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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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I was being too bullish earlier. I guess I was just too excited :P

 

Still, I think the odds are decent that we'll see a major next week. BTW, 12E is now Lowell, and Karina is up to 55 knts.

 

I agree, there's at least a decent shot at a major.

12Z GFS was a dream run with remnants of that storm making it up here in about 2 weeks (highly unprecedented). Too bad there's a 0.1% shot of that happening.  :P

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I agree, there's at least a decent shot at a major.

12Z GFS was a dream run with remnants of that storm making it up here in about 2 weeks (highly unprecedented). Too bad there's a 0.1% shot of that happening.  :P

I think there were 1-2 runs of the GFDL for Linda in 1997 that made it to Los Angeles as a hurricane; that was fun.

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Lowell and Karina are chugging along as a 45 knt TS. We now have 92E, a mandarin. Unanimous agreement on a major.

92E makes it to Landfall in Southern CA (weakening rapidly, of course) on the 18Z GFS. I couldn't Imagine the pants-wetting frenzy of an actual advisory tropical system making landfall in CA in today's media environment.

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The 12z GFS has a fujiwhara effect for Karina and Lowell and merges them at about 114 hours.

 

---

NHC discussion on Karina

 

--

Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequentlythe storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipatedduring the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward,followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forwardspeed around the south and east sides of the large circulation ofTropical Storm Lowell.
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Wow Lowell has a pretty goofy looking presentation.  That's a massive eye.  Will be neat to watch this one die off, per the 2 AM advisory:

 

After that
time, the shear is expected to remain low, but the cyclone will be
moving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air
mass that should cause weakening. Given the large size of Lowell's
wind field, the rate of weakening is likely to be slower than the
typical spin down of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that move
over cool water.  In fact, Lowell is likely to become a
convective-free post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in
a few days.

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NHC issued one of the more strongly worded forecasts I've seen in a long time in the public outlook.

 

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. The
cyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast,
consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are
also present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well
established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity
estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to
set the initial intensity to 60 kt.

Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the
initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected
through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side
of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern
United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward
the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the
western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is
generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast
is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in
the guidance to the north this cycle.

The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day
or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment
for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea,
indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the
upper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the
very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the
intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then
again, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics
such as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from
realizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie
over sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening,
even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensity
forecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the
guidance but is closest to SHIPS model output.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1094W, 115, 953, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

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EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 34, NEQ, 220, 180, 150, 150, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 60, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1108W, 130, 929, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 400, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

 

Not only is Marie the strongest storm of the season (Amanda 14 was 135/932), Marie is the strongest EPAC storm since Dora 11, which was 135/929. Tied for strongest since Celia 10, which was 140/921.

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