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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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There's also Tico 83 to deal with as IIIRC, that was 115 knts at landfall. While many keyt 70s and 80s hits have no known pressure, I will say that assuming your 1959 cane landfall pressure of 953 mbar stands, you can say that you have chased the stronger hurricane landfall by mbar on record (Odile, 930 mbar operationally, likely closer to 940).

 

Ha!  I didn't even think of that. B)

 

My pressure in ODILE's eye was 943 mb. We were a few miles from the center of the eye, and there was definitely some gradient in the eye (1-2 mb/n mi), so I think a landfall pressure around 938 mb would make sense, based on my data alone.  (But I am sure the NHC has other factors and data aside from mine.)  Here's a link to my report, in case you didn't see it:  http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/06-october-2014.html

 

Re: TICO... My research has it at 110 kt, but hey, that's close to your estimate. Maybe we'll tackle that one next, since it's an important landfall (was near Mazatlan).

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 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS boomerangs it to near that area early on 11/4. At the very least, the last four runs of the GFS have shown a similar hit for late 10/3-early 10/4 fwiw. I maintain that climo is supportive since its peak ends only a few days prior to 11/3-4 and we're supposedly going into a weak Nino.

 For folks not recalling this, we went down this road in 2012 but this time we've had support from the Euro on a good number of runs, including the last few. In 2012, there was zero Euro support and the Euro ended up being correct.

 

OTOH, the 12Z Euro is back to stalling it offshore and then weakening it. It stalls as an upper high forms over MX and blocks it.

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Ha!  I didn't even think of that. B)

 

My pressure in ODILE's eye was 943 mb. We were a few miles from the center of the eye, and there was definitely some gradient in the eye (1-2 mb/n mi), so I think a landfall pressure around 938 mb would make sense, based on my data alone.  (But I am sure the NHC has other factors and data aside from mine.)  Here's a link to my report, in case you didn't see it:  http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/06-october-2014.html

 

Re: TICO... My research has it at 110 kt, but hey, that's close to your estimate. Maybe we'll tackle that one next, since it's an important landfall (was near Mazatlan).

 

As for Tico, HURDAT has it at 110 knts. Not 115. My bad.

 

Operationally, the pressure for Odile

 

Kinda gettin' excited about VANCE.... I'm sensing a cool Last Supper...

 

It hasn't even formed yet, and I'm starting to think dry air may hold it in check for a while. We don't have CCKW support like what we've had for all the other majors this season. But shear and SST's are perfect.

at landfall was 930 mbar. I'd go with 936mbar ish for pressure at landfall. But estimating landfall intensities is not my strength.

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As for Tico, HURDAT has it at 110 knts. Not 115. My bad.

 

Operationally, the pressure for Odile

 

 

It hasn't even formed yet, and I'm starting to think dry air may hold it in check for a while. We don't have CCKW support like what we've had for all the other majors this season. But shear and SST's are perfect.

at landfall was 930 mbar. I'd go with 936mbar ish for pressure at landfall. But estimating landfall intensities is not my strength.

 

Yeah, operationally ODILE was 930 mb, but I feel that might be a little low. Your value or mine make sense, I think.

 

Still excited about 93E. An informed source tells me the future for this could get very interestin'.  We'll see with the first advisory.

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Hey, guys--

 

Re: the EPAC's landfall history... I meant to confirm that, yes, when I was referring to the only two known November hurricane landfalls, I was talking about TARA 1961 and RICK 1997. I should clarify that I limit my comments about statistics, climatology, and records to the HURDAT era-- which for the NATL is 1851-present and for the EPAC is 1949-present.

 

That having been said... GaWx, thanks for the heads-up Re: those other Nov landfalls from the 19th century. Cool stuff. Gonna research those.

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Hey, guys--

 

Re: the EPAC's landfall history... I meant to confirm that, yes, when I was referring to the only two known November hurricane landfalls, I was talking about TARA 1961 and RICK 1997. I should clarify that I limit my comments about statistics, climatology, and records to the HURDAT era-- which for the NATL is 1851-present and for the EPAC is 1949-present.

 

That having been said... GaWx, thanks for the heads-up Re: those other Nov landfalls from the 19th century. Cool stuff. Gonna research those.

 

Josh,

 You're welcome. Well, guess what..the wishy washy Euro is back on your side. It is a hit on 11/4.

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Josh,

 You're welcome. Well, guess what..the wishy washy Euro is back on your side. It is a hit on 11/4.

 

:wub:

 

It's cool to have a possible chase subject to track this late in the season. This has been an epic year for the EPAC, so it would be fitting for some weird landfall event to violate climatology. Even if this thing's only going to come ashore as a Cat 1, I'll probably go for it, since it's in my backyard and I'm just itching for some more chase action before the season ends. A 'cane is a 'cane-- I dig 'em all-- even the Cat 1s.

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Track looks good and if the slower development continues, that dry air to its N may become less of an issue as moisture moves in from the W with convective activity SE of Hawaii. Nice way to end the chase season in a very active Eastern Pacific season.

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Track looks good and if the slower development continues, that dry air to its N may become less of an issue as moisture moves in from the W with convective activity SE of Hawaii. Nice way to end the chase season in a very active Eastern Pacific season.

 

Wow, yeah. I have to say, from a chaserdude standpoint, that's a pretty hawt track-- an accelerating recurve into a large landmass-- especially after the hell I've been through this year with islands, peninsula tips, etc.  I'm just over the whole island/peninsula thing.

 

As GaWx has pointed out, very-early Nov is still inside the window decent EPAC landfall climo.

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It looks like Rick '09 track and collapse after recurve wise. The incoming trough it's pretty strong, and decouples the cyclone before landfall in both models.

 

I'm thinking the same thing. For a hurricane to make it to MX at a decent strength the track is usu closer to the coast. Such a wide turn usually means the cyclone weakens dramatically before landfall.

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It looks like Rick '09 track and collapse after recurve wise. The incoming trough it's pretty strong, and decouples the cyclone before landfall in both models.

 

 

I'm thinking the same thing. For a hurricane to make it to MX at a decent strength the track is usu closer to the coast. Such a wide turn usually means the cyclone weakens dramatically before landfall.

 

I agree.  This one doesn't have much chance of making a strong landfall unless trough interaction occurs at just the right time.  As it stands now, unfavorable interaction will shear the storm apart and advect dry air right into the core.  Something more favorable, along the lines of say Wilma's (2005) recurvature in which coupling of the outflow jet to a mid-latitude jet without destroying the TC core is perhaps within the realm of possibilities, but a heavily unfavored solution at the moment.

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Wide curve late in the season doesn't necessarily mean weak landfall. KENNA 2002 went all the way out to ~109W before turning and coming ashore as a Cat 4. I'm not making predictions about this, just saying nothing's written in stone-- there are no rules.

 

Weird the way everyone floods into the  discussion to pile on about how lame it is. It was also interesting a few days ago when the models showed a big landfall. But maybe decoupling is sexier to talk about...?

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Wide curve late in the season doesn't necessarily mean weak landfall. KENNA 2002 went all the way out to ~109W before turning and coming ashore as a Cat 4. I'm not making predictions about this, just saying nothing's written in stone-- there are no rules.

 

Weird the way everyone floods into the  discussion to pile on about how lame it is. It was also interesting a few days ago when the models showed a big landfall. But maybe decoupling is sexier to talk about...?

 

I was skeptical of the big landfall scenario from the get-go, so I thought I'd wait a bit to see how the situation evolved.  Plus it was fun watching you weenie out.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

The depression has become a little better organized with a more
prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,
recent microwave images show that the center remains on the
southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that
southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression.  Although
the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity
estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will
conservatively remain 30 kt.

Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and
dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for
the next day or two.  As a result, the latest model guidance does
not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the
trend of showing only slow intensification.  After that time, the
global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an
increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more
significant strengthening at longer ranges.  The NHC forecast is
closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model
consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.
Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional
strengthening after that time.

The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the
previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,
leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.
The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and
southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge
builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should
cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward
in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches
the Baja California peninsula.  The official NHC forecast is a
little faster than the consensus after accounting for the
unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the
previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



 

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Vance is well on its way to becoming the 9th major hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season. This would put 2014 solely in first place for the highest number of major hurricanes on record, surpassing 1992's 8 majors. If we combine the East Pacific and Central Pacific, this would be the 10th major hurricane of the season--tying 1992.

 

0z Best Track was 90kt.

 

fNMpGHX.gif

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Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014

0300 UTC MON NOV 03 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 5 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.

50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 109.6W AT 03/0300Z

AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA

NNNN

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