jbenedet Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It seems Norbert would at least provide some rain for southern CA Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Eh..I'd bet strongly against much of anything at this point other than some extra clouds. Looks like he'll be slowing down dramatically as he moves north, and over the much cooler waters near Northern Baja.... Models still show some mid to upper level moisture making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 ATCF has this at 95 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Norbert is very near major hurricane intensity, if it hasn't already attained it. Should be a cat 3 on the 11pm PDT advisory if it can maintain that structure. The East Pac has just been absolutely prolific this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957: No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt) 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt) 1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt) 1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt) 1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt) 1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt) 2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt) 2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt) So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27 As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 From Josh, here are the major hurricane hits since 1957: No. 10 (22 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 4 (120 kt) 1959 Great Mexico Hurricane (27 Oct) - Jalisco - Cat 5 (140 kt) 1967 Olivia (14 Oct) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1975 Olivia (25 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (100 kt) 1976 Liza (01 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (~100 kt) 1976 Madeline (08 Oct) - Guerrero - Cat 4 (125 kt) 1983 Tico (19 Oct) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (110 kt) 1989 Kiko (27 Aug) - Baja California Sur - Cat 3 (960 mb/100 kt) 2002 Kenna (25 Oct) - Nayarit - Cat 4 (950 mb/120 kt) 2006 Lane (16 Sep) - Sinaloa - Cat 3 (954 mb/110 kt) So hit dates were as follows: 8/27, 9/16, 10/1, 10/8, 10/14, 10/19, 10/22, 10/25, 10/25, 10/27 As Josh mentioned, real strongest (cat. 4-5) hit mainly in late Oct.: 10/8, 10/22, 10/25, 10/27 Oncoming weak to moderate Ninos actually are the ENSO state since 1949 that has been the most favorable for the major MX hits (Liza, Madeline, Kenna, and Lane). 1957's #10 hit during an oncoming strong El Nino. I'm not expecting a major landfall from this. But worth noting as we hit October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Someone needs to update the subtitle... I think Norbert is well over the threshold of "almost being a hurricane" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 This hasn't been discussed much--who thinks we'll exhaust the alphabet this year? Norbert is the 14th named storm of the season. The NHC has highlighted 2 other AOIs, and the long-range GFS and ECMWF have another cyclone forming close to the coast. The MJO isn't set to arrive until the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 7, 2014 Author Share Posted September 7, 2014 I'd be surprised if we do. I don't buy that 5 day TWO lemon yet. I'm thinking it'll interact with the low to its left. I'm expecting 20-21 storms. IMO, we are more likely to set the major record (10). 1992 owns it outright currently but had 4 majors after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 7, 2014 Author Share Posted September 7, 2014 We now have tow lemons. The one to the W is not likely to form, but the one to the E GFS is decently aggressive with. It would not shock me if it winds up a major thanks to an approaching CCKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1100 AM PDT MON SEP 8 2014 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: 1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south ofAcapulco, Mexico has become better defined today. Environmentalconditions are expected to be conducive for development, and thissystem is likely to become a tropical depression during the nextfew days while it moves slowly northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi The GFS shows this passing very close to the southwestern Mexico coastline as a 963mb major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 The 12Z Euro suggests a miss of the Baja Peninsula with potential Odile. That said a robust cckw is approaching so we may see another Major develop as the weekend nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 8, 2014 Author Share Posted September 8, 2014 12z GFS made the mandarin a 963mbar hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 9, 2014 Author Share Posted September 9, 2014 Which is now a cherry. It has perfect conditions aside from a little too much dry air. We could see a Cat 4 out of this easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The spectacular 2014 Pacific hurricane season continues--Invest 94E to the top right, Invest 95E to the bottom left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 TD 15E for S of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to keep development slow during the next24 to 36 hours at it drifts NNW. The current track guidance suggests a possible landfall near Cabo San Lucas later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during thepast few hours, and microwave images show increasing organizationof the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 ktfrom TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB. Using a blend of these estimatesyields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone TropicalStorm Odile.Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last severalhours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward driftis forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains inweak steering currents. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipatedto feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north andnortheast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster paceto the northwest. Although the models are in fair agreement onthis overall scenario, the big question is how close to thesouthwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get. TheECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance andbring the center of Odile very near or over the coast ofsouthwestern Mexico. Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odilewell offshore. The NHC track forecast is again between thesesolutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of theforecast period.Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few dayswhile the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moistenvironment, and over very warm 30 C water. The only limitingfactor could be land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast showsa slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, butis lower than the SHIPS guidance.A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast ofsouthwestern Mexico later today. Regardless, locally heavy rainsare possible across that area later this week.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH12H 11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W 55 KT 65 MPH36H 12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH72H 13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH96H 14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short. I see the GS index has become negative in the EPac as well I think that the ULL from the GoM will start to fill up and will be no match to the building upper level anticyclone from Odile. Weakening in the 0z Euro is due to land interaction, but I don't think the weakness will be as pronounced as shown in the Euro and HRWF, and the ridge to it's north will be the main steering mechanism before getting too close to land. With that said, I agree with the NHC's track and intensity forecast...although the potential for a stronger hurricane is definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't think that Odile will intensify as much as forecast. Satellite imagery indicates that an upper low over the southern Gulf of Mexico is retrograding westward, resulting in a squished high pressure to the north of Odile, thereby imparting some northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear over the TC. The ECMWF shows this upper low moving closer to Odile while gradually weakening over the next three days. Such a solution would keep at least light to moderate shear over Odile. In addition, the weakness imparted by the upper low would support a track closer to the coast, hence more land interaction on the ECMWF, which is notably weaker with Odile than the GFS is over the next three days. I think that a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane is likely. As for the other two systems, at least one of them will become a TS, but northerly shear will increase over the next few days, so their time is short. I'm sorry but I disagree. Storms can intensify with light to moderate shear. And the guidance has been shifting west. You realize that virtually every storm this season has gotten much stronger than expected this season, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 Thanks to the stubborn Upper Level Ridge NW of Hawaii, there won't be any canes nearing Central/Southern Cali. Well, that and probably climo which suggests that canes are extremely rare anywhere near Central/Southern Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Wow. Anyone else think that cherry could be something special? I haven't been following weather too long but it seems like the E-Pac waves always look way more impressive than the Atlantic ones, with huge masses of cold cloud tops before they become depressions. Wonder if Polo and Odile will be TS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Wow. Anyone else think that cherry could be something special? I haven't been following weather too long but it seems like the E-Pac waves always look way more impressive than the Atlantic ones, with huge masses of cold cloud tops before they become depressions. Wonder if Polo and Odile will be TS at the same time. Some of the 0z runs take the invest into Baja. That's the last thing they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Some of the 0z runs take the invest into Baja. That's the last thing they need. Absolutely. Maybe the waters behind Odile are a little colder, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Looks like we have Polo! SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion ofthe low pressure area south of Mexico.The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on TropicalStorm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of theBaja California peninsula.Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of lowpressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco,Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds totropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity hasalso become better organized during the past couple of hours,and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT thismorning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward tonorthwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interestsalong the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress ofthis system.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Looks like we have Polo! SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1210 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the discussion of the low pressure area south of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Odile, located inland over the south-central portion of the Baja California peninsula. Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better defined, and is producing winds to tropical storm force. The associated thunderstorm activity has also become better organized during the past couple of hours, and tropical storm advisories will be initiated at 2 AM PDT this morning. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph during the next few days. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. Deja vu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Polo is a hurricane per ATCF. If it RI's, say hello to major #9. Not going to happen. Satellite derived SST data is just picking up on the cold wake left behind from Odile but there are some sub 26C waters that Polo is traversing over. Its absolutely incorrect to think that the reason why the convective appearance looks disheveled is just due to vertical wind shear alone (despite the fact the NHC has made no mention of cold upwelling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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