The_Global_Warmer Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 How can you possibly say 2014 won't approach 2007-12. Then only show 2012 melt percentage? That is total crap analysis. You do the same thing in the sea ice thread even tho there is about 0% chance 2014 finishes above 2009. If 2014 finishes above 2008 and 2009 in GIS ice mass loss I will be beyond surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Saw this on Nevens forum: Weather station KPC_U, which located in the north easternmost corner of Greenland not far from Zachariae Isstrøm, is reporting that 16. June 2014 saw a peak temperature of 5,73 C, which happens to be the highest temperature recorded since the station begun operating in 2008. http://promice.org/WeatherArchive.html?promiceStationStationid=114&stationid=114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I think Friv's assessment of the GIS melt season to date is pretty accurate. Here is the plot of daily melt extents [link]: As we can see Greenland's melting is well beyond the 2-sigma envelope and is about double the extent for this time of year. But daily values are just weather so let's look at the monthly values. Here's the plot of monthly melting [link] Well, the 2014 montly melting is well above the 2003 - 2012 average and is tracking 2012 pretty closely. But maybe montly values are still too short, so lets look at the year-to date GIS melting: .Hmmm, still looks alarmingly like a repeat of 2012. Certainly much greater than 2013. So I"ll close with the long-term GIS mass balance record: 2013 was a mild melt season but notice that the GIS has lost about 2000 Gtons (2000 km3) os ice since 2006 to melting and calving. Speaking for myself I find that alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 We would have no idea what the peak heat rates or melt rates are for 07-12. You didn't post anything about that. Can you show us what they were? Or do you just mean the 2012 peak melt rates or whatever? If 2SD+ melt area pattern isn't that bad for GIS then please enlighten me on what is bad for GIS? This has to be one of the worst June melting periods on record. Albedo is running along record lows as well and will only get worse as we go along. This is right now, not around the corner. You can't just shuffle this under the table and say it's not bad when it's out of the 2SD range. We are seeing record warmth over the NE part of GIS where a ton of melting under 1750M happens because of the soft slope versus SE gis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 I wish you the best of luck. II can't wait to see how this plays out. I have no idea how you think you can look at 2m temp anomalies and discern the melting on GIS when the products designed for tracking GIS melt say this year is not going well so far tell a different story then what you are trying to push. I can't wait for the next albedo update since albedo has plummeted the last week. http://darksnow.org/west-greenland-melt-is-on/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 There's quite a bit more that goes into ice sheet disintegration than just surface temperature or upper air patterns. Remember there is a lot of latent heat transfer during melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Melt area continues it's ride above the 2SD mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 I doubt it will drop much over the next few days. GIS looks pretty warm for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I am not pushing anything but the actual pattern. All your posts from the beginning of the thread have been anticipating rapid melt rates akin to the worst 2007-2012 years that haven't come to pass yet. So clearly your insecurity about slower melt years like 2013 and the slower start to this year clash with your implied agenda. It's obvious if the faster melt years from 2007-2012 don't occur every year you are afraid people will lose interest in the global warming issue. And the natural variability issues with the AMO/NAO seem to really anger you which you are just going to have to live with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Noone disagrees with the pattern being more favorable this summer thus far, but that is a small snapshot in time. I guess the question one has to ask is why is the mass and albedo loss been essentially on par with 2012 this year despite a favorable pressure pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 GIS albedo updated and it's terrible. Lower than normal almost everywhere. It has plummeted along the W/SW coasts. We can see the sharp albedo drop on GIS. The snow melting layer on these images shows it reaching well into the 2000M range. On the visible image. You can see the grey bare ice with low albedo and melt lakes all over it. THen you can see a much larger region of blueish color where the fresh snow cover is melting. Remember it's not even peak melt season. GIS gets belted tomorrow. But gets taken to the woodshed on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday GIS has a shot at some record warmth. A large area is progged to be around 5-8C at 1500M. You can see on the handy topography map I threw in that NE GIS has a gentle slope below 2000M. Gonna be some big melting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The GIS seems to be having a generally normal melt season. No historic melt out as predicted by a particular poster again this year. While the melt season isn't over it sure hasn't been anything amazing. Yawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 The colder temperatures and more favorable pattern advertised by the model runs several days ago slowed the melt over the last few days. It might have slowed the melt. But the chart your looking at can't possibly tell you about that. Looks like the melt area went back to above normal versus way anomalous. It's on it's way back up. Never going below normal yet with near record low albedo over the ice sheet. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 The melt will defintely drop more later this week/weekend/next week....as we transition from a -NAO to a +NAO regime. There could actually be a significant mid-summer snowstorm for much of the ice sheet next week...we'll see how models trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Surface albedo updated. Can't wait to see the updated line graph charts for all of GIS I bet 2014 is lowest on record or close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 This pattern is terrible for the arctic, but excellent for GIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Certainly seems that way. GIS looks to be cool and cloudy through the 4th based on the latest Euro. Heat pump stays in the arctic. However, even with an ideal pattern- GIS still will have significant mass loss this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 It will probably fall today a bit. Maybe. The Northern and NE side is warm. After today it gets cooler and melt area will probably settle around normal until it warms back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It might have slowed the melt. But the chart your looking at can't possibly tell you about that. Looks like the melt area went back to above normal versus way anomalous. It's on it's way back up. Never going below normal yet with near record low albedo over the ice sheet. Sounds good. Welp...it went below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 5, 2014 Author Share Posted July 5, 2014 In spite of a recent drop in GIS melt area. Albedo is 3rd lowest on record. http://darksnow.org/2014-ice-sheet-reflectivity-is-near-record-low/ We can see the melt lakes on the Western coast where temps have been warming back up and the models show the freeze level over GIS reaching a minimum of about 1700M everyday into next week. But from time to time 5C 850s will sit over the Western GIS melt zone increasing the size and area of the melt lakes and super low albedo region. The bottom line is consistency in having melt going on to at least 1500M+ everyday GIS wide is bad and a set up for a stout ice mass loss season. Guaranteed top 5 ice mass loss season in modern human history. And potentially top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 In spite of a recent drop in GIS melt area. Albedo is 3rd lowest on record. http://darksnow.org/2014-ice-sheet-reflectivity-is-near-record-low/ We can see the melt lakes on the Western coast where temps have been warming back up and the models show the freeze level over GIS reaching a minimum of about 1700M everyday into next week. But from time to time 5C 850s will sit over the Western GIS melt zone increasing the size and area of the melt lakes and super low albedo region. The bottom line is consistency in having melt going on to at least 1500M+ everyday GIS wide is bad and a set up for a stout ice mass loss season. Guaranteed top 5 ice mass loss season in modern human history. And potentially top 3. Modern human history.... 1979 till 2014. You are correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2014 Author Share Posted July 6, 2014 After a brief respite. GIS melt area will increase substantially. Jaxa shows a large increase today over the West side of GIS and an huge increase over the S/SW area. The East central region also increased in melt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 Recent Greenland albedo drop attributed to increased impurities Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland’s darkening since 2009 M. Dumont,E. Brun,G. Picard,M. Michou,Q. Libois,J-R. Petit,M. Geyer,S. Morin& B. Josse Nature Geoscience 7,509–512 (2014) doi:10.1038/ngeo2180 Received 12 March 2014 Accepted 02 May 2014 Published online 08 June 2014 The surface energy balance and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet depends on the albedo of snow, which governs the amount of solar energy that is absorbed. The observed decline of Greenland’s albedo over the past decade1, 2, 3 has been attributed to an enhanced growth of snow grains as a result of atmospheric warming1, 2. Satellite observations show that, since 2009, albedo values even in springtime at high elevations have been lower than the 2003–2008 average. Here we show, using a numerical snow model, that the decrease in albedo cannot be attributed solely to grain growth enhancement. Instead, our analysis of remote sensing data indicates that the springtime darkening since 2009 stems from a widespread increase in the amount of light-absorbing impurities in snow, as well as in the atmosphere. We suggest that the transport of dust from snow-free areas in the Arctic that are experiencing earlier melting of seasonal snow cover4as the climate warms may be a contributing source of impurities. In our snow model simulations, a decrease in the albedo of fresh snow by 0.01 leads to a surface mass loss of 27 Gt yr−1, which could induce an acceleration of Greenland’s mass loss twice as large as over the past two decades5. Future trends in light-absorbing impurities should therefore be considered in projections of Greenland mass loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2014 Author Share Posted July 6, 2014 GIS melt area made it back to normal for a couple days. Now it's on it's way up and is going to possibly reach 60% this week. I think 50% is in the bag. We can see further increase in melt area on the Western and Southern part of GIS while the NE slightly cooled. The big changes are forthcoming. GIS gets the boot. Subject to change but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Welp...it went below normal. Since literally June 1st the melt area has been below normal for 3-4 days. Since 90% of the surface ice mass loss comes from 15% of the ice sheet. I'd say that's not good. Looks like Arther is pummeling Southern GIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Large increase in GIS melt area again today on Jaxa. Especially over the East and North. This will likely push melt area above 40% and likely out of the 2SD range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 We didn't make it to the 50-60% range on NSIDC. GIS. June albedo was 3rd lowest on record slightly behind 2011 and further behind 2012. But below 2010 which IIRC had a quick melt season start. GIS has also seen record warmth in spots. I am glad we are having another benign melt season http://polarportal.dk/en/nyheder/arkiv/nyheder/record-high-temperature-for-june-in-greenland/ http://ow.ly/i/6cKGc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 Now it's on it's way up and is going to possibly reach 60% this week. I think 50% is in the bag. The big changes are forthcoming. GIS gets the boot. I am curious to hear your reasoning why the melt did not reach 60% or even 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2014 Share Posted July 13, 2014 The slower surface melt the last two years relative to to 2007-2012 is a result of the colder pattern on both land and sea around Greenland which is probably related to the weaker AMO relative to 2007-2012. Greenland ice core evidence for spatial and temporal variability of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051241/abstract 6] The regionally and temporally resolved spectral analysis of six Arctic annual ice core δ18O time series points towards a considerable natural spatial and temporal variability of the Greenland climate and one of its driving forces the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The most dominant observed quasi-periodicity is that of ∼20 years followed by a longer multidecadal band between 45 and 65 years. The observed intermittency of these modes over the last 4000 years supports the view that these are internal ocean-atmosphere modes, with little or no external forcing. The Little Ice Age was dominated by a ∼20 year AMO cycle with no other decadal or multidecadal variability above the noise level. During the preceding Medieval Warm Period the 20 year cycle was replaced by a longer scale cycle centered near a period of 43 years and an additional ∼11.5 year periodicity. [17] The observed large temporal variability of the AMO as captured by the ice core records points to the difficult task of capturing and forecasting these pronounced multidecadal quasi-oscillations in global and regional Arctic climate models for assessing future Arctic climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2014 Author Share Posted July 13, 2014 Well I'd say there is a progressive pattern here if 2014 is worse than 07, 08, 09, 10, 13 and is only better then two more extreme torching years in spite of a favorable Summer of 2013. Albedo continues to drop over the entire ice sheet. No one said every year would be worse than the one before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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