PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 I can't believe there isn't a thread for this yet!Today through tonight looks very interesting along the Gulf Coast. It's very rare that I see areas like Pensacola where I'm at to have a 10% hatched for significant tornadoes. The projected helicity and shear values are a bit concerning and conditions in general look very favorable for numerous super cells to develop.What I'm most worried about is a significant tornado coming through a populated area while people are sleeping. Down here there are no tornado sirens to wake people up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 There's a thread in the Central States subforum but it has 4 replies and this thread will likely get more disco I'd imagine as storms will impact SE as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Saved this from the CIPS Top 8 analogs from 4/02 12z GFS run. Not bad, bubble with 60% chance of severe report several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 6, 2014 Author Share Posted April 6, 2014 Central forum? That's weird. I guess for Texas but the worst weather is going to be on the Gulf coast. Interesting graphic. The bullseye should probably be a little larger and farther east as per SPC graphic but interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 Cape looks to build north over today and tonight as the sun stirs things up this afternoon. That momentum will press into tomorrow giving GA, SC, and eastern NC the best threat of severe. Current: Severe storm development looks to be most favorable over the tip of LA, S MS, and AL around noon tomorrow with cape levels ranging between 500-1000. As the afternoon progresses cape levels build over GA, the eastern half of SC, and parts of eastern NC. Columbia, SC looks to have cape levels of 750-1000. Here is the 12z GFS lift index currently. Extreme areas of S GA and N FL are currently experiencing the most lift but that will push north overnight as the system pushes ashore. 12z GFS Lift Index for Tomorrow around 6pm. You can see favorable lift in SC, GA, and S AL. These areas have good potential to see hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 6, 2014 Share Posted April 6, 2014 12z NAM 4km WRF...strongest CAPE goes hand in hand with new SPC slight risk staying in SE NC for the most part. Maxed at 1407 J/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 6, 2014 Author Share Posted April 6, 2014 Mesoscale Discussion out for the Gulf Coast from roughly Lafayette to Panama City and extending as far north as about Hattiesburg. Looks like in the next few hours we can expect development of supercellular thunderstorms as the warm front lifts northwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 here we go: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0300.html DISCUSSION...THE 00Z LCH SOUNDING REVEALED MLCAPE NEAR 1800 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70-72 F BELOW 7 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF APPARENTLY SURFACE-BASED STORMS NEAR LAFAYETTE MAY BE SIGNALING A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THE TORNADO RISK...COINCIDENT WITH THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUING TO EXPAND INLAND. GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY...STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT /AND ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Supercells FINALLY getting going over SE LA... it took longer than expected, but they're occurring with a few Severe warned. No Tornado warneds yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Tornado Warning now in South Central Alabama. 999 WFUS54 KMOB 071110 TORMOB ALC013-035-099-071200- /O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0015.140407T1110Z-140407T1200Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 610 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL 700 AM CDT * AT 606 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF MONROEVILLE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PETERMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE... PETERMAN... THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 131. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. && LAT...LON 3181 8657 3141 8718 3154 8732 3183 8697 3183 8691 3188 8691 3197 8680 3197 8673 TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 229DEG 35KT 3153 8717 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 2.55" so far 48 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Cell to the east of Montgomery, AL near Tuskegee is really beginning to wrap up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a TOR warning placed on that at some point in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 3.15" now in the train line...ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Saw 1 CoCoRaHS report this morning of over 6" in Jefferson Co., AL. Lots of 4"-5" reports as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 it's been raining all morning here and just heard a loud clap of thunder at work in north Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Tornado Warning for Berrien Co., Irwin Co. and Tift Co. GA. It appears to be a halfway decent couplet but is embedded in the line so it should be rain wrapped. Currently this looks to only be radar indicated without any ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Cape creeping up over the central and southern coastal plains of NC but not sure if it will matter, plenty of shear available if anything vertical can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Really quiet in here. Looks like the action is picking up in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Tornado watch issued for costal areas of the Southeast and Waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Well radar is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Well radar is interesting. Waycross looks to have a pretty prime atmosphere for severe development. 1000 cape overtop with decent shear. I don't think this one is going to fizzle out on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Waycross looks to have a pretty prime atmosphere for severe development. 1000 cape overtop with decent shear. I don't think this one is going to fizzle out on you. We will see. I'm going watching radar closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Well the front seems to be just to my west, Bozart's weather station is at 60 and its 75 on my back porch and he is 17 miles to my WNW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL AND NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 071850Z - 072015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...WEAK HEATING/MOISTENING IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF NC...WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WE ARE MONITORING TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING SHORT-TERM RISK -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STEADILY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE ALLOWING MODEST HEATING...SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EVIDENT. A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA -- PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK UVV ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE CIRCULATION MOVING OFF THE SERN VA COAST ATTM. GIVEN A BACKGROUND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OR ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS EVIDENT AS THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THAT SAID...LIMITED AREAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF ANY ENHANCED THREAT MAY LIMIT THE NEED FOR WW ISSUANCE IN THE ABSENCE OF AN UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS/MEAD.. 04/07/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The little cell over Washington NC has a broad area of rotation with it ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Looks like I was lucky to have great weather at the OBX this past weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The little cell over Washington NC has a broad area of rotation with it ..... Yeah saw that, also some rotation on the tail near Dover, NC. Things could get interesting this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Nice little storm now over Washington and just down the river no warnings on it yet but rotation still showing up rather well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Nice little storm now over Washington and just down the river no warnings on it yet but rotation still showing up rather well washingtion.gif latest update it's ramping up the rotation, probably gonna get warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 latest update it's ramping up the rotation, probably gonna get warned. They went severe thunderstorm on it but the radar presentation is pretty classic for a tornado..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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