Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I predict 10 times more modeled threats than actual threats and that's only through 240 hours. Go out all 15 days and we can double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 DCA - 34" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I predict I will be unhappy with my predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 IMBY--107" IAD---122" BWI---103" DCA---68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 IMBY--107" IAD---122" BWI---103" DCA---68" The distribution seems pretty accurate. Here are my "predictions" (no reasoning whatsoever). IMBY: 96" BWI: 88" IAD: 98" DCA: 75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 This is just a little graph I put together showing 24" snowstorms in US cities. Didn't know where to post, so I just put it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Don't have time to predict individual events, but I'll guess that mby gets 32" this season. I'm not buying into the hype that we get crushed two years in a row. That said, 32" is still 14" AN, so that's pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The distribution seems pretty accurate. Here are my "predictions" (no reasoning whatsoever). IMBY: 96" BWI: 88" IAD: 98" DCA: 75" You really think DCA will do that well? They measured less than 40" last winter. I'm 10 miles northwest of them and measured 51". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 You really think DCA will do that well? They measured less than 40" last winter. I'm 10 miles northwest of them and measured 51". Maybe this year will be more even with distribution. I really have no idea. Honestly though, above average snow with cold temps two years in a row would be pretty rad. Assuming we have slightly above average snow, it would probably be more like this: IMBY: 35" BWI: 30" IAD: 40" DCA: 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Maybe this year will be more even with distribution. I really have no idea. Honestly though, above average snow with cold temps two years in a row would be pretty rad. Assuming we have slightly above average snow, it would probably be more like this: IMBY: 35" BWI: 30" IAD: 40" DCA: 25" When do we ever have slightly above average snow? It's always either over 60" or below 5". We thought this winter would finally be an above average winter without being insane, but it ended on an insane note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 When do we ever have slightly above average snow? It's always either over 60" or below 5". We thought this winter would finally be an above average winter without being insane, but it ended on an insane note. Good point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 That chart killed part of my winter weenie soul just now. Oh... the DC stats? Well, if it makes you feel any better, DC's biggest storm was bigger than Baltimore's biggest storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 DCA 18" IAD 31" BWI 26" That would be my honest total WAG attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 My new prediction: An inch of snow every day from December 1st to February 28th. Total: 89". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 DCA 18" IAD 31" BWI 26" That would be my honest total WAG attm. If we get any type of active southern stream, I think you might be able to double those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 This might make sense, but it just doesn't. When do we ever have slightly above average snow? It's always either over 60" or below 5". We thought this winter would finally be an above average winter without being insane, but it ended on an insane note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 If we get any type of active southern stream, I think you might be able to double those numbers. Call me a weenie, but with an el nino and a favorable Pacific and Atlantic I would actually agree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 If we get any type of active southern stream, I think you might be able to double those numbers. The forecasted nino is still totally in the crapper. I'm not betting on anything until things become more clear. Weak nino's are totally mixed looking back. Active ss could also mean rainy more than snowy. We've been there twice in the last 10 years. 07 was saved late. I don't remember what 04-05 was in these parts other than warm. Speculating is what we do but there really isn't anything special to speculate about. We'll know more come oct-nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The forecasted nino is still totally in the crapper. I'm not betting on anything until things become more clear. Weak nino's are totally mixed looking back. Active ss could also mean rainy more than snowy. We've been there twice in the last 10 years. 07 was saved late. I don't remember what 04-05 was in these parts other than warm. Speculating is what we do but there really isn't anything special to speculate about. We'll know more come oct-nov. I'm starting to see a possibility of a Modoki development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm starting to see a possibility of a Modoki development. That's what we're all hoping for but this is where we are and a whole lotta stuff needs to happen. My technical analysis is the pretty oranges near the SA coast need to switch places with the hideous blues near the dateline with the quickness. Nobody predicted the current state at this point in time so going forward it needs to actually happen. We can't talk our way into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 That's what we're all hoping for but this is where we are and a whole lotta stuff needs to happen. My technical analysis is the pretty oranges near the SA coast need to switch places with the hideous blues near the dateline with the quickness. Nobody predicted the current state at this point in time so going forward it needs to actually happen. We can't talk our way into it. The problem is getting the good stuff to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I'm starting to see a possibility of a Modoki development. Are we sure we Modoki is what we want? 2009-2010 and 2002-2003 were not Modokis. I figure a more west-based traditional nino is actually better. I'm sure someone with more expertise can offer more insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Midoki is the the new Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 If we get any type of active southern stream, I think you might be able to double those numbers. No way it'll happen two years in a row. Of course, we would be getting there in a different way than last year, but I simply can't see it happening unless we get a lot of rain with a lot of snow thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 No way it'll happen two years in a row. Of course, we would be getting there in a different way than last year, but I simply can't see it happening unless we get a lot of rain with a lot of snow thrown in. We'll probably have some NAO help this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Here we go again.....the problem is normally precip not temps. Give me precip, I'll take my chances. You guys around and east of 95 probably need a more perfect scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The problem is getting the good stuff to come up. Those are anomalies, not actual temperatures. The *relative* subsurface warmth is a result of downwelling, not upwelling. The current kelvin wave should lead to future SST warming over the Niño domain(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Doesn't a classic Modoki Nino feature slightly above avg temps right along the east coast? Obviously lots of other features to factor in. A persistent -NAO would certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 My prediction for snow IMBY is 30.895". Who am I to argue with the likes of Big Joey B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 The forecasted nino is still totally in the crapper. I'm not betting on anything until things become more clear. Weak nino's are totally mixed looking back. Active ss could also mean rainy more than snowy. We've been there twice in the last 10 years. 07 was saved late. I don't remember what 04-05 was in these parts other than warm. Speculating is what we do but there really isn't anything special to speculate about. We'll know more come oct-nov. Both storms in late February 2005 underachieved. Pretty sure they were both true Miller A's that just didn't come together the way they looked they were going to as close as 12 hours before hey started. Both could've have easily been MECS only 4 days apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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