tmagan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Genevieve now a Category four hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Author Share Posted August 7, 2014 Genevieve has deepened 75 knts in 24 hours. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Genevieve has deepened 75 knts in 24 hours. WOW. TCs don't deepen their max wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 What's wrong with the longitudes? Genevieve is crossing Longitude 180 and will be a typhoon shortly as it will be a WPAC storm. Steve I think the negative and positive are reversed on the map for the longitude values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 She's crossing the DL now. (Unofficial) super-typhoon status is inevitable given trends and excellent UL support / SSTs. My guess is that the TC will attain 140-150 kt peak winds within the next 24-36 hours. Such an intensity would make Genevieve one of the easternmost Cat.-5 typhoons on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I think the negative and positive are reversed on the map for the longitude values.I tthink the assignment of +/- values depends upon which way you proceed from Greenwich though I have seen the signs reversed from above. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I tthink the assignment of +/- values depends upon which way you proceed from Greenwich though I have seen the signs reversed from above. Steve Nope. It's standard for the North and East hemispheres to be positive, West and South are negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 Been four days this this thread was touched. We now have a mandarin and a lemon. The former of which is 99E and will likely be another hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 We now have 11E. Forecast to become yet another hurricane, though IMO we could see a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 It appears that TS Karina has formed and may well be on its way to another Major Hurricane. Meanwhile further W, SE of Hawaii 90E has been designated and could be a depression after it is handed over to the CPHC later today or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Funny thing is that ECMWF pretty much shows it remaining a very weak TC, keeping it fairly shallow and failing to develop a strong mid-level PV tower. Very monsoon depression like is what the ECMWF is suggesting, which I am not buying given the current organization. If easterly shear picks up though, that could be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 13, 2014 Author Share Posted August 13, 2014 Models are kinda weird right now. Pretty much every model is acting like the CMC and developing several TC's. This included UKMET, CMC, and to a lesster extent, HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF. NOGAPS and FIM are more conservative. Both 90E and Karina could be long term Hawaii threats. 90E will be a TS, while I somewhat wonder why Karina is not expected to become a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I keep reading it as Katrina. I don't know why they had to pick such a similar replacement name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 14, 2014 Author Share Posted August 14, 2014 I keep reading it as Katrina. I don't know why they had to pick such a similar replacement name. It didn't replace Katrina. It replaced Kenna which was pulled 3 years before Katrina.; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 15, 2014 Author Share Posted August 15, 2014 Karina a hurricane while 90C is a cherry in the CPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 Karina a hurricane while 90C is a cherry in the CPAC. In the Central Pacific tropical weather outlook, they call 90C an 'irregular area of low pressure'. Not sure I have ever seen an area of low pressure termed 'irregular'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 16, 2014 Author Share Posted August 16, 2014 Karina down to TS, but could re-intensify but it may interact. A lemon has formed east of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 It didn't replace Katrina. It replaced Kenna which was pulled 3 years before Katrina.; I think he knows this, although obviously no one knew that Katrina would be such a catastrophic storm three years ahead of time like you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 17, 2014 Author Share Posted August 17, 2014 Karina a boring weak Ts. Could re-intensify and take an epic track though. 91E a cheery. GFS forecasts 2 TS' and 1 major behind 19E. UKMEt shows 6 systems active at a time while FIM and the Euro show 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 91E likely to be a TD. Karina hanging in there. Next week, we have a CCKW coming and possibly MJO as well. We could see a major by late next week, one of those classic second half of the season type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 BULLETINTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.1N 116.6WABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 18, 2014 Author Share Posted August 18, 2014 TD 12E is in a decent environment. It's problem is it is very large. It'll both intensify and weaken slowly IMO. It could bring some rain to California, Arizona, and Nevada depending on how far east the cutoff ULL comes, which can draw up moisture from the trough. However, there is little agreement between the Euro and GFS here. Hence why the Euro favors a more northerly track. Behind that we have a 0/40 that models are very keen on. Over the past two days, there has been a bit of a model war. Two days ago, the Euro was keeping this offshore, while the GFS/CMC had it hitting California. Now, the reverse has happened, though the latest Euro run keeps this offshore as well. As for as intensification goes, the sky is the limit. One thing I would like to point out, however, is the models tendency to move a storm too slowly and thus have it lasting over warmer SST's longer than what actually happened. 95E and Ivo 13 were victims of this in a very big way, as they were initially forecast to be majors. Still, given that 11E and 12E are moving slowly, as well as the overall warm SST's this year than last, led me to believe that this system is for real. Also worth pointing out that the CMC and the Euro are in better agreement now than they were in both Octave, Ivo, and 95E's case in 2013, as well as in Rosa's 12 case. We do have a Kelvin Wave support this time around; however, it is uncertain whether we will have the MJO's support. Models are in good agreement on MJO passing through both basins. However, it is uncertain to whether MJO actually retrogrades. Anyhow, we have two others systems behind that that the GFS develops, including one major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The Global operational and ensemble guidance has been very insistent in developing a rather large and potentially strong tropical cyclone S to SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week. There are indications that a rather deep Western trough develops and this potential Hurricane will track parallel to the West Coast of Mexico. Typically we see re-curving EPAC Hurricanes in the month of September into October, but there is some potential that the TC could turn N to NE as it nears the Baja Peninsula or the Sea of Cortez in the day 7-8 timeframe. There is a rather robust Kelvin wave across the Eastern Pacific and conditions appear very favorable for TC genesis this week across the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It would be bold, but you can almost say a 90% or greater chance of development for the wave over Panama the next five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this. The ECMWF ensemble mean has this in the long term, something you do not often see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this. Deep pressures depicted by a global model are usually a signal of a large storm, but not necessarily a powerful one (as in >= Cat 4). We'll have to see how the incipient disturbance consolidates. Too early to go gung-ho on Cat 5 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Deep pressures depicted by a global model are usually a signal of a large storm, but not necessarily a powerful one (as in >= Cat 4). We'll have to see how the incipient disturbance consolidates. Too early to go gung-ho on Cat 5 potential. The GFS does have this as a large system, yes. But assuming it develops a good inner core and isn't monsoonal, we should at least get a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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