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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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This could be one of those situations where the ECMWF is behind on the convective organization of TD-2E and the more developed GFS solution appears to be more valid. The GFS is suggesting landfall in about 36 hours, which is much faster than the NHC forecast. While there is a mid-level ridge well to the north in Mexico, its displaced too far north of TD-2E to really feel the effects. The system is being steered more by the monsoon-trough which has developed over the Gulf of Mexico and EPAC. 

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BORIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

...BORIS POISES A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE RISK FOR
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 94.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SALINA CRUZ MEXICO TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST.  BORIS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BORIS SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

PUERTO CHIAPAS MEXICO HAS ALREADY REPORTED 3.78 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
BORIS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE REACHING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...BORIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN
GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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The southwestern coastline of Mexico might need to stay on alert, with both the 12z HWRF and ECMWF indicating the development of a hurricane from what appears to be a preexisting area of low pressure within the monsoon trough (which is forecast on the 18z surface analysis to detach). The GFS isn't as optimistic, but shows a well-defined area of vorticity passing just offshore nonetheless.

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The system I mentioned above is now a lemon for the 48hr period and a mandarin for the 120hr period. The NHC just designated it as Invest 94E.

 

The GFS isn't too optimistic, showing a midgrade tropical storm. However, the ECMWF and HWRF make this a 973mb and 970mb hurricane, respectively.

 

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 7 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico.  Although shower and thunderstorm activity is
poorly organized at this time, slow development of this system is
possible during the next several days as the low
drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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Yesterday, models were much more aggressive, with the HWRF, GFS, and Euro all showing fairly intense systems. 

 

Euro and GFS show weak TS's, but the CMC is a little more aggressive now showing a borderline hurricane. This probably should form; shear looks okay, SST's are fairly warm, and dry air, while a little is getting ingested, does not become a major issue until we hit the subtropical jet north of 20N. I hate to say this, but ill bring up 2013. Sometimes the models have an equatorword bias (paralytically the Euro), and they bust. This is what IMO happened in 2013, and the same reason why almost all the storm were weak; they were moving too quickly and due to a northern ITCZ, heading NW rather than W.

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As Mike Ventrice pointed out on Twitter, the passage of a strong CCKW might aid in formation/rapid intensification of the system. I don't buy into these recent model runs which keep the system very weak.

 

I also second what Yellow Evan said about the system looking better organized this evening. It's still being affected by some northerly shear from the anticyclone to its northwest, but convection is more concise--suggesting a more concise center of circulation.
 

 

BJDQAUF.png

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With TAFB at T2.5/35kt and SAB at T1.5/25kt, NHC will probably start off at 30kt, but I agree that it's probably already a tropical storm, possibly on its way to hurricane intensity at peak.

 

Outflow looks good in all directions but the northwest, where there's still some light to moderate shear being inflicted. That spiral band to the west is impressive.

 

84DenkR.gif

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Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly

in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images

indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet

juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level

circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry

slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in

visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a

result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for

the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water

and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less

than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air

are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity

forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.

 
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 102.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

As an aside, why did the discussion indicate that the 35-kt intensity was based only on a DVORAK classifcation, rather than a blend of satellite estimates? Normally the NHC looks at all data, not just a single data point, when analyzing TC intensities.

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Cristina is one of those situations that if an inner core becomes established, like what appears to be occuring today, it could rapidly intensify. The storm has become vertically stacked and all that it needs to do now is mix out the dry air that got into the circulation last night. The dry air surrounding the storm shouldn't be an issue as long as the shear remains low. 

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Christina has shaken off the northerly shear that developed when storms formed inland last night. There may be some potential for RI and I would not be surprised to see a hurricane within the next 12 hours or so.

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I love the way the hot tower wraps around the COC towards the end of the loop. Cristina should be a hurricane in no time, if not already.

 

tzGejs4.gif

 

 

Great animation.  The IR presentation got better in a hurry during the heat of the day.  Seems like that dry slot is basically gone now.

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Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO.

 

Dry air enter the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it's Cristina's way of keeping it out.

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTINA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 104.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

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