model, it's showing upper 60s/70s dewpoints in central Montana currently (and then other times it is vastly underdoing them and overmixing with poor temperature progs). Someone put it out of its misery. Doesn't it serve to initialize the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 Nice supercell near Tyner, SK... Threw off a left split about 45min ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Doesn't it serve to initialize the HRRR? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 Nice supercell near Tyner, SK... Threw off a left split about 45min ago as well. Still going...Heading east and now just north of Central Butte. Pic from Timmer about 30min ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Should we start discussing Sat-Sun in here? At FSD we've been making fun of TWC putting out a TORCON 5 for eastern SD. imo, it looks like central SD along the WF could be in play (more so than the eastern part of the state anyway) but you'll have issues with too much precip up there. Better structure is probably down along the dryline in western KS or southwestern NE, although bases are probably a bit high for tornadoes. I'm considering chasing the northern target since it's a weekend, but I'm not all that excited about it. If it ends up being a 4+ hour drive, eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 The cell southwest of Gillette Wyoming looks to have some rotation in it. In between radars in that area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Chilling in Woodward, OK, waiting to make a play north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 I'm helping out at NWS FSD with their severe operations and right out the window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 nice shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Landspout down NW of Ulysses, KS currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Looks like 2014 wins again today. Not a great looking day but ended up fairly meh still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Bit of a mess on velocity from KUEX but there appears to be a pretty robust circulation on the tornado warned embedded supercell near Belleville, KS, KTWX shows it as well. Edit: confirmed tornado with damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Got to the south western KS around 4 and watched the southern two cells. Saw a remarkably wide land spout at one point (not the one that prompted the tornado warning), and the southern most cell had a decent mesocyclone and wall cloud at one point. Stupid epic lightning show along this MCS right now. I'm seeing a good 5-8 flashes per second across my whole field of vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 For the second time this week I saw a funnel cloud out the window of the NWS office. It was in the rain shaft. I snapped a pic with my iPhone but it didn't really come out, and then it dissipated a few seconds earlier. Nonetheless, yet another exciting day on the ops floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Tornado Watch. Pretty remarkable what a sleeper setup this was up here today, even though there's only been one actual tor report so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Somebody else in the office got a slightly better picture. The funnel is right in the middle over the gray building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Somebody else in the office got a slightly better picture. The funnel is right in the middle over the gray building.Had to really pump up the contrast to see it on my poor screen but yeah it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCS_hunter Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Nah guys that's a rain-wrapped, multi-vortex wedge. *rolls eyes* But that is impressive. The storm by Luverne also had a nice hook on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Nah guys that's a rain-wrapped, multi-vortex wedge. *rolls eyes* But that is impressive. The storm by Luverne also had a nice hook on it. Yup. Multiple reports of funnels but no tornado reported with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Actually, I saw a pic on twitter of a fully condensed tor. I posted it on the US Tor twitter account. The guy who posted it said he took it at 505 cdt which is right at the best signature on radar. Said it was NW of Luverne at 120th or somthing. ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 U.S. Tornadoes @USTornadoes Just NW Luverne,MN at around 5:05 CDT. #mnwx RT @e21woodley: Actual tornado from today northwest of town pic.twitter.com/AsOUtkriiG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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