Yellow Evan Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Hernan has perished. Bunch of stuff in the CPAC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Update: Genevieve has came back from the dead. EPAC has been very active as of late though. We have Invest 95E, a cherry, and to the left a non-invest lemon an a 20%er on the 5 day TWO to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 95E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Iselle. There's some signs of southwesterly shear, but the storm appears to be organizing decently nonetheless. NHC is forecasting an 80 mph peak. FWIW, the formation of Iselle marks the 4th earliest instance of the 9th named storm in the East Pacific (not including the Central Pacific) on record, behind 1985's Ignacio (July 21), 1990's Iselle (July 21), and 1992's Isis (July 29). 1992 ended up being the most active Pacific hurricane season on record, 1985 ended up being the second most active, and 1990 ended up being the fifth most active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 95E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Iselle. There's some signs of southwesterly shear, but the storm appears to be organizing decently nonetheless. NHC is forecasting an 80 mph peak. FWIW, the formation of Iselle marks the 4th earliest instance of the 9th named storm in the East Pacific (not including the Central Pacific) on record, behind 1985's Ignacio (July 21), 1990's Iselle (July 21), and 1992's Isis (July 29). 1992 ended up being the most active Pacific hurricane season on record, 1985 ended up being the second most active, and 1990 ended up being the fifth most active. Counting CPAC, it is the 4th fastest 10th storm in basin history. We also have 96E, but Iselle is the big picture. With that said, I'm not 100% sure it will be a major, but it has a decent shot at becoming another hurricane. If it RI's, it'll have a chance to become a major. But models aren't that aggressive with it, and there could be modest wind shear. Still, a Cat 1 or even 2 is fairly doable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Iselle per the ATCF is up to 55 knts. Things are escalating quickly., and at this rate, we could have a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Iselle leveling off for now, but still suppose to become a hurricane. We also have 96E and 97E, the latter of which could be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Iselle became a hurricane at 3z and seems to be holding steady for now. Awesomely enough, I was looking into its history and discovered that the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic is the same one responsible for this storm. Also, it looks like Genevieve has regenerated...once again...south of Hawaii. The GFS takes this into the West Pacific in a few days, where it intensifies into a 969mb typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 A couple of notes about the Central Pacific: 1) By late next week, we can see something we usually do not see in the Central Pacific, reconnaissance reports. 2) Also by late next week, we may see something rare in the Central Pacific, three simultaneous classified tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 2, 2014 Author Share Posted August 2, 2014 Iselle up to 70 knts. Could it make a run a Cat 2? 97E is a cherry, at 60/90. Likely to become a hurricane, Both forecast to make it to the CPAC, and possibly affect Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Genevieve back from the dead for a second time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 If both the GFS and ECMWF are correct, we might be heading into an unprecedented time for CPAC TC activity. I am almost certain there have never been four simultaneous TCs in this basin since records have been kept, but that's exactly what the ECMWF is suggesting in the long range (5-7 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 2, 2014 Author Share Posted August 2, 2014 If both the GFS and ECMWF are correct, we might be heading into an unprecedented time for CPAC TC activity. I am almost certain there have never been four simultaneous TCs in this basin since records have been kept, but that's exactly what the ECMWF is suggesting in the long range (5-7 days). By that time, Genevieve should be in the WPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 By that time, Genevieve should be in the WPAC Good point... It should be around 170E in that model snapshot. Just to the small surface area of the CPAC domain you can see why it would be nearly impossible to have four regular sized TCs in its finite space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 2, 2014 Author Share Posted August 2, 2014 EP, 09, 2014080218, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1296W, 85, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 1009, 180, 15, 105, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D, Here we go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 It would seem that 97E would eventually pass over the same waters upwelled by Iselle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 3, 2014 Author Share Posted August 3, 2014 It would seem that 97E would eventually pass over the same waters upwelled by Iselle. Maybe a little more north, due to the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 Iselle expected to become a MH now. Up to 95 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 3, 2014 Author Share Posted August 3, 2014 ATCF makes it 100 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 3, 2014 Share Posted August 3, 2014 Crazy amount of activity so far. This is gonna be a long EPAC season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 ATCF brings Iselle down to 90 knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Nice evidence of mesovorticies in the eyewall of Iselle acting as "mixmasters" that should mix out the remainder of the cloudiness in the eyewall. I'd say there is a good chance this goes annual over the next 24-48 hours if the shear remains low as it is currently. The NHC suggests the storm possess annual characteristics right now, but it still needs to clear out the debris in its eye to truly reach perfect symmetry characteristic of annular TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 Right now, IMO Iselle is an interesting setup. A ridge should keep it W, but a trough could cause it too accelerate WNW. Questions is how far deep will the trough dig? Models have gradually trended northward, but IMO may slightly overdue it, but again, Hawaii tends to reform the LLC of weak systems either north of south. They also likely overdue 93C and this interacting. The intensity forecast is quite tricky, the statistical models show steady weakening, but the dynamic models have the storm hanging on. If the system is a pest, it could pass through the island group, or if it is strong enough, make landfall. If it's not, and this will probably IMO won't happen, it'll die before reaching the islands and/or pass north of it. 97E is now 10E. Forecast is tricky, but it will likely be a hurricane. Shear (early on) and SST's upwelled from Iselle (later on) could limit intensification. A long-range Hawaii threat, and if the CMC run verifies, a trough could allow for it to pass close to Kaui. I would not bet on a major, but hey, Iselle did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 It is hard to assess intensity with this one. Eyewall convection isn't particularly deep due to marginal sea surface temperatures, but the structure of the storm is excellent and the eye is the warmest it has ever been. SAB was at T4.5/77kt and UW-CIMSS ADT is at T5.8/109.8kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The NHC calls it annular now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The NHC calls it annular now. Which is probably justified given the nearly circular and clear appearance of the eyewall... winds are up to 125 mph too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 SHIPS initializing Iselle as a Category 4 Hurricane and reconnaissance aircraft will be out in the system Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 SHIPS initializing Iselle as a Category 4 Hurricane and reconnaissance aircraft will be out in the system Wednesday. Late Tuesday I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Late Tuesday I thought. A G-IV mission is tasked for tomorrow and a low level flight for Wednesday the 6th with yesterdays issuance of TCPOD. It is also noteworthy that the GFS and Euro are suggesting a close brush with Hawaii of two tropical cyclones in fairly short order which would be a bit unusual for the Island chain. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT SUN 03 AUGUST 2014 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2014 TCPOD NUMBER.....14-064 CORRECTION II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING PHNL AT 05/1730Z FOR 06/0000Z. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR 16.3N 142.4W AT 06/0600Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 Iselle is truly mindblowing. 120 knts/947mbar. Hopefully it weakens by the time it reaches Hawaii. Regarding Julio, it is up to 40 knots. There is some shear which could very well get in the way for another 36-48 hours. Thereafter, it should be very favorable, so yes, it could become a major then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Looks like both Iselle and Julio could provide a threat to Hawaii down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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