Yellow Evan Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 Except the SSTs/OHC still drop off dramatically north of there. They always do. That's why I only think there's a 2% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 The lemon is now a mandarin. GFS has shifted west back time and is now on par with the rest of the guidance, though it strill has as a slight threat to Baja California Sur and bringing rains to CA in 11days. Conditions here look very very good. As it is moving WNW to NW parallel to the coast, yet another major is possible. Yes, another. 3 majors before July 15? Possible. Edit: 18z GFS shows this. Wow, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 ^ That secondary system that forms next to the main (initial) low in two and a half days is likely convective feedback due to the parametrization of the simplified cumulus scheme affecting the atmospheric heating profile. Philippe (a red-tagger who should certainly feel free to add to/correct my explanation here) explains this phenomenon elsewhere: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062518/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html We have to watch though, because global models are known to spin up spurious vorticity that isn't realistic via the simplifed cummulus scheme modifying the heating profile of the atmosphere. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42483-atlantic-tropical-action-2014/page-8#entry2984987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 ^ That secondary system that forms next to the main (initial) low in two and a half days is likely convective feedback due to the parametrization of the simplified cumulus scheme affecting the atmospheric heating profile. Philippe (a red-tagger who should certainly feel free to add to/correct my explanation here) explains this phenomenon elsewhere: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42483-atlantic-tropical-action-2014/page-8#entry2984987 I had a feeling it was convection feedback (I don't expect it to verify), but it's still fun nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 That GFS forecast is one for the ages... I don't buy it because you see how the vorticity pretty much develops out of the same bed of vorticity associated with 96E. However binary interaction occurrences such as this have happened in the EPAC before... (remember Gil and Henriette 2000?) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2001/epac/sep.html What the GFS is telling us is that the EPAC is very convectively active as a result of the increased SSTs and favorable MJO circulation which is favoring a diffluent upper atmosphere. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/westHem_analyses.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 GFS is exemplifying the Fujiwhara Effect. Would be pretty amazing to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 That GFS forecast is one for the ages... I don't buy it because you see how the vorticity pretty much develops out of the same bed of vorticity associated with 96E. However binary interaction occurrences such as this have happened in the EPAC before... (remember Gil and Henriette 2000?) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2001/epac/sep.html What the GFS is telling us is that the EPAC is very convectively active as a result of the increased SSTs and favorable MJO circulation which is favoring a diffluent upper atmosphere. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/westHem_analyses.html Of course I don't buy it. But yeah, MJO is here, and will likely cause a burst in activity in the next week or so. As for these kind of interactions, once and a while, they will happen. Lidia and Max 05 is another example, so is Jova and Irwin in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 A lot of fruit out there today. A cherry and a lemon currently, with 96E a cherry nearly a TD IMO. Edit: GFS back on board with 2 maybe 3 systems within 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The low near 10°N 95°W will almost certainly be a new INVEST by tomorrow. The ECMWF, which has the best handle on the initialization, shows steady development into a TS in two days, then rather rapid intensification a (major?) hurricane in five days. The GFS is much less aggressive, but I place more weight on the ECMWF, given its appropriate handling of the monsoonal trough in the region. As 96E is broader, it will likely take more time to develop than the possible new INVEST will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 The low near 10°N 95°W will almost certainly be a new INVEST by tomorrow. The ECMWF, which has the best handle on the initialization, shows steady development into a TS in two days, then rather rapid intensification a (major?) hurricane in five days. The GFS is much less aggressive, but I place more weight on the ECMWF, given its appropriate handling of the monsoonal trough in the region. Where does the ECMWF take it? The GFS brings it near Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Where does the ECMWF take it? The GFS brings it near Baja. The ECMWF keeps it well offshore through the end of the forecast period. Such a track looks reasonable given the tendency of the GFS to overdo weaknesses/underdo ridging to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Lemon now a mandarin and will likely be invets'd. 96E up to 90% and is about to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Lemon now a mandarin and will likely be invets'd. 96E up to 90% and is about to pop. We have 97E for the mandarin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 97E likely has the greatest potential for developing into a significant cyclone as it remains just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and benefits from another wind gap event near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Also the HWRF is rather suggestive of a this system nearing the Cabo San Lucas area and the recent upgrade of the HWRF has been performing much better than past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 97E likely has the greatest potential for developing into a significant cyclone as it remains just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and benefits from another wind gap event near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Also the HWRF is rather suggestive of a this system nearing the Cabo San Lucas area and the recent upgrade of the HWRF has been performing much better than past years. My guess is that 96E becomes the stronger storm. It's already much farther ahead of 97E in terms of structural and convective appearance. Its resultant outflow should act to keep shear moderate to high over 97E for the next few days, although we might see some development thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 96E is now 04E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 97E down to a lemon again. Still at 50% within 5 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 04E looks okay IMO. There's sufficient convection, so it's probs around 35 knts. Well defined LLC but organization-wise not the best. Reminds me of Nadine when it first formed for the first time around. ATCF makes it 35 knts. Meanwhile, 97E is a mandarin again at 50/60. According to the NHC, only a small increase in organization will result in a TD. It looks halfway decent IMO. In the long run, deepening is possible, but in the short-term, it will be restricted by Douglas. I would not rule out a hurricane. The question here is will it impact land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Re: 97E 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressurelocated about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico,continue to show signs of organization. Although satellite dataindicate that this system is producing winds to tropical stormforce, it lacks a closed circulation at this time. Upper-levelwinds are not particularly conducive for additional development, butonly a slight increase in organization could result in the formationof a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the systemmoves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Re: 97E 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to show signs of organization. Although satellite data indicate that this system is producing winds to tropical storm force, it lacks a closed circulation at this time. Upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, but only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent. As suspected, say hello to Elida ...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 Douglas 35 knts and struggling while Elida 45 knts and near MX. TS warnings up. Neither expected to deepen much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Douglas up to 40 knts while Elida is bringing heavy rains to MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 Douglas is still out there, BTW. 35 knts. And we have lemon that is suppose to be our first EDR storm of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Two lemons right now. One is 98E one has no name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Two lemons right now. One is 98E one has no name. Haha the one that wasn't even an invest earlier (99E) is now TS Fausto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 7, 2014 Author Share Posted July 7, 2014 Yep. And 98E is still a lemon. Anyway, Fausto has decent potential but ITCZ storms are very wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 8, 2014 Author Share Posted July 8, 2014 Fausto a dud TS in the middle of nowhere. This season is starting to annoy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 8, 2014 Share Posted July 8, 2014 Fausto a dud TS in the middle of nowhere. This season is starting to annoy me. Wow. I was sure this post would have been deleted by now. Lets see...two systems that underwent explosive intensification to near C5 and one of the highest ACE totals to date...oh and its only July 8th? The East Pacific will obviously dominate the Atlantic in every way come October. I would even bet a hefty amount of money that Josh gets his hands on at least one red-meat TC somewhere along the Mexican coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Fausto a dud TS in the middle of nowhere. This season is starting to annoy me. Still better than anything the Atlantic has produced in like... forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 9, 2014 Author Share Posted July 9, 2014 Wow. I was sure this post would have been deleted by now. Lets see...two systems that underwent explosive intensification to near C5 and one of the highest ACE totals to date...oh and its only July 8th? The East Pacific will obviously dominate the Atlantic in every way come October. I would even bet a hefty amount of money that Josh gets his hands on at least one red-meat TC somewhere along the Mexican coast. Yea, but the past three storms have underperformed. Regarding the late season, there is a strong possibility of at least a decent Cat 2 landfall. But for abotu 6 more weeks, we're stuck with ITCZ crap in the EDR. Unless we can get one of those majors that make it to the CPAC. I guess the first three storms of the seaosn raised my hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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