Powerball Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 0z NAM 041514snow_NAM.jpg Terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 The snow aspect will all depend on the progression of the trough. The NAM seems to be an outlier and I am not buying it; however; it is does show the potential if things slow down which is not unusual this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Terrible model. None of the models are really big on accumulations, so the NAM is in line. Although it is pretty terrible at this range. Bo will probably get the most of out this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Low confidence in any particular solution right now when it comes to placement of potential snow band. Though generally speaking, should the snowier scenario pan out, rates will have to be pretty good to allow for accumulation given the time of year and what is/will be warm/wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Low confidence in any particular solution right now when it comes to placement of potential snow band. Though generally speaking, should the snowier scenario pan out, rates will have to be pretty good to allow for accumulation given the time of year and what is/will be warm/wet ground. If you believe the NAM (which wouldn't be a good thing to do), the window for accumulating snow will be during late night/early morning hours, which will help to mitigate the melting on contact that would take place, say, during peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 If you believe the NAM (which wouldn't be a good thing to do), the window for accumulating snow will be during late night/early morning hours, which will help to mitigate the melting on contact that would take place, say, during peak heating. That would help. Even here the timing looks like it would be mostly after dark. This is looking like it might be more of a 14th-15th deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 GFS starting to go back toward a snowier solution...not like the earlier crazy runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Nice seeing this on the text output no matter the time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I'm expecting 1-2" of rain and then 3-5" of wet snow on the back end. More than enough to put Ptown (Petoskey) past its record of 183.9". rivers running very high already so should see some flooding as well. snow still deep on north facing hills but beginning to show grass in other areas. Average snow in my yard 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 IWX talks about the s word in their disco for Monday night and briefly discusses climatology at SBN. OTHERWISE...CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LEAST ON GRASSY AREAS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SEQUENCE OF ECMWF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE CLIMATE DATABASE STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO MID APRIL OVER NORTHWEST AREAS WITH NEARLY 10 INCHES OF SNOW ON APRIL 16 AND 17 OF 1961 AT SOUTH BEND. THE LATEST WPC OUTLOOK/HAZARDS STILL REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...TOOK OUT THE MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND REPLACED WITH JUST SNOW GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C PER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. the winter of 1960-61 was a horrendous winter in Detroit, and pretty bad throughout the region in general when most everyone saw below to well below normal snowfall while the east coast was having an epic winter. This April 16-17 storm was actually the biggest storm of the season of Detroit's pathetic 18.0" winter with 3.0" falling (previous highest storm had been 2.9). I read an article on it saying that while the snow was a heavier consistency in Detroit, southwestern MI had terrible blowing and drifting which led to by far worse travel conditions than at any point during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I just want 0.4" out of this so FNT can break the snow record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 12, 2014 Author Share Posted April 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 I just want 0.4" out of this so FNT can break the snow record. If the NAM and GFS are correct, that should be a lock. It just needs to fall, not necessarily accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 If the NAM and GFS are correct, that should be a lock. It just needs to fall, not necessarily accumulate. those models show temps rapidly fallin through the 30s and 20s if its snowing. If it pans out as such, it will be white Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 those models show temps rapidly fallin through the 30s and 20s if its snowing. If it pans out as such, it will be white Tuesday morning. Hoping DTW and FNT can get enough to break the records ... we'll see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 1-3" is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 00z NAM continues to look kinda interesting as it's hinting at some instability aloft. Forecast soundings even suggest a brief period of sleet (ugh) here before the change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 The NAM has a 300+mb DGZ and produces 2-3" of snow Monday night haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Yeah will see if this holds... local 6" amount in lower MI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 00z NAM continues to look kinda interesting as it's hinting at some instability aloft. Forecast soundings even suggest a brief period of sleet (ugh) here before the change to snow. Seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Measurable snows at Lafayette on or after April 10, starting with the latest. Should we receive measurable snow with this, it would rank in the top 10 latest occurrences since records began in 1887. 5/9/1923: 1.5" 5/7/1989: 0.3" 4/23-24/1910: 2.2" 4/18/1901: 1.0" 4/18/1926: 6.5" 4/17/1953: 1.0" 4/15-17/1961: 3.0" 4/15/1986: 0.3" 4/14/1904: 0.7" 4/14/1943: 0.9" 4/14-15/1980: 1.2" 4/14/2007: 0.5" 4/13-14/1907: 2.5" 4/13/1962: 0.4" 4/12-13/1940: 2.4" 4/12/2007: 0.2" 4/11/1900: 1.0" 4/11/1904: 0.1" 4/11-12/1946: 0.2" 4/10/1973: 0.1" 4/10/1997: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 4/15-17/1961: 3.0" COOP amounts for this system are higher than LAF's measurement. I was just looking at this one because IWX mentioned it the other day. Lafayette 8 S: 5.4" West Lafayette 6 NW: 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 COOP amounts for this system are higher than LAF's measurement. I was just looking at this one because IWX mentioned it the other day. Lafayette 8 S: 5.4" West Lafayette 6 NW: 5.0" I know. I used the airport data whenever possible, COOPs when LAF was missing data and also prior to 1943. The 2007 total was my own though, and now that I think of it, wasn't there another measurable snow around April 10 or 11 of 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 I know. I used the airport data whenever possible, COOPs when LAF was missing data and also prior to 1943. The 2007 total was my own though, and now that I think of it, wasn't there another measurable snow around April 10 or 11 of 2007? Gotcha. The April 1961 storm was quite interesting though. I have a little write up in the process about that one, hopefully to be posted tomorrow. April 12, 2007 I measured 0.2" for us. Last snow on my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 Gotcha. The April 1961 storm was quite interesting though. I have a little write up in the process about that one, hopefully to be posted tomorrow. Looking forward to it. It was an impressive storm by mid April standards. 4/18/1926 is probably the only one that can hang with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2014 Author Share Posted April 13, 2014 I guess if I had to take crack at this for here right now I'd go with wording like "up to an inch possible mainly on grassy/colder surfaces." It's a quick hitter with warm/wet ground but timing looks good with it being an after dark situation which should help. Per Tim's stats, need 0.7" to get to 75" for the season and it would be nice to reach that mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 Getting very interested in Monday night now. With the warm ground (a phrase not said once all winter ) I could see accumulations hindered on the pavement a bit, but its interesting in that for the first time in my life, Im wondering if we may see better than 10-1 ratios with April snow!? Per the NAM and GFS, snow is falling with temps rapidly dropping into the 20s, and it will be during the nighttime hours as well. Looked back at my personal records, which started in 1995-96. Measurable snow after April 10th since 1996 IMBY April 11, 2000........0.2" (slushy, grass only) April 17, 2001........0.2" (slushy, grass only) April 21, 2002........0.1" (sleet) April 23-24, 2005...6.7" (very wet snow...nearly 1" liquid as pure snow (stm total more, began as rain), mostly accum on grass, some slush pavement, gone by noon 4/25) May 3, 2005...........0.1" (0.02" liquid, very brief white on grass only) April 14, 2007........0.4" (0.04" liquid, grass only, brielfy froze solid overnight but melted quickly as sun rose) April 18, 2011........1.3" (0.17" liquid, morning snow, grass only, melted in the afternoon except for few slush patches) April 20, 2013........0.1" (0.02" liquid, woke to frozen dusting on grass and rooftops) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 If the NAM and GFS are correct, that should be a lock. It just needs to fall, not necessarily accumulate. Both models are still showing around 3 inches...let's hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 C and NE WI might need a winter weather advisory tomorrow morning, NAM drops .4" of qpf on GRB with a couple hours of heavy snow. Down here, I'm interested in Monday night, we might be too far north but one more day of measurable snow ties the record for most in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 13, 2014 Share Posted April 13, 2014 12z RGEM has two stripes/areas of 0.40-0.60" "liquid equivalent" snowfall. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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