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E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

Yellow Evan

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Yellow Evan

Yellow Evan

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So, it's that time of year again. I think the EPAC will be somewhat busy, given the warm PDO, likely El Nino, average shear and average vertical instability. No true inhibiting factors (other than the fact we are in a "dead era", though it may or may not be ending, we won't know till we're a few years in.).

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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About half of the 12Z GEFS ensembles show a 1004 mb or below low off Mexico, 12Z op GFS gets some of that moisture to meet the trough IMBY (as noted by Steve at KHOU-TV 11 forum) and enhance rain in drought crippled SETX.

 

Would be a couple of days before the official start.

post-138-0-64614200-1399139273_thumb.gif

post-138-0-11720500-1399139342_thumb.gif

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Yellow Evan

Yellow Evan

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The EPAC has really underperformed in terms of LFs over the past several seasons at least…apart from Jova 2011 and Carlotta 2012, there haven't been any reasonably strong hits, even though there have been multiple active seasons like 2011, which had quite a few Category 4s.

 

Well, BCP is overrdue for a hurricane landfall. And Manuel 13 was a minimal hurricane and is the costliest EPAC storm on record. There was also Barbara 13. Also worth noting we are in a -activity era and a -landfall subera. I think landfalls could pick up this year though.

 

There's been tons of TS's landfalls.

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Yellow Evan

Yellow Evan

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Might actually have an invest from this area over the next 48 hours or so. 

 

GFS has been pretty consistent for a couple days now with the development of at least a strong tropical storm making landfall in MX in 84 hours. 

 

*cough* Josh, start the EPAC thread *cough* 

 

attachicon.gifgrearth 2014-05-04 19-39-38-71.png

 

attachicon.gifGFS120EPAC_latest.png

 

This is the EPAC thread; I just forgot to put the E in front of it. Can I mod fix that?

 

GFS has been showing this for a while, and the CMC for days.

 

I'd give it an 80% shot of becoming something, 70% shot at a name, and 30% shot at a cane.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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Looks like 12Z GFS is on board for what would probably be a stout tropical storm (based on GFS resolution and MSLP) in a bit over two days.

 

For the time frame involved, I'd think it should look a bit better organized by now.  All kinds of convection in the area, I sort of wish it has invest status and a floater.

 

 

...DISCUSSION...                                      

TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THE FIRST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED
NEAR 09N112W. THE SECOND AREA WAS ASSISTED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE
INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM THE PREVIOUS GAP WIND EVENT. THIS
AREA HAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR
THESE AREAS OF ENHANCED VORTICITY TO MERGE...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SHIFTING N THEN NE WHILE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS RELATED
TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND THE RESULTANT SHEAR. THE TREND FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER LOW WHILE THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE GFS TREND
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION BUT WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF/UKMET
FOR INTENSITY FOR LATER PERIODS.

 

 

post-138-0-89746700-1399310737_thumb.gif

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Srain

Srain

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The broad area of disturbed weather is now a Mandarin. The disturbance should begin to lift N to NE away from the monsoonal trough and impact SW Mexico with heavy rainfall that may extend into Texas later this week as the Western trough deepens. Development will likely be slow to occur and shear is expected to increase as the trough deepens.

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phil882

phil882

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The broad area of disturbed weather is now a Mandarin. The disturbance should begin to lift N to NE away from the monsoonal trough and impact SW Mexico with heavy rainfall that may extend into Texas later this week as the Western trough deepens. Development will likely be slow to occur and shear is expected to increase as the trough deepens.

 

Yea that is the main limiting factor right now... the storm is fairly broad and is currently in the most favorable environment it will have. It looks fairly impressive on satellite imagery, but the impressive upper-level outflow is likely masking the poorly organized low-level circulation/trough axis. 

 

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

Its worth noting that the MJO is currently in phase 8-1 and is of fairly high magnitude, which supports low-level westerly flow along the equator and convective enhancement in the East Pacific. Both have probably been aiding in the organization of this disturbance the last few days. 

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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Not sure if this one is going to do it. Too large of a disturbance, too little time. Wind shear...in association with a bypassing shortwave...and dry air...originating partly from inland Mexico and partly from the marine layer...will both increase tomorrow, effectively ending its chances for formation. It's a shame too--if this were to develop before May 14, it would be the earliest-forming East Pacific tropical storm on record.

 

On a positive note, however, visible satellite loops and the vorticity maps from UW-CIMSS show that it's not struggling with dual centers anymore. We'll see.

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phil882

phil882

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If it does develop, it will be in the next 12 hours... shear is already beginning to increase steadily (as evidence, most of the convection now on the NE flank of the disturbance). Diurnal max tonight should allow for one last significant pulse of deep convection overnight but tomorrow this system is likely to decouple as suggested by the ECMWF and GFS. 

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phil882

phil882

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Well, it is starting to look better. It's gonna be close. It looks like Octave 13 did for a while.

 

Well its certainly close the TD strength, but you can see the impact of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The mid-level center is displaced a good 50 km or more NE of the low-level vortex.

 

20140508.0030.coriolis.x.color37.90EINVE

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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Invest 90E came close to designation, but shear and dry air got to it a little too quickly. Nonetheless, the monsoon trough remains very active and a weak MJO signal is still present in the East Pacific. For this reason, we will have to continue monitoring for tropical cyclone development. The GFS, which previously dropped the development of a second system behind 90E, has picked it back up today, and actually shows it becoming a pretty formidable hurricane. While the operational run may be both too quick and too strong with development, it does have support from its ensemble members, with most showing a 1000-1005mb low southeast of Acapulco in 4-5 days.

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phil882

phil882

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GFS remains pretty aggressive with TCG in the 48-72 hour range, while the ECMWF is naturally more gun shy. I agree that the current phase of the MJO promotes convection over the EPAC and Central America, as well as favorable low-level westerlies which generates shear vorticity over the low-latitudes along the ITCZ. Its definitely worth keeping an eye on. 

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TropicalAnalystwx13

TropicalAnalystwx13

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Interesting area of disturbed weather south of the Bay of Tehuantepec but the GFS isn't showing any development from it.

 

Vi3lqm7.jpg

 

Looks like we'll get another shot at Amanda next week as a convective-coupled kelvin wave works into the region. Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing development; in fact, the former shows the system becoming a 967mb hurricane by next Thursday.

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phil882

phil882

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The area continues to fester... and both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting something comes out of this disturbance (or something behind it). The leading disturbance might be killed off by dry air infiltrating the boundary layer of the EPAC from the Gulf of Tehuantepec (a pretty strong cold surge is underway). However things should recover in the day 3-5 day range, around the time where the ECMWF is suggesting something developing. The GFS is keying on this leading disturbance which looking at the aforementioned dry air intrusion could be choked off convectively. 

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Srain

Srain

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The area continues to fester... and both the GFS and ECMWF are suggesting something comes out of this disturbance (or something behind it). The leading disturbance might be killed off by dry air infiltrating the boundary layer of the EPAC from the Gulf of Tehuantepec (a pretty strong cold surge is underway). However things should recover in the day 3-5 day range, around the time where the ECMWF is suggesting something developing. The GFS is keying on this leading disturbance which looking at the aforementioned dry air intrusion could be choked off convectively. 

The Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event should subside on Sunday. As we witnessed following the last gale event, TC genesis increased as dual areas of broad low pressure consolidated from the monsoonal trough and headed N to NE. This time the Euro is a bit more aggressive with genesis and is suggesting a formidable TC near the SW Coast of Mexico as a Western trough develops. 

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