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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014


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95E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Iselle. There's some signs of southwesterly shear, but the storm appears to be organizing decently nonetheless. NHC is forecasting an 80 mph peak.

 

FWIW, the formation of Iselle marks the 4th earliest instance of the 9th named storm in the East Pacific (not including the Central Pacific) on record, behind 1985's Ignacio (July 21), 1990's Iselle (July 21), and 1992's Isis (July 29). 1992 ended up being the most active Pacific hurricane season on record, 1985 ended up being the second most active, and 1990 ended up being the fifth most active.

 

jSzVUZZ.gif

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95E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Iselle. There's some signs of southwesterly shear, but the storm appears to be organizing decently nonetheless. NHC is forecasting an 80 mph peak.

 

FWIW, the formation of Iselle marks the 4th earliest instance of the 9th named storm in the East Pacific (not including the Central Pacific) on record, behind 1985's Ignacio (July 21), 1990's Iselle (July 21), and 1992's Isis (July 29). 1992 ended up being the most active Pacific hurricane season on record, 1985 ended up being the second most active, and 1990 ended up being the fifth most active.

 

jSzVUZZ.gif

 

Counting CPAC, it is the 4th fastest 10th storm in basin history. We also have 96E, but Iselle is the big picture.

 

With that said, I'm not 100% sure it will be a major, but it has a decent shot at becoming another hurricane. If it RI's, it'll have a chance to become a major. But models aren't that aggressive with it, and there could be modest wind shear. Still, a Cat 1 or even 2 is fairly doable IMO.

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Iselle became a hurricane at 3z and seems to be holding steady for now.

 

Awesomely enough, I was looking into its history and discovered that the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic is the same one responsible for this storm.

 

Also, it looks like Genevieve has regenerated...once again...south of Hawaii. The GFS takes this into the West Pacific in a few days, where it intensifies into a 969mb typhoon.

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A couple of notes about the Central Pacific:

 

1) By late next week, we can see something we usually do not see in the Central Pacific, reconnaissance reports.

 

2) Also by late next week, we may see something rare in the Central Pacific, three simultaneous classified tropical cyclones. 

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If both the GFS and ECMWF are correct, we might be heading into an unprecedented time for CPAC TC activity. I am almost certain there have never been four simultaneous TCs in this basin since records have been kept, but that's exactly what the ECMWF is suggesting in the long range (5-7 days).

 

Blowc0z.png

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If both the GFS and ECMWF are correct, we might be heading into an unprecedented time for CPAC TC activity. I am almost certain there have never been four simultaneous TCs in this basin since records have been kept, but that's exactly what the ECMWF is suggesting in the long range (5-7 days).

 

Blowc0z.png

 

By that time, Genevieve should be in the WPAC

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Nice evidence of mesovorticies in the eyewall of Iselle acting as "mixmasters" that should mix out the remainder of the cloudiness in the eyewall. I'd say there is a good chance this goes annual over the next 24-48 hours if the shear remains low as it is currently. The NHC suggests the storm possess annual characteristics right now, but it still needs to clear out the debris in its eye to truly reach perfect symmetry characteristic of annular TCs.

 

n7ONBAx.jpg

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Right now, IMO Iselle is an interesting setup. A ridge should keep it W, but a trough could cause it too accelerate WNW. Questions is how far deep will the trough dig? Models have gradually trended northward, but IMO may slightly overdue it, but again, Hawaii tends to reform the LLC of weak systems either north of south. They also likely overdue 93C and this interacting. The intensity forecast is quite tricky, the statistical models show steady weakening, but the dynamic models have the storm hanging on. If the system is a pest, it could pass through the island group, or if it is strong enough, make landfall. If it's not, and this will probably IMO won't happen, it'll die before reaching the islands and/or pass north of it.

 

97E is now 10E. Forecast is tricky, but it will likely be a hurricane. Shear (early on) and SST's upwelled from Iselle (later on) could limit intensification. A long-range Hawaii threat, and if the CMC run verifies, a trough could allow for it to pass close to Kaui. I would not bet on a major, but hey, Iselle did it.

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Late Tuesday I thought. 

A G-IV mission is tasked for tomorrow and a low level flight for Wednesday the 6th with yesterdays issuance of TCPOD. It is also noteworthy that the GFS and Euro are suggesting a close brush with Hawaii of two tropical cyclones in fairly short order which would be a bit unusual for the Island chain.

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT SUN 03 AUGUST 2014

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

         VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2014

         TCPOD NUMBER.....14-064 CORRECTION

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING

      PHNL AT 05/1730Z FOR 06/0000Z.

   3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE ISELLE NEAR

      16.3N 142.4W AT 06/0600Z.

 

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Iselle is truly mindblowing. 120 knts/947mbar. Hopefully it weakens by the time it reaches Hawaii.

 

Regarding Julio, it is up to 40 knots. There is some shear which could very well get in the way for another 36-48 hours. Thereafter, it should be very favorable, so yes, it could become a major then.

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