Chinook Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The storm around Missouri's capital (Jefferson City) appears more of a high-precipitation squall than a supercell. It has a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Storm heading for Topeka is getting a really nice hook but velocity isn't seemingly showing it as tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 If those cells near Topeka are going to get something going, now's the time. Both have pretty wide open inflow so maybe one of them can spin something up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 With a lot of dynamic forcing, strong low-level shear, and good low-level lapse rates, the squall line across OK, AR, and MO might be a pretty prolific mesovortex tornado producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 There have been 81 unfiltered hail/wind reports, as of this hour, as well as regions of 3-5" of rain in Missouri and Illinois. Many of the hail reports missed the KC metro area. According to the storm report map on Iowa State's web site, there were wall clouds and funnel clouds around Jefferson City MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 The new 06z outlook for tomorrow (October 2) includes a 30% outlook for wind/hail for areas ranging from St. Louis to Dallas. I wouldn't be surprised to see 30+ wind reports tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Storm N of Memphis out ahead of the line is showing a bit of rotation and a nice hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Potentially two squall line tornadoes are right next to each other. This is at Clarendon, AR, about 45 mi from Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 DFW metro took a wallop from straight line winds... roofs torn off, Ft. Worth Stockyards wall collapsed, many without power. I've heard an anemometer reported 83 mph, and the UTA radar estimates were over that, as much as mid 90s... folded on a 38 m/s nyquist... after a while though UTA lost power and networking, and the radar feed Velocity data is folded... nearly 100 MPH off the deck maybe 1000 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 10/2 to 10/3 had 341 storm reports and 6 tornadoes. It ranks as one of the top ten active storm-report days of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Parameters are coming together for a multi day severe weather/heavy rainfall event across our Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1841 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...N TX...FAR SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 101926Z - 102100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AMIDST INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING S/SE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1010 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SW MLC ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED SW TO A 1009 MB CYCLONE OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY OF W TX. INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE HAS BEEN NEAR THE LEAD CYCLONE WITH AGITATED CU/INITIAL CBS FORMING OVER A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY. AIR MASS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AMIDST SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 80S. THE ANAFRONTAL/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT SW OF THE LEAD CYCLONE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO SUSTAINING SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NE...VEERING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /AS SAMPLED BY SRX VWP DATA/ MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND PREDOMINATELY CLUSTER MODE. THIS COULD YIELD LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO. ..GRAMS/DARROW.. 10/10/2014 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Tomorrow's threat area appears to be mostly east of us, but some models (particularly the NAM) are trying to develop some discrete storms across east Texas between 12-15Z or so. This is pretty early in the morning still, so there isn't the benefit of daytime heating, but it is quite interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 Tomorrow's threat area appears to be mostly east of us, but some models (particularly the NAM) are trying to develop some discrete storms across east Texas between 12-15Z or so. This is pretty early in the morning still, so there isn't the benefit of daytime heating, but it is quite interesting nonetheless. I've actually been looking at this potential for the past few days of supercells in the morning from the Arklatex into AR. Capping should be minimal with strong forcing from the trough enhancing development and there certainly is a sufficient amount of instability and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The 00z fire nest NAM seems to indicate some robust updrafts through about 13z, as the line moves into the Arklatex. After that is some weakening, before the line regenerates closer to the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Mod Risk tomorrow with a 10% hatched tornado for E AR, SE MO, W TN, NW MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.