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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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It appears that TS Karina has formed and may well be on its way to another Major Hurricane. Meanwhile further W, SE of Hawaii 90E has been designated and could be a depression after it is handed over to the CPHC later today or tonight.

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Funny thing is that ECMWF pretty much shows it remaining a very weak TC, keeping it fairly shallow and failing to develop a strong mid-level PV tower. Very monsoon depression like is what the ECMWF is suggesting, which I am not buying given the current organization. If easterly shear picks up though, that could be a different story.

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Models are kinda weird right now.

 

Pretty much every model is acting like the CMC and developing several TC's. This included UKMET, CMC, and to a lesster extent, HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF. NOGAPS and FIM are more conservative.

 

Both 90E and Karina could be long term Hawaii threats. 90E will be a TS, while I somewhat wonder why Karina is not expected to become a major hurricane.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

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TD 12E is in a decent environment. It's problem is it is very large. It'll both intensify and weaken slowly IMO. It could bring some rain to California, Arizona, and Nevada depending on how far east the cutoff ULL comes, which can draw up moisture from the trough. However, there is little agreement between the Euro and GFS here. Hence why the Euro favors a more northerly track.

 

Behind that we have a 0/40 that models are very keen on. Over the past two days, there has been a bit of a model war. Two days ago, the Euro was keeping this offshore, while the GFS/CMC had it hitting California. Now, the reverse has happened, though the latest Euro run keeps this offshore as well. As for as intensification goes, the sky is the limit. One thing I would like to point out, however, is the models tendency to move a storm too slowly and thus have it lasting over warmer SST's longer than what actually happened. 95E and Ivo 13 were victims of this in a very big way, as they were initially forecast to be majors. Still, given that 11E and 12E are moving slowly, as well as the overall warm SST's this year than last, led me to believe that this system is for real. Also worth pointing out that the CMC and the Euro are in better agreement now than they were in both Octave, Ivo, and 95E's case in 2013, as well as in Rosa's 12 case. We do have a Kelvin Wave support this time around; however, it is uncertain whether we will have the MJO's support. Models are in good agreement on MJO passing through both basins. However, it is uncertain to whether MJO actually retrogrades.

 

Anyhow, we have two others systems behind that that the GFS develops, including one major.

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The Global operational and ensemble guidance has been very insistent in developing a rather large and potentially strong tropical cyclone S to SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week. There are indications that a rather deep Western trough develops and this potential Hurricane will track parallel to the West Coast of Mexico. Typically we see re-curving EPAC Hurricanes in the month of September into October, but there is some potential that the TC could turn N to NE as it nears the Baja Peninsula or the Sea of Cortez in the day 7-8 timeframe. There is a rather robust Kelvin wave across the Eastern Pacific and conditions appear very favorable for TC genesis this week across the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

 

 

 

 

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Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this.

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Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this.

The ECMWF ensemble mean has this in the long term, something you do not often see.

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Latest GFS run has this 0/70 thingy to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this.

 

Deep pressures depicted by a global model are usually a signal of a large storm, but not necessarily a powerful one (as in >= Cat 4). We'll have to see how the incipient disturbance consolidates. Too early to go gung-ho on Cat 5 potential.

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Deep pressures depicted by a global model are usually a signal of a large storm, but not necessarily a powerful one (as in >= Cat 4). We'll have to see how the incipient disturbance consolidates. Too early to go gung-ho on Cat 5 potential.

 

The GFS does have this as a large system, yes. But assuming it develops a good inner core and isn't monsoonal, we should at least get a major.

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