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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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The lemon is now a mandarin. GFS has shifted west back time and is now on par with the rest of the guidance, though it strill has as a slight threat to Baja California Sur and bringing rains to CA in 11days.  Conditions here look very very good. As it is moving WNW to NW parallel to the coast, yet another major is possible. Yes, another. 3 majors before July 15? Possible.

 

Edit: 18z GFS shows this. Wow, just wow.

 

28quj5u.jpg

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^ That secondary system that forms next to the main (initial) low in two and a half days is likely convective feedback due to the parametrization of the simplified cumulus scheme affecting the atmospheric heating profile. Philippe (a red-tagger who should certainly feel free to add to/correct my explanation here) explains this phenomenon elsewhere:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014062518/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

 

We have to watch though, because global models are known to spin up spurious vorticity that isn't realistic via the simplifed cummulus scheme modifying the heating profile of the atmosphere.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42483-atlantic-tropical-action-2014/page-8#entry2984987

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^ That secondary system that forms next to the main (initial) low in two and a half days is likely convective feedback due to the parametrization of the simplified cumulus scheme affecting the atmospheric heating profile. Philippe (a red-tagger who should certainly feel free to add to/correct my explanation here) explains this phenomenon elsewhere:

 

 

 

I had a feeling it was convection feedback (I don't expect it to verify), but it's still fun nevertheless.

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That GFS forecast is one for the ages... I don't buy it because you see how the vorticity pretty much develops out of the same bed of vorticity associated with 96E.

 

However binary interaction occurrences such as this have happened in the EPAC before... (remember Gil and Henriette 2000?) 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2001/epac/sep.html

 

What the GFS is telling us is that the EPAC is very convectively active as a result of the increased SSTs and favorable MJO circulation which is favoring a diffluent upper atmosphere.

 

gfs_ir_epac_31.png

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/westHem_analyses.html

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That GFS forecast is one for the ages... I don't buy it because you see how the vorticity pretty much develops out of the same bed of vorticity associated with 96E.

 

However binary interaction occurrences such as this have happened in the EPAC before... (remember Gil and Henriette 2000?) 

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/maps/gridsat/2001/epac/sep.html

 

What the GFS is telling us is that the EPAC is very convectively active as a result of the increased SSTs and favorable MJO circulation which is favoring a diffluent upper atmosphere.

 

gfs_ir_epac_31.png

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/waves/westHem_analyses.html

 

Of course I don't buy it. But yeah, MJO is here, and will likely cause a burst in activity in the next week or so. 

 

As for these kind of interactions, once and a while, they will happen. Lidia and Max 05 is another example, so is Jova and Irwin in 2011.

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The low near 10°N 95°W will almost certainly be a new INVEST by tomorrow. The ECMWF, which has the best handle on the initialization, shows steady development into a TS in two days, then rather rapid intensification a (major?) hurricane in five days. The GFS is much less aggressive, but I place more weight on the ECMWF, given its appropriate handling of the monsoonal trough in the region. As 96E is broader, it will likely take more time to develop than the possible new INVEST will.

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The low near 10°N 95°W will almost certainly be a new INVEST by tomorrow. The ECMWF, which has the best handle on the initialization, shows steady development into a TS in two days, then rather rapid intensification a (major?) hurricane in five days. The GFS is much less aggressive, but I place more weight on the ECMWF, given its appropriate handling of the monsoonal trough in the region.

 

Where does the ECMWF take it? The GFS brings it near Baja.

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97E likely has the greatest potential for developing into a significant cyclone as it remains just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and benefits from another wind gap event near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Also the HWRF is rather suggestive of a this system nearing the Cabo San Lucas area and the recent upgrade of the HWRF has been performing much better than past years.

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97E likely has the greatest potential for developing into a significant cyclone as it remains just offshore of the Pacific Coast of Mexico and benefits from another wind gap event near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Also the HWRF is rather suggestive of a this system nearing the Cabo San Lucas area and the recent upgrade of the HWRF has been performing much better than past years.

My guess is that 96E becomes the stronger storm. It's already much farther ahead of 97E in terms of structural and convective appearance. Its resultant outflow should act to keep shear moderate to high over 97E for the next few days, although we might see some development thereafter.

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04E looks okay IMO. There's sufficient convection, so it's probs around 35 knts. Well defined LLC but organization-wise not the best. Reminds me of Nadine when it first formed for the first time around.

 

ATCF makes it 35 knts.

 

Meanwhile, 97E is a mandarin again at 50/60. According to the NHC, only a small increase in organization will result in a TD. It looks halfway decent IMO. In the long run, deepening is possible, but in the short-term, it will be restricted by Douglas. I would not rule out a hurricane. The question here is will it impact land?

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Re: 97E

 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico,
continue to show signs of organization. Although satellite data
indicate that this system is producing winds to tropical storm
force, it lacks a closed circulation at this time. Upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, but
only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation
of a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the system
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

 

:yikes:  :huh:

 

WMBas64.png

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Re: 97E

 

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure

located about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico,

continue to show signs of organization. Although satellite data

indicate that this system is producing winds to tropical storm

force, it lacks a closed circulation at this time. Upper-level

winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, but

only a slight increase in organization could result in the formation

of a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while the system

moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

 

:yikes:  :huh:

 

As suspected, say hello to Elida

 

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

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Fausto a dud TS in the middle of nowhere. This season is starting to annoy me.

 

Wow. I was sure this post would have been deleted by now. 

 

Lets see...two systems that underwent explosive intensification to near C5 and one of the highest ACE totals to date...oh and its only July 8th?

 

The East Pacific will obviously dominate the Atlantic in every way come October. I would even bet a hefty amount of money that Josh gets his hands on at least one red-meat TC somewhere along the Mexican coast. 

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Wow. I was sure this post would have been deleted by now. 

 

Lets see...two systems that underwent explosive intensification to near C5 and one of the highest ACE totals to date...oh and its only July 8th?

 

The East Pacific will obviously dominate the Atlantic in every way come October. I would even bet a hefty amount of money that Josh gets his hands on at least one red-meat TC somewhere along the Mexican coast. 

 

Yea, but the past three storms have underperformed.

 

Regarding the late season, there is a strong possibility of at least a decent Cat 2 landfall. But for abotu 6 more weeks, we're stuck with ITCZ crap in the EDR. Unless we can get one of those majors that make it to the CPAC. I guess the first three storms of the seaosn raised my hopes.

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