Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Think it's sitting just north of the boundary for now but early. Hopefully it will latch on and not be an HP. Not confident about the latter heh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 The cells further west are much nicer, but their bases are really high. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Think it's sitting just north of the boundary for now but early. Hopefully it will latch on and not be an HP. Not confident about the latter heh.. crappy storm nonetheless. Not even a SVR warning on it EDIT: Also basing off of radar trends, it might develop into a bow echo pretty quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 The cells further west are much nicer, but their bases are really high. Sent from my iPhone near Pecos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 crappy storm nonetheless. Not even a SVR warning on it EDIT: Also basing off of radar trends, it might develop into a bow echo pretty quick...Cool thanks for dropping knowledge We could go west of the dry line sure that's going to be easy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Cool thanks for dropping knowledge We could go west of the dry line sure that's going to be easy too I'd go south toward Ft. Stockton, appears to be a decent discrete storm down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I'd go south toward Ft. Stockton, appears to be a decent discrete storm down that way.We are looking at both. Your posts are pretty useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Lol, jayhawkers they don't need a play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 We are looking at both. Your posts are pretty useless. not much analysis someone can give off of an iPhone, but thanks for your valuable input. Also as I said, the original storm did indeed develop into a cluster/bow echo. Regardless no storms look too impressive today, so you're pretty much wasting gas at the this point IMO seeing as to how the storms in the best environment (near Pecos) have failed to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 not much analysis someone can give off of an iPhone, but thanks for your valuable input. Also as I said, the original storm did indeed develop into a cluster/bow echo. Regardless no storms look too impressive today, so you're pretty much wasting gas at the this point IMO seeing as to how the storms in the best environment (near Pecos) have failed to do anything. Ian and company know what they are doing, might want to dial back the criticism, furthermore it is only 3-4pm local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Ian and company know what they are doing, might want to dial back the criticism, furthermore it is only 3-4pm local time. Oh I know they do, he always takes good pictures. But I'm just responding to his criticism of my posts. (Yes I know my posts had very little subsidence in them, and we're pretty general) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 not much analysis someone can give off of an iPhone, but thanks for your valuable input. Also as I said, the original storm did indeed develop into a cluster/bow echo. Regardless no storms look too impressive today, so you're pretty much wasting gas at the this point IMO seeing as to how the storms in the best environment (near Pecos) have failed to do anything. Oh I know they do, he always takes good pictures. But I'm just responding to his criticism of my posts. (Yes I know my posts had very little subsidence in them, and we're pretty general) Seriously, read more and post less. Also that's not a bow echo, it's a HP supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Beautiful shelf but don't think it's coming back and it's sitting north of the boundary. Sorry for being rude but obviously we know what you were telling us. We are bailing south tho not sure much more hope there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Beautiful shelf but don't think it's coming back and it's sitting north of the boundary. Sorry for being rude but obviously we know what you were telling us. it's alright. Lol. I took it a little too literally/harsh I suppose. That storm is messy as heck, and keeps changing convective mode, appears pretty outflow dominate too given the surge of the RFD recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Tornadoes may be a figment of our imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Sent our COD chasing trip west to Pecos to play the upslope later on between 0-3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0344 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NMCONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...VALID 242044Z - 242215ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOESCONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 181.DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCINGWSWWD FROM THE TX BIG COUNTRY TO THE TX TRANS-PECOS AND EXTENDINGNWD INTO S-CNTRL NM. DESPITE THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO SAGSWD...COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE IS STILL RELATIVELY MOIST -- E.G.DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FURTHERMORE...SFC PRESSUREFALLS OF 1.5-2.5 MB PER 2 HOURS IN ITS WAKE SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS IS MODIFYING WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING A TENDENCY FOR ANTECEDENTNLY WINDS TO VEER TO ENELY/ELY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEASTMARGINAL-MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY EXTENDING N OF THEBOUNDARY...PROVIDED THE OVERLYING EML PLUME.IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STRONGESTCONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INVOF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN ITSWAKE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND ERN TX TRANS-PECOS NEWDTO THE SRN FLANK OF A MULTICELL CLUSTER CROSSING THE TX BIG COUNTRY.THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THEPOST-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY COOL DOME. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORMFARTHER S ALONG A CONFLUENCE AXIS AND INVOF TERRAIN-ENHANCED ASCENT.LARGE HAIL -- INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL -- AND DMGG WINDS WILL BEPOSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS/SUSTAINEDCONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. MARKED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SAMPLED BELOW 2 KM AGLPER THE MAF VWP AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY BOLSTERTHE TORNADO POTENTIAL BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY OWINGTO THE RECENT ACCELERATION OF COOL DOME MODIFICATION...COHEN.. 05/24/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Morning convection displacing everything south ftl. And it'll happen again tonight probably. Can't win in 2014 when it comes to tornadoes. We left entirely and are hoping for some late upslope action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I don't understand why some chasers are still playing with the elevated supercells north of the OFB? Cause they have a hook? lol okay. Easy to tell where the big updrafts are and the ones feeding off the warm air south of the boundary (near I-10) I mean just look at the cores on them compared to the craps storms north of the boundary. Either be playing the upslope or south. 76dbz now on storm right along I-10 with TBSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Glad I called off the chase upon checking radar/sat this morning. Just had a multicell storm roll through town here that was about as photogenic as most of the streams right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I don't understand why some chasers are still playing with the elevated supercells north of the OFB? Cause they have a hook? lol okay. Easy to tell where the big updrafts are and the ones feeding off the warm air south of the boundary (near I-10) I mean just look at the cores on them compared to the craps storms north of the boundary. Either be playing the upslope or south. 76dbz now on storm right along I-10 with TBSS Goes back to a lot of chasers not knowing what they are looking at. We left the N cell pretty fast.. Maybe too fast.. But it was never much more than outflow junk. Same thing south tho really and we hit one south of the boundary. Problem with the further south one is the terrain and roads are awful.Edit: of course now th northern one is tornado warned.. Tho many unneeded ones today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 The one that just recently came north of 10 had a wall cloud briefly and then dissipated. Just a bunch of scuddy junk now. And yeah, the roads north of 10 are bad enough. South of 10 is a nightmare. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Got to the line late, but had enough time for some action. (6-7 p.m. or so) The northern most cell (the one that was originally warned when it didn't look worthy of a Tornado Warning) developed a rotating wall cloud near the end of its cycle and we caught some of that. The cell below it near Big Lake went tornado warned. Losing radar didn't help and as we approached it we got pelted with quarters to golf balls. Escaped damage somehow, but I'd rather avoid hitting the core like that. The road layout was not very helpful, but still worlds better than let's say Arkansas and Mississippi back in April. All in all, not bad considering things were looking awfully bleak around 4 p.m. The NAM was garbage and even the HRRR fired storms too far north. Outflow boundary FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Hey looks it's raining everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Hey looks it's raining everywhere. Somewhat similar to yesterday, although it looks like the atmosphere has been overturned more than one would like to see. I think if there's an area to watch it's from Midland down to just east of the Big Bend area. The RAP and HRRR clear things out and destabilize the atmosphere pretty quick. In comparison to yesterday, I think the threat is certainly a bit less impressive, but any discrete cells that can develop (perhaps on an outflow boundary from this morning's junk?) could drop some large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat is low, but non-zero. LCLs are fairly low, but SRH decreases through the afternoon. A "meh" day in terms of chasing as there probably won't be much structure to see unless you want to head way down south towards the Mexico border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Yeah perhaps. The western area is actually recovering a bit better than yesterday so far. I think we'll play somewhere near the TX/NM border and hope for the best. After chasing in that area yesterday not sure it's worth it again today esp with the highest tor risk further south in worse terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chad A Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Agree with southeast NM into texas border. Looks like agitated cu already developing west of there at the moisture convergence axis. Outflow from early morning storms enhancing an easterly component to the winds especially southeast NM into southern panhandle, southwest tx.. question is boundary level destabilization. better clearing to the south end of that axis, and visible satellite shows what looks like adequate mid to upper level winds from southwest overtaking the region based off the cirrus cloud tags coming in from the southwest. I'd play the slightly higher temps - the more easterly winds and wait for initation north and east of Guadalupe mountains. Clouds hanging on too long further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Somewhat similar to yesterday, although it looks like the atmosphere has been overturned more than one would like to see. I think if there's an area to watch it's from Midland down to just east of the Big Bend area. The RAP and HRRR clear things out and destabilize the atmosphere pretty quick. In comparison to yesterday, I think the threat is certainly a bit less impressive, but any discrete cells that can develop (perhaps on an outflow boundary from this morning's junk?) could drop some large hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat is low, but non-zero. LCLs are fairly low, but SRH decreases through the afternoon. A "meh" day in terms of chasing as there probably won't be much structure to see unless you want to head way down south towards the Mexico border. Looking at the trends I actually like the threat slightly better than yesterday. The recovery is taking place much quicker and the winds are not being as effected in the west target by morning convection. I don't know about much of a tornado threat but I think the structure potential is much better today. Plenty of shear but blah SREH. We will start in the Fort Stockton to Pecos range. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 I think the structure potential is much better today. Plenty of shear but blah SREH. We will start in the Fort Stockton to Pecos range. Sent from my iPad The near-term trends leave me cautiously optimistic. About to stop for lunch in Midland and will evaluate from there. May want to drop a bit southwest, but will have a better idea in an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 25, 2014 Share Posted May 25, 2014 Something came up for me so I can't chase today or tomorrow. Bummer after driving all the way out. I might try again Tuesday once things move closer to home. Good luck to all those still out west today! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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