E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

[HurricaneJosh]

ok, that's cool

 

OK, it must be if you'd actually admit that about my work.

[The Dude]

Thought y'all might enjoy this, from my Hurricane ODILE chase—the most wild of my career aside from Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

 

After the calm eye had cleared Cabo San Lucas, just minutes into the cyclone’s backside, our hotel lobby suddenly exploded into flying glass, furniture, and wreckage. Our hotel was awesome enough to send us the surveillance video! The first shot shows my cameraman, Steve; the second shows me. You can laugh at our shocked reactions—I look like Chicken Little trying to shield my eyes from flying glass —but notice that the first thing we both do is grab our cameras—like good chaserdudes.  Each time I replay these videos, I notice cool new details: Steve’s computer blowing away, a flying chair, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle, a large door launching from the hotel entrance like a missile…

 

P.S. iCyclone’s official ODILE video is coming soon—but in the meantime, enjoy this deep-fried appetizer. 

 

 

Wow.  You can tell you were born to chase.  It took all of a second for you grab the camera and start filming.  Glad you guys made it through (relatively) unharmed.  Looking forward to the full video.

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow.  You can tell you were born to chase.  It took all of a second for you grab the camera and start filming.  Glad you guys made it through (relatively) unharmed.  Looking forward to the full video.

 

Hey, thanks, Scott!  Yeah, it was weird-- I didn't even think-- it was a reflex action to grab the cam, even though I was kinda freaked out-- so I think you're right!

 

Haven't talked with you forever. Hope all's well.

[Yellow Evan]

Well, Josh, if you're lucky (and MX is unlucky), you'll have another chase subject in 8 days. The GFS and the Euro try to span up our mandarin (93E) into a hurricane as it nears the MX coast in the 8-10 time frame. Timing very similar to the 1959 MX hurricane. which had similar SST profiles to this year.

[GaWx]

Well, Josh, if you're lucky (and MX is unlucky), you'll have another chase subject in 8 days. The GFS and the Euro try to span up our mandarin (93E) into a hurricane as it nears the MX coast in the 8-10 time frame. Timing very similar to the 1959 MX hurricane. which had similar SST profiles to this year.

Very interesting. As Josh's list as well my research for before 1950 major MX hits have shown, late Oct to very early Nov. has actually been the most concentrated period for major H hits on the Pacific side of MX. El Niño seems to increase that potential somewhat. In 2012, the GFS teased us with many runs in a row showing a classic late Oct. perpendicular hit while the Euro had nothing. It turned out to be nothing. This time, the Euro has had the threat for at least two runs. If I were Josh, I'd follow this potential threat as long as the Euro, especially, has it.

[Yellow Evan]

Very interesting. As Josh's list as well my research for before 1950 major MX hits have shown, late Oct to very early Nov. has actually been the most concentrated period for major H hits on the Pacific side of MX. El Niño seems to increase that potential somewhat. In 2012, the GFS teased us with many runs in a row showing a classic late Oct. perpendicular hit while the Euro had nothing. It turned out to be nothing. This time, the Euro has had the threat for at least two runs. If I were Josh, I'd follow this potential threat as long as the Euro, especially, has it.

 

He's been talking about on Facebook with his pals there. He doesn't think its likely since there's only been 2 November hurricane landfalls. It's best to throw out climo, and focus on what the conditions are showing. Wind shear is moderate  now but forecast to become low, and SST's are very warm. I'd give it a high likelhood at there being a MX hurricane landfall within the next tow weeks.

 

FTR, GFS develops a 975mbar hurricane near MX by day 16 as well.

[HurricaneJosh]

He's been talking about on Facebook with his pals there. He doesn't think its likely since there's only been 2 November hurricane landfalls. It's best to throw out climo, and focus on what the conditions are showing. Wind shear is moderate  now but forecast to become low, and SST's are very warm. I'd give it a high likelhood at there being a MX hurricane landfall within the next tow weeks.

 

FTR, GFS develops a 975mbar hurricane near MX by day 16 as well.

 

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

[GaWx]

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

 

Josh,

 Don't forget about these:

(though I see that two Nov. hits were noted..I'm not sure if these two Nov. 1st hits are the ones)

 

 I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'" 

 

 Recent GFS/Euro runs have suggested a threat for ~11/4-5. So, that is a little later than 11/1, but still pretty close. I'd consider climo to actually still be rather supportive for 11/4-5 since it is only a week or so later than the peak, only 3-4 days later than the two big 11/1 hits, and we're very close to being in El Nino. Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits. Fwiw, the new (12Z) Euro is not nearly as impressive as it stalls it and weakens it well offshore 11/4-5. However, the important thing at this early stage is that it still has it.

 

 By the way, we will be able to add Odile as another major EPAC H hitting MX in an oncoming El Nino season assuming we ever finally get the official Nino. The only season since 1949 with two major hits was 1976, a weak Nino fwiw.

 

EDITED

[Srain]

Nino is beginning to show its hand via the ensemble and operational guidance with a deep Western trough in the medium range. I would not be surprised to see a landfalling cyclone potential during the first week of November. In fact HGX made mention this morning of the potential and a possible heavy rainfall event from the remnants across Texas if it happens. We will see.

[Yellow Evan]

Hold on-- I wasn't making a forecast, more just pointing out climo as a cautionary note. It is very interesting to me that the last week of Oct is climatologically hawt whereas the first week of November is climatologically nawt-- there's this harsh shut off.

 

But I agree, the actual, on-the-ground pattern matters more-- and, honestly, I'm very excited at the prospect of a chase out of this.  Like you, I've noticed the 1959 parallels-- which is funny, given that Andrew Hagen, Jorge, and I are currently reanalyzing 1959.  (Teaser: It was obviously a very severe hurricane, but we're having trouble finding evidence to support Cat 5. But no verdict yet.)

 

I agree 1959 was not a Cat 5 at landfall. There was a 135 knt+ wind report at Manzaillio a bit W that I don't consider reliable. The good news for you is that unlike Odile, when you had to rush to get in time, you have days to monitor it. In this part of the world, there usually is less flip flopping, and once this becomes a hurricane, the models don't change as much.

 

 

Josh,

 Don't forget about these:

(though I see that two Nov. hits were noted..I'm not sure if these two Nov. 1st hits are the ones)

 

 I've found per Wiki three sig. hurricanes (any of which could have been a major at landfall) during the 1800's hitting between 10/27 and 11/1 on the MX coast anywhere from Mazatian to Manzanillo:

Nov. 1, 1839: Mazatlan, Sinaloa

Nov. 1, 1840: San Blas, Nayarit

Oct. 27, 1881: Manzanillo, Colima; 950 mb/110 knots..so this was a major; Per Wiki, 'This hurricane totally destroyed the city.'" 

 

 Recent GFS/Euro runs have suggested a threat for ~11/4-5. So, that is a little later than 11/1, but still pretty close. I'd consider climo to actually still be rather supportive for 11/4-5 since it is only a week or so later than the peak, only 3-4 days later than the two big 11/1 hits, and we're very close to being in El Nino. Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits. Fwiw, the new (12Z) Euro is not nearly as impressive as it stalls it and weakens it well offshore 11/4-5. However, the important thing at this early stage is that it still has it.

 

He said on FB two hits since 1949. If I had to make a guess, there were Rick 97 and Tara 61. And yea, there were a few in the 1800's that were strong hits around November 1.

 

Regarding the 12z Euro, just something I've noticed with the Euro in this part of the world that it tends to show a strong hurricane for a run or two in a row, before backing off. Now if the GFS starting really backing off, I'd say the odds of this happening are diminished.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we have a war going on. Euro keeps this offshore as a high builds in, while the GFS has this hitting MX around ~975 mbar.

[GaWx]

Looks like we have a war going on. Euro keeps this offshore as a high builds in, while the GFS has this hitting MX around ~975 mbar.

After how horribly the GFS did in late October two years ago in that region while the Euro did well, I'm going to lean heavily toward the Euro at least for now.

[Srain]

After how horribly the GFS did in late October two years ago in that region while the Euro did well, I'm going to lean heavily toward the Euro at least for now.

I would not completely discount the GFS solution. The 10/27 00Z Euro mean is suggesting a rather deep trough developing across the West and as mentioned yesterday, climatology may be a bit less of an issue as we are transitioning to a weak El Nino pattern.

 

[GaWx]

Steve,

I'm not completely discounting the GFS but I'm leaning to the Euro while they have very different solutions. Regarding the climo of major MX hits from the Pacific, I actually think that the highest concentration having been late Oct. til 11/1 is supportive rather than the opposite, especially with a weak Niño likely starting. A projected hit of ~11/3-5 is close enough to that high concentration period as far as I'm concerned for climo to be supportive.

[Srain]

93E looks well on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone, if it is a TD already. The 12Z guidance is in better agreement with a potential land falling cyclone along the W Coast of Mexico in the next 6-9 days.

 

[Yellow Evan]

After how horribly the GFS did in late October two years ago in that region while the Euro did well, I'm going to lean heavily toward the Euro at least for now.

 

Well, the 12z Euro brought 93E into the GOC to be fair.

[GaWx]

Well, the 12z Euro brought 93E into the GOC to be fair.

 

 Indeed. Fwiw, the 18Z GFS shows a threat, too.

[HurricaneJosh]

Of course I'm getting excited about next week in the EPAC...

 

But since today is the 55th anniversary of the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959, I wanted to announce the preliminary results of our detailed study of this historic storm. Check it out—the results may surprise those of you who know this storm. Like many such reanalyses, this was a tough one, as we were working with sparse data, and the team had many in-depth worksessions to come to our hard-fought verdict. Lead author Andrew Hagen (ImpactWeather), me (iCyclone), and Jorge Abelardo González are now working on a formal paper to present our analysis to the National Hurricane Center’s Best Track Committee. Remember, at this point our verdict represents our opinion only—it is not official unless the Best Track Committee decides to accept our findings.

 

http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/27-october-2014.html

[Normandy]

Good work as always man

[HurricaneJosh]

Good work as always man

 

Hey, thanks!    How are you? Long time no chat.

[Yellow Evan]

Of course I'm getting excited about next week in the EPAC...

 

But since today is the 55th anniversary of the Great Mexico Hurricane of 1959, I wanted to announce the preliminary results of our detailed study of this historic storm. Check it out—the results may surprise those of you who know this storm. Like many such reanalyses, this was a tough one, as we were working with sparse data, and the team had many in-depth worksessions to come to our hard-fought verdict. Lead author Andrew Hagen (ImpactWeather), me (iCyclone), and Jorge Abelardo González are now working on a formal paper to present our analysis to the National Hurricane Center’s Best Track Committee. Remember, at this point our verdict represents our opinion only—it is not official unless the Best Track Committee decides to accept our findings.

 

http://icyclone.com/now/2014/oct/27-october-2014.html

 

You don't go into much about the reasoning for the the intensity and pressure of the hurricane at landfall. Also, any chance it might have been stronger offshore?

[HurricaneJosh]

You don't go into much about the reasoning for the the intensity and pressure of the hurricane at landfall. Also, any chance it might have been stronger offshore?

 

I don't go into the reasoning at all, actually-- because we haven't published the paper yet. These are just the preliminary results, and the paper-- which describes the analysis in depth-- is coming. Believe me, there's plenty of reasoning behind the findings-- we really wrestled with it over many worksessions and did not reach our verdict lightly. Even for the landfall wind, we went back and forth 5 kt a few times.

 

We don't believe it was stronger offshore-- we believe it strengthened up to landfall.

[HurricaneJosh]

In my mind, the storm doesn't lose any of its luster due to our downgrade. A small, tightly-wound, strengthening, 125-kt cyclone making a direct hit on a busy port city is a pretty nuclear event.

 

Based on our analysis, it's still tied for first in terms of strongest landfall in the basin. And, once we get to MADELINE 1976, who knows-- the 1959 storm might once again be sole king-- if we find MADELINE was also overestimated.

[Yellow Evan]

In my mind, the storm doesn't lose any of its luster due to our downgrade. A small, tightly-wound, strengthening, 125-kt cyclone making a direct hit on a busy port city is a pretty nuclear event.

 

Based on our analysis, it's still tied for first in terms of strongest landfall in the basin. And, once we get to MADELINE 1976, who knows-- the 1959 storm might once again be sole king-- if we find MADELINE was also overestimated.

Tbh, I never considered it a true C5 at landfall. As for Madeline, I don't think that was obviously overestimated by a substantial amount. The 1957 MX hurricane is also one taking a look at as HURDAT has it at 120 knts at landfall, comparable to the 125 you estimated from the 1959 cane.

[HurricaneJosh]

Tbh, I never considered it a true C5 at landfall. As for Madeline, I don't think that was obviously overestimated by a substantial amount. The 1957 MX hurricane is also one taking a look at as HURDAT has it at 120 knts at landfall, comparable to the 125 you estimated from the 1959 cane.

 

Yeah, I think after we complete this paper, we're going to look at 1957 and MADELINE. I want to hit all the really intense landfalls-- maybe OLIVIA 1967, too, which is considered 110 kt.  I have no opinion about whether MADELINE was overestimated until we really look at it-- but the storm happened long ago enough that it needs to be vetted.

 

Re: 1959, I was always wondering about the Cat-5 rating but went into the reanalysis with an open mind-- just ready to accept whatever the calculations  yielded.

 

At the end of the day, it's up to the NHC. They might not accept our findings and keep it a Cat 5-- although they're interested to see the paper and asked that we make it as detailed as possible.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the 0Z GFS has still another boomerang MX hit (this time 11/3-4).

 The 0Z Euro boomerangs into MX 11/4.

[HurricaneJosh]

Yep, 00Z Euro and GFS in very good agreement Re: MX threat in one week.  Getting some low-grade tingles for sure-- could be a really yummy setup.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I think after we complete this paper, we're going to look at 1957 and MADELINE. I want to hit all the really intense landfalls-- maybe OLIVIA 1967, too, which is considered 110 kt.  I have no opinion about whether MADELINE was overestimated until we really look at it-- but the storm happened long ago enough that it needs to be vetted.

 

Re: 1959, I was always wondering about the Cat-5 rating but went into the reanalysis with an open mind-- just ready to accept whatever the calculations  yielded.

 

At the end of the day, it's up to the NHC. They might not accept our findings and keep it a Cat 5-- although they're interested to see the paper and asked that we make it as detailed as possible.

 

There's also Tico 83 to deal with as IIIRC, that was 115 knts at landfall. While many keyt 70s and 80s hits have no known pressure, I will say that assuming your 1959 cane landfall pressure of 953 mbar stands, you can say that you have chased the stronger hurricane landfall by mbar on record (Odile, 930 mbar operationally, likely closer to 940).

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS brings this into the GOC and have this hitting near Jalisco/Sinaloa border.

[GaWx]

6z GFS brings this into the GOC and have this hitting near Jalisco/Sinaloa border.

 

 Fwiw, the 12Z GFS boomerangs it to near that area early on 11/4. At the very least, the last four runs of the GFS have shown a similar hit for late 10/3-early 10/4 fwiw. I maintain that climo is supportive since its peak ends only a few days prior to 11/3-4 and we're supposedly going into a weak Nino.

 For folks not recalling this, we went down this road in 2012 but this time we've had support from the Euro on a good number of runs, including the last few. In 2012, there was zero Euro support and the Euro ended up being correct.