nrgjeff Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Ian, that is definitely a tornado on your Twitter. Congratulations! I always feel a great sense of relief once I've booked a tornado on a chase trip. Pressure is off and now one can really enjoy their time on the Plains. Agree it is not all about tornadoes, but I definitely want to book 1-2 tornadoes if traveling. Then goto DQ and play Ice Cube singing Today was a Good Day. That hail was also awesome. Regarding herd convergence, I'm a little surprised that far up on the High Plains. Is it because Denver is a large metro? Wow! I'm eying the northern Plains after Memorial Day but I hope herd convergence is not spreading up there now. Family stuff this week has kept me out of the field, so thank you for letting us chase vicariously! And finally on thread topic: Today is probably structure, with the peaceful mind that one already booked a tornado yesterday. The Adams and Arapahoe counties northeast Colorado special is probably a good play again. Feature similar to the Palmer Divide is also along the CO/NM border, sometimes setting up supercells southeast of Pueblo. However there is less research on that. Also, high-res models seem to like the Dever Cyclone again. I don't know if we have enough speed shear, but the structure should be good. Just have to hope it does not go HP so darn early on I-25 again. Only in 2014, lol! If eying the West Texas target, one might have to go all the way to Big Bend country. Little more deep level shear is noted down there. High-res models have supercells down there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Saw a ton of chasers from OK, MO and KS yesterday. Oklahoma news stations had chasing teams out. Sent from my RM-927_nam_vzw_100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 A million+ people live within 30 minutes drive of the action here, so it wouldn't have surprised me if people took a late lunch break to go chase for an hour or two. I thought seriously about it but had too many mid-afternoon work commitments. And (deflector shields up) drivers here tend to be pretty bad anyway when compared to those schooled in the craziness of the congested East. If there are typically half a dozen accidents on I-70 between Denver and east of Aurora on a normal day, imagine what adding a bunch of chasers will do! Few storms popping in the foothills and down near Castle Rock, but moving SLOW. Pretty typical today as compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Right now in downtown Denver Sent from my RM-927_nam_vzw_100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Just passed an Extreme Tornado Tours or whatever they're called van on the side of I-70 with its wheel about 1000 feet away in the median. I bet that isn't the "extreme" that those tour-goers signed up for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Just passed an Extreme Tornado Tours or whatever they're called van on the side of I-70 with its wheel about 1000 feet away in the median. I bet that isn't the "extreme" that those tour-goers signed up for... Keep rollin rollin rollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Keep rollin rollin rollin OMG, That's too funny, where did you find this?~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 OMG, That's too funny, where did you find this? ~Sent from a device that cannot speel. Reed Timmer's Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I'd expect at least isolated severe storms near the NM/TX border into west Texas/panhandle for Saturday and Sunday. The main limiting factor that may hold back this setup is if there's a lack of destabilization from a more solid shield of precipitation. Where there are breaks and pockets of greater instability, a few storms could produce large hail and some damaging winds. I wouldn't rule out a tornado or two IF the higher end instability forecasts are realized. The 12z 4km NAM seems bullish with a line of discrete cells firing Saturday afternoon. The SPC WRF is oddly dry and is late to the game with a few cells only firing by about 00z Sunday. Both focus on west Texas. From roughly Midland south to the Mexican border, the models seem the most robust with the severe parameters. Euro pushes SBCAPE to >2000 J/kg with the SREF increasing STP values over 1 with most of the members here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I decided to go north, catch some consolation prize storms in WY/SD tomorrow and ND/SD Sunday, and then sink back south to Sioux Falls on Monday. There were just too many possible caveats to the severe weather threat in the Big Bend region to justify driving from Denver to Midland, only to have to come all the way back north after only one chase day (since I need to be at FSD Tuesday morning and we can't really pull off a 14+ hr drive Monday from MAF to FSD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 I'm on my way out to western Texas right now. I'll be spending the night in Midland and will take things from there. I'm actually in Jarrell right now as a small side stop. I'd never been and figured it was worth the small detour to come check things out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 23, 2014 Share Posted May 23, 2014 Organized Severe potential in the near-term obviously is garbage. But in other news lots of beneficial, and potentially flooding rainfall, will fall over a large portion of the drought stricken plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Tomorrow (Sat 5/24) looks promising enough for a chase along the TX/NM border, at least by this year's standards. The 18z NAM-4km indicates widespread 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE by late afternoon over the Llano Estacado and Permian Basin with veering wind profiles and regionally-impressive BL moisture. Although SRH is not forecast to be impressive by most of the NWP before dark, pattern recognition will probably get me out the door (I'd be kind of excited if this year hadn't pushed me to the point of assuming failure as the default outcome). Preliminary target is a Lubbock-Clovis-Hobbs triangle, though I'd be happy to see the most impressive storms farther N closer to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Two beautiful supercells in SE NM today. Structure out the wazoo this trip. Glad to have Brett aboard tomorrow. I never believe till he does. We are staying in Hobbs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Didn't quite make it to Midland, but I'm happy with crashing in San Angelo tonight. I'm not sure if I want to play it closer to Midland or Lubbock tomorrow, but I can hash that out tomorrow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Will take it with a grain of salt, but the 3z RAP is awfully bullish, especially from SE NM into about the Midland area and a bit further south. The high CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg are likely overdone. Bulk shear is in the range of 30-40kt for much of west Texas with some >50kt flags flying back in NM. Either way I think things will be active on either side of the NM/TX border Saturday afternoon/evening. Right now SPC is going 2/15/15 hatched (hail), but I could see that needing to be upped if near-term trends can narrow down an area tomorrow of enhanced destabilization coupled with some stronger shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 The area's just south of NM in the Permian have no cloud cover right now. Hopefully that will allow more heating and destabilization than the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 So much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 So much rain. You can always chase a good old Texas Flood event. 1981 offered a Major flood event across much of Texas during the Memorial Day Holiday period. Slow moving long wave trough with a tap to an EPAC Hurricane in a stagnant upper flow tends to spell flood across our Region. Can we thank you for ending our drought or the +PDO regime with a developing Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I'm happy to take credit. It is good news overall of course. Drought may be fully wiped out by Niño. Maybe next chase season will be a big one. Gotta think this mass of rain screwed much of the tornado potential today tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 I'm happy to take credit. It is good news overall of course. Drought may be fully wiped out by Niño. Maybe next chase season will be a big one. Gotta think this mass of rain screwed much of the tornado potential today tho. That it did. The good news is areas that sorely needed a good soaking are getting it and that bodes well for any potential drought feedback issues going into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Sitting in Midland right now. I'm thinking of going down to Monahans in a few. That outflow boundary has made all the way down here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Have to say down south is looking prime right now. HRRR initializing fairly well and shows very strong shear (70-85kt!) coinciding with >2000 J/kg CAPE. Keep a close eye on those outflow boundaries. Things could really light up later this afternoon. Good luck to all who are chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Outflow boundary better stop soon heh. Not chasing in Mexico. May need to head back into SE NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Yeah, that outflow boundary could be killer. I'm having a hard time staying in front of it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 With rain pushing east hopefully it'll stall soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Headed down 285 into TX out of NM currently. Models are getting me excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Sitting in Crane TX pretty close to the triple pt. Storms firing nicely just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 TOR Warning for Fisher county, TX along the N end of a very slowly moving bow echo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted May 24, 2014 Share Posted May 24, 2014 Sitting in Crane TX pretty close to the triple pt. Storms firing nicely just west. looks kind of messy...EDIT: never mind, looks to be a pretty nice supercell close to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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