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April 12th-13th Severe Weather Thread


Quincy

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Not very enthusiastic about the TX storms. They have a kind of anemic look to them, not surprising given that the bulk of the vertical motion is off to the east, and a subsident regime is left behind. They reside in an impressive parameter space but the CINH with time and eastern direction will increase. Kinematic support is waning as well, not sure if there will be any enhancement of the LLJ after sunset. Between now and 01Z is the time for tornadoes to come from those storms before their updrafts get choked.

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Not very enthusiastic about the TX storms. They have a kind of anemic look to them, not surprising given that the bulk of the vertical motion is off to the east, and a subsident regime is left behind. They reside in an impressive parameter space but the CINH with time and eastern direction will increase. Kinematic support is waning as well, not sure if there will be any enhancement of the LLJ after sunset. Between now and 01Z is the time for tornadoes to come from those storms before their updrafts get choked.

 

Agree with this. They looked not bad for a little while there (especially the southernmost of the two), but their echoes are beginning to wane a little bit already. Their prime is probably already past.

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And just after I wrote my post, the Stephenville storm evaporates...

 

I haven't been following this event as closely, but from what I've seen in the latest HRRR and from discussions of HRRR in the previous posts, it pretty much bombed this event. NAM was actually not too bad, yesterday night's run and some runs before that showed convection S of the Metroplex and a break in and around it.

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That's a pretty decent looking, right moving cell south of Lone Grove, has become more isolated.

 

What is interesting to me is that the 00z SPC WRF had basically this exact thing at this time with a tail end charlie supercell in a very similar location.

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From yesterday's chase in and around Ardmore, OK:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca7mc5h9PW8&list=UUEXaLo_xhdnyk6JG_-WXvyA

 

Great catch! That storm had about the best structure I've ever seen from a storm along a "real" cold front (i.e., winterlike temps behind it and surging southward at the time). You sure deserved it, after taking such a monumental risk driving the length of the Plains for this iffy setup.

 

Unfortunately, I was baited south to the dryline, where I had been forecasting a better environment for days leading up. As I arrived on each storm (first one near Mineral Wells, second near Stephenville), they both rapidly fell to the cap within 15 minutes. Decided to cut my losses and ignore the third storm to the south, which then proceeded to last all evening. Oh well.

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Great catch! That storm had about the best structure I've ever seen from a storm along a "real" cold front (i.e., winterlike temps behind it and surging southward at the time). You sure deserved it, after taking such a monumental risk driving the length of the Plains for this iffy setup.

 

Unfortunately, I was baited south to the dryline, where I had been forecasting a better environment for days leading up. As I arrived on each storm (first one near Mineral Wells, second near Stephenville), they both rapidly fell to the cap within 15 minutes. Decided to cut my losses and ignore the third storm to the south, which then proceeded to last all evening. Oh well.

 

Thanks man.  Yes, it actually ended up being a fantastic trip.  We were able to watch the LP supercells in Kansas the day before and we got 3 separate beauties in OK on Sunday.  Some of the most incredible structure I've ever seen coupled with the lighting.  The driving never overwhelmed us... we were never that exhausted, and we just plain had fun.  We were able to sell enough footage to basically pay for the trip so all-in-all it was almost perfect and we got to test out our new setup.  It was also encouraging to note, that with Millenicom and the Wilson Sleek amp, we never once lost 4G.

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Thanks man.  Yes, it actually ended up being a fantastic trip.  We were able to watch the LP supercells in Kansas the day before and we got 3 separate beauties in OK on Sunday.  Some of the most incredible structure I've ever seen coupled with the lighting.  The driving never overwhelmed us... we were never that exhausted, and we just plain had fun.  We were able to sell enough footage to basically pay for the trip so all-in-all it was almost perfect and we got to test out our new setup.  It was also encouraging to note, that with Millenicom and the Wilson Sleek amp, we never once lost 4G.

 

Absolutely the best structure I've ever seen with the Ardmore storms. I would have loved to see a tornado, but just to have the warm weather, thunder, and a gorgeous storm after the winter we've had, it was totally worthwhile.

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