Chinook Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 25 knots of shear and baseball size hail in the Black Hills. That is a bit of a freak storm for such low shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 NWS met has posted pics of it.. no tornado. So many BS reports these days. Can't trust anything until you see vid lol. Chaser culture blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Chaser culture blows.Possible something briefly tho it was sitting behind outflow. Social media curse. Still have a hard time understanding how NWS doesn't vet reports better tho. See TX yesterday as a glaring example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Possible something briefly tho it was sitting behind outflow. Social media curse. Still have a hard time understanding how NWS doesn't vet reports better tho. See TX yesterday as a wrong example. Looks like it was reported by someone in the Forest Service per LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Looks like it was reported by someone in the Forest Service per LSR.Does look like maybe it was legit. Hard to see on my phone https://twitter.com/bakerspazing/status/471380929995628544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Strong rotation with the tor'd cell near Christine, TX (south of San Antonio). Impressive environment down there with ESRH of 200-300+ m2/s2, dewpoints into the upper 60s to mid 70s closer to the coast and MLCAPE into the 2000+ J/kg range, wouldn't be surprised if a tornado watch is hoisted shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Great hook on that cell, tornado watch has been issued for S TX, 50/30 tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Picture of the Rapid City area tornado via twitter https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/471386616619999232/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Strong couplet basically right over I-37 in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Here's the video that's been floating around of the Watford City, ND tornado from yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 12z model runs continue to paint quite an impressive picture for tomorrow in E MT and perhaps into S SK as the lead edge of stronger mid level flow begins to nose into the region ahead of the Northern Rockies ULL. A tongue of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints looks to advect into the area encouraged by strong backing of the low level flow (which will also push low level shear into impressive ranges with large, clockwise curved hodographs) and, in conjunction with steep mid level lapse rates, should lead to MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg developing south of the WF. Capping still appears to be a bit of a concern with the warm 700 mb temperatures in place. The latitudinal extent of those will be crucial in determining storm coverage tomorrow. Assuming LCL heights aren't too limiting, there could be a few tornadic supercells given the environment. I am looking at the 18z NAM, point forecast of Montana/Saskatchewan border, south of Moose Jaw, 00z Thursday (6pm Wednesday). It shows a very nice temperature and wind profile, with a surface dew point of about 60 (15.5C for you Canadian folks out there.) It has a consistently increasing wind from 20kt at the surface to 65kt at 250mb, with respectable directional shear, and about 300m2/s2 of 3km SR-helicity. CAPE is about 3000 J/kg. The 4km NAM actually doesn't show much convection around there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Here's the video that's been floating around of the Watford City, ND tornado from yesterday... No words, mainly for the stupidity but what a great shot. God made idiots to give us tornado videos from their trucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Hodographs in southern SK are pretty silly near the warm front tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 192... VALID 272234Z - 280000Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN SUMMARY THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 192 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT MAY REMAIN LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS SRN THIRD OF WW 192 INCLUDING THE CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY THROUGH 00Z. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED OVER LIVE OAK COUNTY IN SRN TX MOVING SOUTH AT 20-25 KT. STORM MERGERS HAD RESULTED IN A TEMPORARY DISRUPTION OF STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE REORGANIZING AND TAKING ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED AT THE MERGER OF TWO BOUNDARIES AND WILL TRACK SWD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. THE VWP FROM CORPUS CHRISTI INDICATES VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH UP TO 150 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND ORGANIZE A LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES SWD INTO THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FARTHER NORTH OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER KERR...BANDERA AND GILLESPIE COUNTIES ACROSS SCNTRL TX. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN INITIATED ALONG A SLOWLY WWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO BEFORE POSSIBLY BECOMING UNDERCUT. ..DIAL.. 05/27/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Pretty manly hook in Jim Wells County, which could affect Alice, home of the South Texas oilfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The storm over Buchanan Lake has a solid velocity signature despite not being a very intense storm otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Storm west of San Antonio also has a well developed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 After passing through Alice, TX - looks like a debris signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 After passing through Alice, TX - looks like a debris signature. Velocity signature looks pretty messy so I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Velocity signature looks pretty messy so I doubt it. Do you have dual-pol? I only have GRLevel2, so I can't check it out. Just looked odd to see 70 dBZ in the center of the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Velocity signature looks pretty messy so I doubt it. I'd agree with this. Velocity is messy, there is no drop in CC, and KDP hasn't cut out either. Looks like a rain (or hail) wrapped mesocyclone to me. I've been keeping an eye on it for a bit and that supercell has remained quite outflow dominant for most of its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 I'd agree with this. Velocity is messy, there is no drop in CC, and KDP hasn't cut out either. Looks like a rain (or hail) wrapped mesocyclone to me. I've been keeping an eye on it for a bit and that supercell has remained quite outflow dominant for most of its life. A lot of precip loading in the RFD, seems like typical 2014 behaviour. Meanwhile that cell near Burnet has had a strong couplet for like 10 scans in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 A lot of precip loading in the RFD, seems like typical 2014 behaviour. Meanwhile that cell near Burnet has had a strong couplet for like 10 scans in a row now. Yep, I was originally set up in Burnet today but decided to dive south for the southern storm before calling off my chase today. I'm really kicking myself for my decision right now. Ian is putting some pretty good photos of that storm on Twitter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 What I'm missing right now via Ian's Twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 Tornado warning dropped for Burnet cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 What I'm missing right now via Ian's Twitter: Pretty storm. Every day had something missing. So much structure tho. Staying in Austin then going home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 LCL heights are probably the thing missing tomorrow if moisture is being overestimated (along with capping). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 LCL heights are probably the thing missing tomorrow if moisture is being overestimated (along with capping).Last time we skipped MT at the end of a trip awesomeness ensued in 2012 so there's that going for it. Wanted to go but we are so far south it just doesn't make sense at this pt in the trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2014 Share Posted May 28, 2014 10% tor probs in the D1 outlook for northeast MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2014 Author Share Posted May 28, 2014 If chasing today I'd probably initially set-up in in/near a triangle from the Shaunavon to the Great Sand Hills to Swift Current. Nice tongue of moisture and theta-e into that area, with backed winds. Should have a decent threat in the 21-4z time-frame around there, and then transitioning east. One of these days when there's a solid 2 or especially 3 day potential up there I'll give it a go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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