Geos Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Only a 30% chance of snow in my grid today and 50% tonight. I hope DTW can break that record. You're so close it would be ashame to fall short now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 95% certain DTW breaks the record but it'll sting pretty bad if you guys end up within 0.2" or 0.3" of the record. It's like swimming across Lk Huron and drowning 3 feet away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Dtx breaking the record could easily come down to observer judgement at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 radar returns look good for just over DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 radar returns look good for just over DAB Yeah some places will squeeze out a half inch on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 From DTX's afternoon. AFD: MEANWHILE, EXTREMELY LOW STATIC STABILITY COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL STRONGLY FAVOR A LOWER PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE BECOMING ACTIVE AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET RACES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION THEN BECOMES EXACT PLACEMENT AND JUST HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN COOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, INCLUDING METRO DETROIT. SYNOPTICALLY, ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 05Z, WITH THE METRO AREA CHANGING OVER LAST. THIS EXPECTATION IS COMPLICATED, HOWEVER, BY THE FACT THAT POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG ASCENT WILL AID IN COOLING THE COLUMN AND MAY ALLOW AN EARLIER CHANGEOVER DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INTRODUCES BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERACHIEVING FROM THE METRO AREA SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RESULTANT LATENT HEATING TO WARM THE COLUMN ABOVE FREEZING. UNFORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THAT EVALUATION OF THE EXACT NATURE OF PRECIP OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL HAVE TO BE AN ONGOING PROCESSES THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE FAVOR A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD FORECAST FOR ACCUMS TO ALLOW FOR LATER REFINEMENTS EITHER UP OR DOWN. AS FOR FORECAST AMOUNTS, WEAKER FORCING AND A WET GROUND/STANDING WATER WILL LIMIT SNOW RATIOS INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL TIMING, DRIER GROUND, AND HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO 12:1. GENERALLY EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO 3 INCHES FROM THE METRO AREA SOUTH. COULD CERTAINLY SEE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH PER HOUR ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER ON A LOCAL BASIS. FOLLOWED AN ARW/NMM BLEND FOR QPF AMOUNTS DUE TO GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH LARGER SCALE MODELS AND THEIR SIMILAR HANDING OF FINE SCALE FEATURES, PARTICULARLY INVOF THE METROPOLITIAN AREA. THE FORECAST IN ITS CURRENT FORM CALLS FOR BREAKING THE ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON AT BOTH DETROIT AND FLINT (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 After non-accumulating type stuff all day the last 15-20 mins we've had a higher rate of snow that has actually started to whiten up the grassy areas. Pretty impressive for mid-April during the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 I would take a hit on this one just to get that record in Detroit. I'm hoping DTW gets the 3 inches they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 I would take a hit on this one just to get that record in Detroit. I'm hoping DTW gets the 3 inches they need. DTW needs to 1.9" to tie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 radar returns look good for just over DAB UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Pixie dust flurries falling here in Racine. Actually been that way for two hours. Too warm to stick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 I would take a hit on this one just to get that record in Detroit. I'm hoping DTW gets the 1.9 inches they need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Hard for me to get excited as everything system/event has been a major under-performer IMBY since March 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Whitening up pretty good on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 returns looks healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Yeah the snow was pretty light for the most part, but those enhanced bands were a different story. Looks like there's more of them now too. Now that it's getting later in the day the snow should stick a bit easier for you guys further east. EDIT: Had about 7hrs of steady snowfall at varying rates. A nice farewell bang from winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Looks about as white as it did after the hail this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Wow, was a little skeptical it would happen. But it really is coming down here. Nice fat flakes too. Grass is turning white quickly. Windshield wiper blades froze up on the drive home. 80° 48 hours ago is a distant memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Good news seeing that for us record chasers to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Grass is white here, but that's about the only surface cold enough - except the trees. Just a tad above 0°C Will post pics later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Surprisingly, not a terrible lake-effect set-up either: Low levels are a bit dry, but the thermodynamic environment is there. 850's around -12 C with the lake probably having warmed to at least 2-3 C by now...that could at least get something going. And the flow isn't bad either, although winds back pretty sharply just above the EL. The HRRR and IWX WRF were giving a few hundredths to Lake County IN earlier today. Certainly not your normal April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Snow falling at a moderate rate right now. Coating the roof tops that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 So, who wants to tailgate in front of the DTW's OBS station tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 The back edge of the heaviest precip near I-39 should be interesting if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 I only need 0.2" to hit 100" for the season. As usual, the SREF plumes are good for some nice accumulations. For CLE the mean is 4.1", but incredibly the LOWEST member is a still respectable (by mid April standards) 1.75 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 So, who wants to tailgate in front of the DTW's OBS station tonight? I'm game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Have had -SN for the past several hours...Now up to SN. Looks like a couple tenths out there so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Moderate snow right now. Probably .3" out there now. Temp is holding at 32. Decent flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 Have had -SN for the past several hours...Now up to SN. Looks like a couple tenths out there so far. Posted 9 April 2014 - 12:44 PM "Non-event for just about everyone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 14, 2014 Share Posted April 14, 2014 So, who wants to tailgate in front of the DTW's OBS station tonight? That would be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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