April 13-15 Snow Threat

[Powerball]

May 21/22, 1883...5.0"

 

I would probably slit my wrist if that happens today (no joke).

 

And it's funny because on May 23, 2011 (a day later), we had a Severe Weather Outbreak here with temps in the 80s, then a significant flood on May 25, 2011.

[Hoosier]

Chicagos numbers are surprisingly low.

 

Detroit 1"+ snowstorms on or after April 14th. Several more instances had amounts under an inch as well, and several others were 1"+ a day or two before April 14th.

 

May 21/22, 1883...5.0"

April 14/15, 1885...1.5"

April 15, 1893........2.5"

April 14/15, 1904...1.6"

April 29, 1909........3.0"

April 22, 1911........1.0"

May 13, 1912........1.5"

April 17, 1921........4.5"

April 14, 1923........2.2"

May 9, 1923...........6.0"

April 16, 1943........2.0"

April 19/20, 1943...3.5"

April 16, 1947........1.9"

April 19/20, 1947...1.6"

April 16/17, 1961...3.0"

April 23/24, 1967...1.7"

April 14/15, 1980...1.3"

April 17, 1983........3.4"

April 23/24, 2005...4.3"

April 18, 2011........1.6"

 

 

Quite a difference between the 2 locations.  Not sure why it's so pronounced.  I think the warming lake probably starts to become a factor although a number of those events happened when the official site was more in the heart of the city/closer to the lake.  Would be interesting to look at a more inland location like Rockford to see if there's a big difference. 

[michsnowfreak]

I would probably slit my wrist if that happens today (no joke).

 

And it's funny because on May 23, 2011 (a day later), we had a Severe Weather Outbreak here with temps in the 80s, then a significant flood on May 25, 2011.

Somewhere I have an old newspaper clipping on the 1883 snow. Flakes flew as far as northern Kentucky, and I believe somewhere in northern OH had a foot of snow. It caused problems as all the trees were fully leafed out.

[Geos]

Sorry to say Geos ...but it looks like someone will be seeing several inches of snow with this. The band placement changes run to run, model to model, but consensus for someone to get a mid-April snowstorm is quite high at this stage. BTW...rates make all the difference this time of year. If you get heavy snow, it would stick in June

 

In June it wouldn't last real long! Probably an hour or two.

 

Anyways, the GFS backed off the high amounts. DGZ really lacks like Stebo & Hoosier said.

 

Local mets just going for a mix to end the system precipitation. Will definitely be a cold day for mid April standards.

[Boogieman]

I would probably slit my wrist if that happens today (no joke).

 

And it's funny because on May 23, 2011 (a day later), we had a Severe Weather Outbreak here with temps in the 80s, then a significant flood on May 25, 2011.

I'm really trying not to think about the "f' word mentioned there... I've already had three floods to clean up downstairs this month. I've completely cleaned the inlets on the pump, tested the backflow preventer, redone the plumbing to 2" pipes all the way out and rerouted the outlet to the very rear of my property. Did that all three days ago, including placing some bricks in the sump pit to stop the pump from walking up to the edge and trapping the float on the corrugations. So, hopefully, I won't have to deal with any more flooding.

[michsnowfreak]

In June it wouldn't last real long! Probably an hour or two.

 

Anyways, the GFS backed off the high amounts. DGZ really lacks like Stebo & Hoosier said.

 

Local mets just going for a mix to end the system precipitation. Will definitely be a cold day for mid April standards.

Oh for sure. Any snow isnt going to last long period, until next Nov or Dec. I was just pointing out that heavy snow will accumulate no matter what. They had day time accumulations last May 1st or 2nd in Kansas City, and it wasnt even heavy snow, just moderate. Of course it doesnt last long...but should be interesting to see who gets what.

[Geos]

Oh for sure. Any snow isnt going to last long period, until next Nov or Dec. I was just pointing out that heavy snow will accumulate no matter what. They had day time accumulations last May 1st or 2nd in Kansas City, and it wasnt even heavy snow, just moderate. Of course it doesnt last long...but should be interesting to see who gets what.

 

It's fine if it wants to snow a little, but it doesn't look like the right kind of system to produce anything like 04/11/07 (5.9").

 

It's a fact that late snows helps the grass green up. Snow traps nitrogen and it slowly releases it as it melts into the ground - unlike rain.

[TimChgo9]

I most definitely do not want this one, at all.  Praying for rain...

[michsnowfreak]

It's fine if it wants to snow a little, but it doesn't look like the right kind of system to produce anything like 04/11/07 (5.9").

 

It's a fact that late snows helps the grass green up. Snow traps nitrogen and it slowly releases it as it melts into the ground - unlike rain.

It clearly looks like the kind of system that can produce a nice swath of snow somewhere. Its wishcasting if you say it doesnt . However...its completely up in the air as to WHERE that swath of snow hits.

[Harry]

What a disgusting track the euro has. Thank god it is not king of the hill anymore.

[dmc76]

I most definitely do not want this one, at all. Praying for rain...

As soon as one person from Chicago posts something like this you guys all follow the same kind of posts. Yea

[michsnowfreak]

As soon as one person from Chicago posts something like this you guys all follow the same kind of posts. Yea

I do have to admit its funny to see people hoping for rain and stuff. By all means send the snow to Detroit and let me hit 100" . It would be cool to see so late in the season, it will add to this winters epic snowfall totals...and it will be completely melted in a day. Its not like we are descending back into winter lol.

[Geos]

I do have to admit its funny to see people hoping for rain and stuff. By all means send the snow to Detroit and let me hit 100" . It would be cool to see so late in the season, it will add to this winters epic snowfall totals...and it will be completely melted in a day. Its not like we are descending back into winter lol.

 

You have a much better chance of breaking the record. Chicago does not. Except to set the new 2nd snowiest season on record.

 

6z GFS now shoves the snow pretty far west and north.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

 

If it does snow, I hope it doesn't too much since I had flowers and ferns coming up out of the ground now.

[Brewers]

So I see the Euro is once again  showing plenty of snow for WI and N IL...

[Geos]

So I see the Euro is once again  showing plenty of snow for WI and N IL...

 

Marginal temps though in N IL between 32-35°during the event. At least on Wxbell maps...

 

Upon closer inspection the 850mb temps are too warm up until between 108-114hr. By the time the mid levels get cold enough at 114 its the middle of the day and the surface is above freezing.

[Chicago Storm]

I do have to admit its funny to see people hoping for rain and stuff.

How is it funny?

We're closing in on mid-April...and most people would rather see full spring-like weather at this point.

Not everyone is a die-hard icepussy like yourself.

[Stevo6899]

How is it funny?

We're closing in on mid-April...and most people would rather see full spring-like weather at this point.

Not everyone is a die-hard icepussy like yourself.

Is it really necessary to call names? Over the computer no less? You wouldnt say that to his face in real life. Everyone likes different things and if its going to be chilly, almost everyone would take a snowstorm over rain in early april. You need an attitude adjustment. Stop being such a do%&he.

[michsnowfreak]

Is it really necessary to call names? Over the computer no less? You wouldnt say that to his face in real life. Everyone likes different things and if its going to be chilly, almost everyone would take a snowstotm over rain in early april. You need an attitude adjustment. Stop being such a do%&he.

he always has an attitude. Im not even the one who brought it up, I just agreed with dmc. I have no problem if spring springs and doesn't look back (id actually like to fast forward thru all the allergy suffering of the spring bloom right to summer)....I was saying that its interesting that someone would prefer a cold, miserable rain over a snow that melts as soon as it stops falling. The next day would look the same outside regardless (grass starting to green, buds appearing, etc), the difference being the day before you suffered through a typical spring cold rain that chills you to the bone anyway....or a rare mid-April snowstorm. If it was the other way around, the Michigan posters would get blasted for rooting on a cold rain over an anomalous storm.

[Geos]

12z GFS shows a complete miss to the south of GRB.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

 

GGEM

 

[MidwestChaser]

Is it really necessary to call names? Over the computer no less? You wouldnt say that to his face in real life. Everyone likes different things and if its going to be chilly, almost everyone would take a snowstorm over rain in early april. You need an attitude adjustment. Stop being such a do%&he.

 

Shhh..it's ok.

 

[Chicago Storm]

Is it really necessary to call names? Over the computer no less? You wouldnt say that to his face in real life. Everyone likes different things and if its going to be chilly, almost everyone would take a snowstorm over rain in early april. You need an attitude adjustment. Stop being such a do%&he.

nice overreaction.

and no, almost everyone wouldn't take snow over rain in mid-april.

[Harry]

I'll take a ice ***** any day over a stinky sweaty crotch. You people need to get some new material.

 

nice overreaction.

and no, almost everyone wouldn't take snow over rain in mid-april.

 

 

Then stay the out of the thread? How hard is that? The only one who overreacted was you with your ice ***** crap. PLEASE go and post that garbage in the mid atlantic or one of those sub forums and then let us know how it works out for you.  This is no different then people jumping into a severe thread and pissing on it because OMG people could die or whatever. The weather is gonna do whatever the heck it wants. It is April and can still snow, be hot, or whatever else so jumping into these threads to piss and moan about snow is not gonna change it. Josh was spot on about it being funny with the complaining about it. BTW that is what the complaint thread is for.

[DAFF]

^{All of my monthly contracts run till April 15th for winter services, till then its fair game for snow. My machines are still in the city ready for another blast just in case.}

[TimChgo9]

It's going to do whatever it's going to do..... I'll just have to deal with whatever happens.  Snow in April, for me, anyway, is a depressing thought. ..

 

Snow.. it's so February.....

 

But, if you are looking forward to it.... then, enjoy.

[Harry]

It's going to do whatever it's going to do..... I'll just have to deal with whatever happens.  Snow in April, for me, anyway, is a depressing thought. ..

 

Snow.. it's so February.....

 

But, if you are looking forward to it.... then, enjoy.

 

 

April has always been one of those month's i really just don't care what happens. This is not the deep south so yeah stuff like this can and does happen in THIS region. I'll enjoy the 70 degree weather on Saturday ( i'll be at a wedding ) and if it snows on Monday i'll be okay with it. Life will go on regardless of what it does. People on this forum love talking about all kinds of weather and that is never gonna change so if a particular thread is not of your interest then it is best to just avoid it. As said we have a complaint thread for complaining.

[Geos]

6z NAM has a few thin stripes of snow on it for this event. 6z GFS backed off the amounts and restricts them to the upper Midwest/UP.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

[IWXwx]

IWX talks about the s word in their disco for Monday night and briefly discusses climatology at SBN.

 

OTHERWISE...CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LEAST ON GRASSY AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SEQUENCE OF ECMWF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG
THE FRONT. THE CLIMATE DATABASE STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO MID APRIL OVER NORTHWEST AREAS WITH NEARLY 10
INCHES OF SNOW ON APRIL 16 AND 17 OF 1961 AT SOUTH BEND. THE LATEST
WPC OUTLOOK/HAZARDS STILL REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...TOOK
OUT THE MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND REPLACED WITH JUST SNOW GIVEN
850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C PER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

[Geos]

The big question is whether the colder air will act to dry out the back edge of the precipitation shield or will it mix with it? Last couple runs haven't looked promising for much snow. Right now local mets and the grid forecast is just going for a mix - nothing more.

[Geos]

0z NAM

 

[Hoosier]

IWX talks about the s word in their disco for Monday night and briefly discusses climatology at SBN.

 

OTHERWISE...CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT LEAST ON GRASSY AREAS

MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SEQUENCE OF ECMWF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG

THE FRONT. THE CLIMATE DATABASE STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL INTO MID APRIL OVER NORTHWEST AREAS WITH NEARLY 10

INCHES OF SNOW ON APRIL 16 AND 17 OF 1961 AT SOUTH BEND. THE LATEST

WPC OUTLOOK/HAZARDS STILL REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...TOOK

OUT THE MIX OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND REPLACED WITH JUST SNOW GIVEN

850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -8C PER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

 

 

The Storm Data entry for Indiana is quite impressive for that one.  Mentions hundreds of vehicles abandoned and drifts up to 10 feet in some areas.