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2014 Short Term Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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That supercell across the border west of Del Rio is looking pretty impressive, the most recent MCD had mention of this as ESE surface flow transports upper 60s or even low 70s dewpoints into that region.

Some chasers down there too. Everyone else trying to figure out where it crosses into the US

Environment pretty good in SE NM now but cap not giving just yet.

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Late initiation but another stunner with structure tho maybe the highest bases we've seen. Lost track of how many supercells this trip.

Although the tubes were rare, a successful trip over all. Thanks for the rain.

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We caught a tornado-y thing today:

No visible condensation funnel, but the circulation was right under the middle of the mesocyclone, so I'm going to strongly assume it was a tornado.

We geeked out a lot more than we should have. Ten days of chasing with no tornadoes will do that.

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12z model runs continue to paint quite an impressive picture for tomorrow in E MT and perhaps into S SK as the lead edge of stronger mid level flow begins to nose into the region ahead of the Northern Rockies ULL. A tongue of upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints looks to advect into the area encouraged by strong backing of the low level flow (which will also push low level shear into impressive ranges with large, clockwise curved hodographs) and, in conjunction with steep mid level lapse rates, should lead to MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg developing south of the WF. Capping still appears to be a bit of a concern with the warm 700 mb temperatures in place. The latitudinal extent of those will be crucial in determining storm coverage tomorrow. Assuming LCL heights aren't too limiting, there could be a few tornadic supercells given the environment.

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