MDstorm Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Are we sure we Modoki is what we want? 2009-2010 and 2002-2003 were not Modokis. I figure a more west-based traditional nino is actually better. I'm sure someone with more expertise can offer more insight. Actually the ninos of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were Modoki type ninos. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Actually the ninos of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were Modoki type ninos. MDstorm "Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2004–2005 and 2009–2010.[80] Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,[81] 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.[82][83]" Wikipedia always lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Don't have time to predict individual events, but I'll guess that mby gets 32" this season. I'm not buying into the hype that we get crushed two years in a row. That said, 32" is still 14" AN, so that's pretty damn good. A guess? C'mon, man, you can do better than that. This thread is all about serious predictions backed by sound meteorological principle and scientific reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 A guess? C'mon, man, you can do better than that. This thread is all about serious predictions backed by sound meteorological principle and scientific reasoning. Finally, someone gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 A guess? C'mon, man, you can do better than that. This thread is all about serious predictions backed by sound meteorological principle and scientific reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 "Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2004–2005 and 2009–2010.[80] Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,[81] 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.[82][83]" Wikipedia always lies. Central Pacific Ninos and Modoki events are the same thing----just different terms. . See the index list below for the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index). Positive values are linked to Modoki/Central Pacific El Ninos. 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were Modoki events. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Central Pacific Ninos and Modoki events are the same thing----just different terms. . See the index list below for the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index). Positive values are linked to Modoki/Central Pacific El Ninos. 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were Modoki events. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt MDstorm Yep. And let's not put the cart before the horse either. We need to get a Nino first before classifying it. We are way way behind even the most conservative predictions a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I predict 487" of 0z GFS snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 How many superstorms do we get this year? I say five, four will fringe us and dump on New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Yep. And let's not put the cart before the horse either. We need to get a Nino first before classifying it. We are way way behind even the most conservative predictions a few months ago. Totally agree. ENSO modeling can burn you. However, with oncoming Kelvin wave and the fact that SOI has been solidly negative for the last 2 weeks, one can hope that the little El Nino that could is on its way. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I predict 487" of 0z GFS snow. You always hedge conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Totally agree. ENSO modeling can burn you. However, with oncoming Kelvin wave and the fact that SOI has been solidly negative for the last 2 weeks, one can hope that the little El Nino that could is on its way. MDstorm It's been a pain in the rear end this year. It's been a step forward and a step back since spring. I agree that we probably have a decent chance stepping forward with the upcoming wave and soi but is this the start of a more prolonged push towards a Nino or just another false signal? I'm kinda jaded. I'll go false until true verifies. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 How many superstorms do we get this year? I say five, four will fringe us and dump on New England. and the fifth rains on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 I predict 487" of 0z GFS snow. The Euro is the king of modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 ugly....neutral, -PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 ugly....neutral, -PDO I'm wondering if my 3" prediction was too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Where do I look for the -PDO signature? The Gulf of Alaska still seems warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Where do I look for the -PDO signature? The Gulf of Alaska still seems warm. This should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 This should help. pdo.JPG Looks like somewhere in between to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Looks like somewhere in between to me? Numerically, PDO is probably neutral. But it's been a steady drop. Just compare the nw pac to the first week in July: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 Where do I look for the -PDO signature? The Gulf of Alaska still seems warm. What Bob said..Here is a general representation...keep in mind that the placement of the anomalies is more important than the index number... Here is currently...It's not super super negative, but look at all the warm water... Here is an example of a super positive PDO....2002-03 was an insanely positive PDO...the combination of the Nino, the +PDO and the warm GOA, helped create this sick cold pattern which eventually got snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What Bob said..Here is a general representation...keep in mind that the placement of the anomalies is more important than the index number... Here is currently...It's not super super negative, but look at all the warm water... anomnight.8.18.2014.gif Here is an example of a super positive PDO....2002-03 was an insanely positive PDO...the combination of the Nino, the +PDO and the warm GOA, helped create this sick cold pattern which eventually got snowy eSkH6mKCI5.png I see what we are looking at now. Thanks for the clarification, although wouldn't this be beneficial for another vortex visit at some point this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I think everyone should panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 Here is currently...It's not super super negative, but look at all the warm water... It's been trending consistently down since the peak of 1.80 in May. It is what it is. If the current ssta's look like this in Nov then we'll have to claw to climo snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 I think everyone should panic. I've been worrying about whether I should be worrying. Now I'm worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 It's been trending consistently down since the peak of 1.80 in May. It is what it is. If the current ssta's look like this in Nov then we'll have to claw to climo snow. It fluctuates quite a bit anyway and not sure it will kill us either...The decadal state is probably still negative though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 20, 2014 Author Share Posted August 20, 2014 I've been worrying about whether I should be worrying. Now I'm worried. hopefully you don't get too much snow this winter..I know you had enough last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 What Bob said..Here is a general representation...keep in mind that the placement of the anomalies is more important than the index number... Here is currently...It's not super super negative, but look at all the warm water... anomnight.8.18.2014.gif Here is an example of a super positive PDO....2002-03 was an insanely positive PDO...the combination of the Nino, the +PDO and the warm GOA, helped create this sick cold pattern which eventually got snowy eSkH6mKCI5.png Isn't 4 months enough time to see some big changes there? Also, would a couple of strong hurricanes in the west Pacific have any effect on those ocean surface temps that far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 hopefully you don't get too much snow this winter..I know you had enough last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 20, 2014 Share Posted August 20, 2014 It fluctuates quite a bit anyway and not sure it will kill us either...The decadal state is probably still negative though... Where in that decadal state are we? Near the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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