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Predicted snow total and events for 2014-15 IMBY


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I'll lean a bit above climo, with most of the snow falling in one or two storms..

DCA: 20"...biggest 13"

IAD: 35"...biggest 20"

BWI: 30"...biggest 18"

I'm not 100% sold on next winter yet. A legit El Niño and -QBO is generally as good as it gets for us based on the latest literature, but historically we need to avoid an active Sun to get the -NAO and +WPO in a -QBO. Otherwise we see years like 1972-73 and 1992-93 popping into the list.

Good news is it looks like the Brewer-Dobson O^3 flux is healthy, especially when compared to the debacle of the 1980s/early 1990s, when Canadian warming events were much more common than they are now. Also, the Sun is not nearly as strong as it was then. So I think we avoid a 1997-98/1972-73 type deal, but may still see a period or two of warm, pacific air over running the continent with a +EPO, based on the fitting analogs.

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I do think we are headed for a nino but pretty skeptical of the mod+ or strong calls coming out. Not saying they are baseless in any way. Dynamical models are hinting but have their shortcomings. We were having a nino discussion this time last year for the 13-14 season. Enso 3.4 ended up trying hard to go nina during the winter. Strong ninos are also pretty rare.

Leading into 14-15 will be much easier on the nerves no matter what happens because we aren't fighting a voodoo hex anymore. I'm mostly hoping to at least top climo one way or another. Been a while since back to backs.

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October - T-1"

November - T-2"

December - 6-10"

January - 8-10"

February - 25-30", superstorms

March - 6-8"

April - 4" finale

 

Total - 43-50"

 

 

I went with the lower scale, but thanks for being a Math Nazi.

Rrriiiggghhhtttt...

6+8+25+6 = 45" for your lower scale not even counting April

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It's inevitable, making basic math mistakes and then calling people ***holes when they correct you is the way to go in life.

 

Never implied you were an a-hole, just an internet tough guy that trolls others without putting your money where your mouth is. Want to make a bet?

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