andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 For those of you who like helicity-- here is the RAP analysis of about 1500 m2/s2 of helicity, most of which can't be used by stable surface air parcels What will be relevant is when it rapidly increases further south as the LLJ strengthens/surface low deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 And also holy moly at the wind profile on the 00z JAN sounding, incredible hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 andyhb, on 06 Apr 2014 - 9:04 PM, said:And also holy moly at the wind profile on the 00z JAN sounding, incredible hodograph. Impressive for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 And also holy moly at the wind profile on the 00z JAN sounding, incredible hodograph.Yikes!*EDIT to remove duplicate sounding. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 And also holy moly at the wind profile on the 00z JAN sounding, incredible hodograph. Decent ML Lapse rates too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Going by the projected RAP/mesoanalysis, MLCAPE >500 J/kg gets past Tuscaloosa by 6 hrs out, LL shear skyrockets with 400-600 m2/s2 ESRH. Dewpoint up to 66 @ Hattiesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 VIL is impressive with the storm near Tuscaloosa at least 75+ kg/m^2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Hattiesburg at 72/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Patrick Marsh laying it down.. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65... VALID 070310Z - 070515Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. TORNADOES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 65. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND MODEST EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY /MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN EXPANSIVE RAIN SHIELD THAT HAS SLOWED THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WW 65...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ESTABLISHED STORM THAT CAN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH NORTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT. ..MARSH.. 04/07/2014 ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Update from Philadelphia MS, from where the stronger circulation was earlier: 2 inch diameter hail fell, and mobiles homes knocked off of blocks, with roof damage to some permanent homes as well. No guarantee it was a tornado, but certainly winds up to at least 70 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The cell SE of Natchez is starting to gain supercellular characteristics and will be nearing the warm front soon. Currently it seems that cell has the most potential to do something near-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 New svr tstrm warnings SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1034 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 LAC005-033-047-063-121-070415- /O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-140407T0415Z/ ASCENSION LA-WEST BATON ROUGE LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-LIVINGSTON LA- IBERVILLE LA- 1034 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...EAST BATON ROUGE...WEST BATON ROUGE AND ASCENSION PARISHES... and US54 KJAN 070344 SVRJAN MSC037-063-070430- /O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0089.140407T0344Z-140407T0430Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1044 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... EASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 1130 PM CDT * AT 1043 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMBURG... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The MS storm is trying to condense the circulation, at least it appears slightly better near Union Church, about 20 miles SW of Hazlehurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 New Orleans tdwr shows the Baton Rouge storm strengthening, should be a new warning for it I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Insane amount of lightning in these storms. 56 strikes in the past minute and 463 strikes in the past 60min. on the storm over New Iberia, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Yeah those cells in LA are trouble and so is the one in MS if it roots into the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Another decent circulation formed from a storm merger near Wesson in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 They did TOR the Wesson storm, hopefully not too late because it had a strong velocity signature for 2 scans prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Mendenhall MS might be in trouble here. First legit pre-tornadic looking sig of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 The storm near Amite City LA has a chance to do something if it can remain away from the other convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 A likely, or even strong tornado is possible 3 miles NW of Collins MS, heading for Taylorsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 TDS on that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Yeah likely significant tornado in progress with damage confirmed, 110 kts GTG currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 315 AM CDT * AT 220 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES... BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... STRINGER AROUND 230 AM CDT. MOSS AROUND 235 AM CDT. PAULDING AND HEIDELBERG AROUND 250 AM CDT. BARNETT AND STAFFORD SPRINGS AROUND 255 AM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SOSO AND PACHUTA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2014 Author Share Posted April 7, 2014 Brett Adair reporting injuries and multiple homes/mobile homes destroyed with that tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 AL getting some going now. One storm already warned, and another near Sardis should be shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 12, 2014 Share Posted April 12, 2014 Just 3 tornadoes were actually confirmed from the overnight storms, with the damaging EF-2 between Collins and Taylorsville MS, luckily not causing any fatalities. EF-1 tornado was indeed confirmed northeast of Philadelphia, despite thoughts of the storm being elevated. It certainly looked, from my vantage point being strong enough couplet-wise to warrant a TOR. Another brief EF-0 was in southern AL. None in the Birmingham CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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