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2014 Short Term Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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Gotta love when the SPC Forecasters change shifts... The discussion went from optimistic for Wednesday with the 06Z D2 to pretty pessimistic at the 1730Z update... Of course all the concerns are pretty legitimate. Seems like the 0600Z outlook was largely premised off of the NAM which would provide for a potentially volatile localized environment.

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3 separate supercells hundreds to thousands of miles apart, all associated with the same boundary... Pretty amazing. Relatively speaking long-lived supercells in NE Colorado, and the Nebraska panhandle... Including a tornadic supercell near Scottsbluff, NE. Then another discrete supercell just popped west of Chicago and already has hail estimated 2+ inches.

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Looks like Mark and Ian are all over that isolated, well-structured cell heading towards Torrington, WY. Once again looking forward to some great pics!

Nothing too exciting so far. Lots of cloud debris and we left the northern one initially since the other had better bases. Then it ended up outflow dominant. We are wandering along in between the two now.
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Excellent set-up should unfold today in northeast Colorado, perhaps fairly close to the Denver Metro. Fortunately the classic Denver Cyclone is just east of populated areas. One can grab a decent lunch in the 'burbs and then find a hose or tube not harming anyone just outside of town. I don't have much to add to the SPC 10%, so will get into background just a bit.

 

Many readers may already know this, but the geography adds confidence to the Denver Cyclone set-up. In addition to the north-south Rockies promoting the lee trough, the east-west Palmer Divide enhances low level shear. Mechanics are the same. Winds cross it and turn cyclonically. Palmer runs south of Denver, approximately from Colorado Springs east. Already backing surface winds will back more north of the Palmer Divide, northeast of the Denver Metro. Today we have adequate upper level winds coming out, in contrast to say mid-June. Therefore the 10% TOR probability is clearly justified.

 

Good luck. Chase safely and effectively. This is near Twistex home base. Honor their memory today.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 165
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1235 PM
UNTIL 800 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LIMON COLORADO.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

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079  

WFUS55 KBOU 211956  

TORBOU  

COC001-005-031-212030-  

/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0017.140521T1956Z-140521T2030Z/  

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO  

156 PM MDT WED MAY 21 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHWESTERN ARAPAHOE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...  

CENTRAL DENVER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...  

WESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...  

 

* UNTIL 230 PM MDT  

 

* AT 156 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER COMMERCE CITY...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF  

DENVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES  

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

DENVER...NORTHWESTERN AURORA...SOUTHERN THORNTON...EASTERN  

ARVADA...SOUTHERN WESTMINSTER...COMMERCE CITY...SOUTHEASTERN  

NORTHGLENN...BRIGHTON...EASTERN ENGLEWOOD...GREENWOOD VILLAGE...  

FEDERAL HEIGHTS...SOUTHWESTERN DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND  

BARR LAKE.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A  

VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND  

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...DENVER METRO VICINITY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...

VALID 211958Z - 212100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS OVER THE DENVER METRO AREA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE

TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND POSE A LARGE TO VERY LARGE

HAIL THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOCYCLONIC TORNADO APPEARS TO BE

INCREASING TOO.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ELY FLOW FOCUSED IN

THE DCVZ IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DENVER METRO AREA. KFTG

RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR SHOWS A FEW STORMS EXHIBITING

SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORM OVER THE DENVER CITY

LIMITS AS OF 1955Z. THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ATTRIBUTED TO THE

DCVZ AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WOULD SUGGEST

LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION WILL PROBABLY INCREASE. ADDITIONAL THREATS

WITH THE DENVER AREA ACTIVITY INCLUDE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE

NSSL-SHAVE EXPERIMENT DOCUMENTED GOLFBALL HAIL OVER SWRN DENVER

WITHIN THE PAST 30-45 MINUTES AND THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL

PROBABLY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MATURE/ORGANIZE.

..SMITH.. 05/21/2014

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That's a pretty intense supercell east of Denver... Large hail core, a very evident hook echo, observed rotating wall cloud, would be shocked if it didn't put down a large tornado at some point given how low the wall cloud is as well as pretty strong low-level flow.

EDIT: tornado in progress

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