brettjrob Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 haha, pretty good argument at this rate. How are they doing so far? I was in the Hill Country around this time last year and there was still lots of brown... don't remember seeing many.Wonder how they'll take the hard freeze that's probably going to make it almost to the Gulf Coast by Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 haha, pretty good argument at this rate. How are they doing so far? I was in the Hill Country around this time last year and there was still lots of brown... don't remember seeing many. Wonder how they'll take the hard freeze that's probably going to make it almost to the Gulf Coast by Tuesday morning. Not a chance does a hard freeze even approach the Gulf Coast. Hell NWS FWD has their coldest temp at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Not a chance does a hard freeze even approach the Gulf Coast. Hell NWS FWD has their coldest temp at 38. 00z NAM says otherwise, in a big way. It very well may be overdone, but DFW is probably going to freeze and certainly go lower than 38 F. Latest SREF mean freezing line at 12z Tue runs roughly San Antonio to Tyler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 00z NAM says otherwise, in a big way. It very well may be overdone, but DFW is probably going to freeze and certainly go lower than 38 F. Latest SREF mean freezing line at 12z Tue runs roughly San Antonio to Tyler. It is an 84 hour projection off the NAM, lets be a bit more realistic, and the SREFs are just worse versions of the NAM at this range. Furthermore it is mid April the air will moderate some coming south, yes it will be cold but saying there will be hard freezing conditions along the Gulf Coast is unrealistic. Anything near or under 30 would be approaching all time monthly records for April for most of eastern and southern Texas. In other words the NAM is overzealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 So... Day 2 moderate in E OK with a fairly large hatched area eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Wow.... Day 2 MDT... and by Guyer too. Regarding N TX... it might end up cap busting but not in a traditional way. The shortwave is timed badly. It might be so fast it zips through by 0Z. Subsidence in its wake would hinder severe thunderstorm development during peak hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Not headed down for this event...wasn't even close at any point. Today will probably be a cap bust roughly south of I-70 in KS. Best case scenario is a few elevated storms develop for a short time during the late afternoon/early evening along the DL in KS/W. OK...with a wind/hail potential. Sunday obviously has the best potential of any of the upcoming days, but it's not worth touching either unless you live in the area. Surging ana-like-front, cap issues, increasingly bad terrain and metro areas...No thanks, not worth the risk for a one day haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Wow.... Day 2 MDT... and by Guyer too. Sounds like it's for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Sounds like it's for hail. It is, the last sentence highlights it as such. OVERALL...FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES /45-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD EVOLVE BY EVENING IN MOST AREAS...WITH NEAR-COLD FRONTAL STORMS STEADILY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT /FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST/. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO THE DOMINANT HAZARD OVERALL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT INCLUDING EASTERN OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MO/AR/NORTH TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Also, something to watch in future runs as we get into the NAM's "more reliable" range is the fact that it's had a secondary sfc low develop on almost every run since Sunday night/Monday morning came into its range (at least since yesterday's 06z run). That would likely drive an overnight and Monday threat (not sure of the degree) from the Arklatex to the TN Valley. Noticed this as well, wouldn't be the first time with this rodeo in Dixie. 21z/03z SREF actually hits harder in LA into the Lower MS Valley after dark into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 We got an absolute masterpiece of an AFD from Cavanaugh in FWD this morning. It's a fantastic read but I won't paste the whole thing since it's 20 paragraphs long. Just go read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NTXYankee Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 We got an absolute masterpiece of an AFD from Cavanaugh in FWD this morning. It's a fantastic read but I won't paste the whole thing since it's 20 paragraphs long. Just go read it. Read that this morning too, a lot of analysis put into it regarding model output, atmospheric thinking, etc. I may not understand a lot about weather, especially down here, but it is nice to see a forecaster put thought and logic into it rather than just say "well this is what the models say, so that is it". I still think the DFW area could be a surprise just like April 3rd. Believe this will all come down to nowcasting, as none of the models with the exception of the Euro to some extent had the placement of dryline and storm initiation correct on the 3rd for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 It is, the last sentence highlights it as such. Sounding's also have a look that's supportive of some pretty large hail across E OK/NW AR once the frontal/dryline forcing moves through. Going to be tough to pull off discrete convection with the EML/high LCL's but once the dryline advances things should get interesting with that hydrolapse signature in addition to some impressive shear params to tap into. You do have a bit of a VBR signature, but its not very pronounced on the latest runs of the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 in addition to some impressive shear params to tap into. You do have a bit of a VBR signature, but its not very pronounced on the latest runs of the NAM/GFS. nice sounding. I see the 12z NAM has about 500 m2/s2 of helicity, east of OKC tomorrow evening. 500mb winds are only 30 knots at the same place as the 500 helicity-- I did a forecast sounding (Wewoka, Oklahoma) I think this would be the type of forecast sounding for HP supercells that lack the strong 0-6km shear to stay in supercell mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Definitely seems like this is going to be a big hail event with a few tornadoes thrown in to make it interesting. Although parameters don't seem particularly good for numerous tornadoes, I do think they'll be a few. Looking at all the info right now, it seems an area to the east of OKC and just north of I40 up to about 412 could prove very interesting tomorrow. We're halfway through April and so far its been slow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 DP's range from the mid-30's to low-50's along the DL in N. Oklahoma and S-C. Kansas...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 DP's range from the mid-30's to low-50's along the DL in N. Oklahoma and S-C. Kansas...lol I think that will change by tomorrow...we'll have mid 60s out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Funnel cloud reported with supercell up near Topeka. Also dropping 2" hail. 85/58 feeding into it, so pretty high based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 For Sunday afternoon, the latest NAM and GFS are showing/trending toward rather strongly veered low-level winds (almost as bad as in the last system) along the dry line in N-ctrl TX and S-ctrl OK, so meh for those areas. On the other hand, the substantial hail threat still looks on track. LL winds this afternoon in nern IL have also ended up more veered than on the past several NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Funnel cloud reported with supercell up near Topeka. Also dropping 2" hail. 85/58 feeding into it, so pretty high based. I'm at my parents in Milford, KS and caught the beginning of the TCU of that storm. It's to the northeast now, seeing tons of lightning. Here's the pictures of the TCU taken a little over an hour ago. And this one was taken maybe 20 minutes later, blew up quick: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Well as of Sunday it will be the second longest drought of tornadoes in Oklahoma since 1990-91 where it was 248 days. We have a shot to tie it if we get one tomorrow otherwise welcome to number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 I imagine there will be at least a few tornadoes in eastern OK/eastern TX tomorrow, but not sure how extensive the event ends up being. As others have stated, not the best timing for upper level features. With that said, still seeing some solid kinematic support coupled with moderate instability. Some capping and hints of some veer-back-veer in the low levels. Some of the soundings look fairly unidirectional in the lowest 0.5km. Hodographs not as large and circular as you'd hope to see for a major tornado threat. Some mixed signals, but we'll see how it plays out. Just saying there are a few red flags. I think SPC is on target with only a marginal small-scale MDT risk at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Some of the forecast soundings from the 0Z NAM in N TX for 0Z tmrw don't look half bad. Too bad they're not going to come true because a) the capping will be stronger than models predict, as usual; b ) the cold front will come crashing down faster than the models predict, as usual; c) moisture will probably mix out a little more than models predict, as usual; d) whatever negative impact morning/early aftn elevated convection has will linger longer than models predict, as usual. But taken face value, those soundings definitely show the potential this event has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Regardless of what actually happens tomorrow, this event could be so much more if only the shortwave was six hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Regardless of what actually happens tomorrow, this event could be so much more if only the shortwave was six hours slower. Pretty much prophetic: Hopefully the issue that screwed us over last time -- slower ejection than progged -- will help us this time around. Then again by Murphy's Law that's probably not going to happen, lol. Then again, it's all too easy a call these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Cold fronts usually crash south much quicker to the west of I-35 than to the east of I-35. I don't think undercutting will be an issue to the east/northeast of Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Starting to grasp at straws, but FWIW, the 00z RGEM lights up the dryline along I-35 in N TX. It did a good job of depicting CI in NW TX on 4/2 when some of the other guidance (*cough* NAM) didn't. Granted, the 00z GFS also says no, and emphatically at that with nasty low-level veering. Another forecasting headache similar to 4/3 in some respects: the probability of CI well away from the front is iffy at best, but the environment would support a substantial tornado threat given a sustained storm. Farther NE in and around the current MDT, the anafrontal tendency means the tornado probability is relatively low, but every now and then surprises happen in that regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 FWD AFD stating if elevated convection comes together later tonight with the earlier disturbance, capping will be less of a problem later. Now about those veering winds..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I'm beginning to think Monday in the SE might be the bigger of the two threats... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I'm beginning to think Monday in the SE might be the bigger of the two threats... Certainly possible, central and southern MS/AL and eastern LA look pretty good on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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