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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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Glad someone brought up the upwelling. The SHIPS output a couple of days ago had 28-29C SST's in Polo's track which didn't make sense to me.

 

This is also my yearly reminder that the global models do not have the ability to depict upwelling by TCs... they are at the mercy of the initial condition SSTs, which then are slowly modified over time to climatological SST values for that time of the year.

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It's not, and probably won't ever be, the best-looking storm this Pacific hurricane season has offered so far, but at the very least it will aid in putting us one step closer to the end of the conventional alphabet.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014

 

Convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of
Mexico has increased and persisted overnight.  The convection is not
extremely well organized due to strong northeasterly shear, however
Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
system has enough organization to be classified as a tropical
depression.  The shear is causing the convection to be displaced to
the south and southwest of the low-level center.  The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest
Dvorak classifications and earlier ASCAT data.  Strong upper-level
winds over the cyclone are expected to continue during the next 24
hours or so.  After that time, the depression is forecast to move
into an area of decreasing shear and some gradually strengthening is
predicted.  Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a less
favorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance.

 

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt.  The depression should
move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico during the next several days.  After 72 hours, the cyclone
will approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough that will be moving into California.  This should cause the
cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward by days 4 and 5. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the NHC
track is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS model solutions.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  24/1500Z 15.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 17.7N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 18.6N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$

Forecaster Brown

 

4tSwEDy.gif

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Simon is likely a Major Hurricane at this hour. The guidance is split as to the re-curve scenario with the Euro further W before re-curve commences and the GFS insistent that a quicker turn to the NE begins on Monday. It will be interesting to see how the remnants of Simon affect the sensible weather next week across Northern Mexico, New Mexico and the Central Plains where there is some concern for flooding as the remnants wrap up and become entrenched in the 5H low expected over the Great Lakes later next week.

 

 

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Simon is definitely not rapidly intensifying still. 

 

The eye has begun to fill in and lose its definition. Also, convection is starting a warming trend. 

 

I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots 

 

grearth2014-10-0412-42-54-78.png

 

Meh, too soon to say IMO. Slight fluctuations like this is common in major hurricanes.

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I'd say that the max that recon finds is 105 knots 

 

 

 

Not bad...

 

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph)

 

000

WTPZ64 KNHC 041753

TCUEP4

HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014

1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A

MAJOR HURRICANE...

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115

MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT

IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR

HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

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Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964).

 

Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable.

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Interesting that Yolanda is the "Y" name for every second year, same name as Haiyan in the Philippines. I also see Dora on the rotation for 2017 and that's a retired name from the Atlantic (1964).

 

Also Isis was put the rotation long before the Middle East events, so that's not really unbelievable.

I know that, but it seems so ironic.

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Poor Trudy... nobody wants to talk about her despite an impressive radar presentation for a 40 mph tropical storm.

 

 

 

Quite a shame it didn't have more time over water, from the 06z SHIPS (as these ignore land)

 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    75% is   5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    67% is   7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    57% is   9.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    54% is  12.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Thought y'all might enjoy this, from my Hurricane ODILE chase—the most wild of my career aside from Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

 

After the calm eye had cleared Cabo San Lucas, just minutes into the cyclone’s backside, our hotel lobby suddenly exploded into flying glass, furniture, and wreckage. Our hotel was awesome enough to send us the surveillance video! The first shot shows my cameraman, Steve; the second shows me. You can laugh at our shocked reactions—I look like Chicken Little trying to shield my eyes from flying glass :D —but notice that the first thing we both do is grab our cameras—like good chaserdudes.  Each time I replay these videos, I notice cool new details: Steve’s computer blowing away, a flying chair, a sofa cushion swirling in a circle, a large door launching from the hotel entrance like a missile…

 

P.S. iCyclone’s official ODILE video is coming soon—but in the meantime, enjoy this deep-fried appetizer. 

 

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