Deck Pic Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 10/28/14: 0.25" 12/5/14: 2.75" 12/24/14: 0.5" 1/23/14: 1.5" 2/9/15: 5.5" 2/19-21/15: 23.75" 2/22/15: 2.0" 3/25/15: 2.5" 4/20/15: 0.25" Total: 39.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I like it. If you get 2' from PD3, figure I'm good for 30"+. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 1/12 - 0.1" Total: 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 1/12 - 0.1" Total: 0.1" hater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 at this point, I'll say 25-35" total for BWI no guess for DCA or IAD updates to follow so check back bi-monthly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 hater To be fair it maybe should be like 0.4" if DCA gets 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 To be fair it maybe should be like 0.4" if DCA gets 0.1". what's it matter? CWG will go with the .1" and claim victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 To be fair it maybe should be like 0.4" if DCA gets 0.1". super nino would be fun...1hr west would probably get a 25" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 I think 12/29/97 and 3/3/98 were 8-12"+ storms far far north and west and there was a decent one in January..that winter was still crappy for most, but I think Manchester still managed 25" and the higher spots in the catoctins got 35-40+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'll go with 40" IMBY. If it's a super Nino, then probably 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'm thinking super nino + blocking + pv in canada. DCA: 26" BWI: 41" IAD: 52" Biggest storm: DCA: 13" BWI: 19" IAD: 23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'll lean a bit above climo, with most of the snow falling in one or two storms.. DCA: 20"...biggest 13" IAD: 35"...biggest 20" BWI: 30"...biggest 18" I'm not 100% sold on next winter yet. A legit El Niño and -QBO is generally as good as it gets for us based on the latest literature, but historically we need to avoid an active Sun to get the -NAO and +WPO in a -QBO. Otherwise we see years like 1972-73 and 1992-93 popping into the list. Good news is it looks like the Brewer-Dobson O^3 flux is healthy, especially when compared to the debacle of the 1980s/early 1990s, when Canadian warming events were much more common than they are now. Also, the Sun is not nearly as strong as it was then. So I think we avoid a 1997-98/1972-73 type deal, but may still see a period or two of warm, pacific air over running the continent with a +EPO, based on the fitting analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I do think we are headed for a nino but pretty skeptical of the mod+ or strong calls coming out. Not saying they are baseless in any way. Dynamical models are hinting but have their shortcomings. We were having a nino discussion this time last year for the 13-14 season. Enso 3.4 ended up trying hard to go nina during the winter. Strong ninos are also pretty rare. Leading into 14-15 will be much easier on the nerves no matter what happens because we aren't fighting a voodoo hex anymore. I'm mostly hoping to at least top climo one way or another. Been a while since back to backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 October - T-1" November - T-2" December - 6-10" January - 8-10" February - 25-30", superstorms March - 6-8" April - 4" finale Total - 45-50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 October - T-1" November - T-2" December - 6-10" January - 8-10" February - 25-30", superstorms March - 6-8" April - 4" finale Total - 38-44" Uh...check your math again on that total Chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Uh...check your math again on that total Chief. I went with the lower scale, but thanks for being a Math Nazi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 October - T-1" November - T-2" December - 6-10" January - 8-10" February - 25-30", superstorms March - 6-8" April - 4" finale Total - 43-50" I went with the lower scale, but thanks for being a Math Nazi. Rrriiiggghhhtttt... 6+8+25+6 = 45" for your lower scale not even counting April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Rrriiiggghhhtttt... 6+8+25+6 = 45" for your lower scale not even counting April Feel free not to read my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 His top scale is 65" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 His top scale is 65" lol. Internet tough guy alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 It's inevitable, making basic math mistakes and then calling people ***holes when they correct you is the way to go in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Feel free not to read my posts. Hey, you changed it! You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 It's inevitable, making basic math mistakes and then calling people ***holes when they correct you is the way to go in life. Never implied you were an a-hole, just an internet tough guy that trolls others without putting your money where your mouth is. Want to make a bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 What is going on in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 What is going on in here? we are discussing our HECS next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 What is going on in here? hurty hurtz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 we are discussing our HECS next winter You know it's coming. I expect a 24" storm and a 21" seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 You know it's coming. I expect a 24" storm and a 21" seasonal total. ha...I'm actually going to be pissed if we don't get an area wide 18-30" storm...2/12-13 sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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