Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Storm finally about to hit the mtn top. Webcam view of same storm. Just noticed that. So far not that impressed out this way. No building to the cumulus clouds just puffy no real updrafts starting. We had had a shower but that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Also just took a look at the new Euro and wow are we going to be treated with some very pleasant temps after Thursday for quite a few days. Looks like we run well below normal for several day according to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Skies finally beginning to darken over downtown. Watching this line fire to the north has been very interesting as it back builds towards downtown. Finally a tad bit of shear showing up on mesoanalysis over Buncombe Co. Could be aiding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 And it duped downtown again. That was pretty interesting. Glad we are getting some days like this for the NASA guys to study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 And it duped downtown again. That was pretty interesting. Glad we are getting some days like this for the NASA guys to study. Indeed! Light convection has anchored itself to my mtn top all afternoon! Why? No idea..very pleased. Lots of NASA data to review. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Indeed! Light convection has anchored itself to my mtn top all afternoon! Why? No idea..very pleased. Lots of NASA data to review. Yeah I noticed that! it looks like it is re-firing to your mtns sw again now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 One of the best cells today entering into Haywood county right know Ruth over Balsam. Some nice lightning also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Flood watch has been issued for most of the mountains. Looks like we could get quite a bit of rain from this system. Looks like maybe 2+ inches coming to a large portion of th area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 The latest NAM run is spitting out totals from 2 to 3.5 inches for the mountains especially the southwestern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Yeah I noticed that! it looks like it is re-firing to your mtns sw again now too. Counted something like 7 different cells that kept on redeveloping at a point a few miles South of Sylva near a possible Theta E max centered in the middle of the Tuckasegge river valley that drifted NNE flaring up as the air piled up in front of the blocking Plott Balsam range between Waterrock Knob and Mt. Lyn Lowry only to pulse down when it crossed over Maggie Valley. Not clear to me what exactly was causing a point source of convergence there and a few other locations in Western NC..with a more intense one located near Bryson City. Meantime-here is pic courtesy of NASA/Duke U showing now a total of 4 rain gauges(one with a wind shield), 1 disdrometer, 1 soil moisture probe, 1 electric fence and an anemometer(not shown) that isn't currently hooked up which is unfortunate as 2 gale events are about to strike..one tomorrow morning and one Saturday morning. I'm sure there will get some great data as the next storm system moves in dropping potentially flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Some impressive rainfall totals being spit out from th GFS this morning also. Just hammered th southwest mountains with some pretty heavy totals around 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Some impressive rainfall totals being spit out from th GFS this morning also. Just hammered th southwest mountains with some pretty heavy totals around 4 inches. Yeah has a bullseye of 4.84 inches in Clay Co. This system will bring the most rainfall to areas that have already gotten an inch or so over the past few days. I would say the flash flood threat is more prevalent in SW WNC since that is the area that has received the most precip. over the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 looks like some heavy rain is on its way nws is calling for 3-6 inches through tomorrow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Some Disdrometer info from yesterday's storm. Top of chart shows diameter size vs number of rain drops for base of mtn and also for the top of mtn. As you can see..the duration of rainfall was much longer at the top of the mtn vs. the bottom and mostly consisted of small droplets. This implies that most of the small droplets evaporated as they descended an additional 3000 feet to the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 looks like some heavy rain is on its way nws is calling for 3-6 inches through tomorrow for me. NASA's forecasters agree with..looking for a maximum of 5.5" in a 24 hour period. Every researcher and their mothers will be out tomorrow studying this event. Lots of balloon launches and high altitude aircraft fly overs scheduled as well. Looks like they are really going to luck out having a rain event of this magnitude happening during the short research window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 NASA's forecasters agree with..looking for a maximum of 5.5" in a 24 hour period. Every researcher and their mothers will be out tomorrow studying this event. Lots of balloon launches and high altitude aircraft fly overs scheduled as well. Looks like they are really going to luck out having a rain event of this magnitude happening during the short research window. Interesting about their maximum QPF. Any insight into where they think the bullseye will be? Or are they agreeing with NAM that it will basically be far southwest mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Skies finally beginning to darken over downtown. Watching this line fire to the north has been very interesting as it back builds towards downtown. Finally a tad bit of shear showing up on mesoanalysis over Buncombe Co. Could be aiding. Do you have a link to this radar imagery? Where does it come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Do you have a link to this radar imagery? Where does it come from? Here ya go! http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NOXP.shtml It is the radar that the NASA guys have put out for viewing in WNC while they are conducting their research. Its pretty cool to have a radar with little to no blockage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Here ya go! http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NOXP.shtml It is the radar that the NASA guys have put out for viewing in WNC while they are conducting their research. Its pretty cool to have a radar with little to no blockage. Thanks very much. I remember now that NASA is in town and I think that's great. Any idea what mountain the radar sits on? Based on their historical archive of radar images from the past few days, it looks like the radar ends at the Buncombe/Haywood county line, with no data east of that. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Interesting about their maximum QPF. Any insight into where they think the bullseye will be? Or are they agreeing with NAM that it will basically be far southwest mountains? Not sure. They put together a 81 page power point presentation about it but just included tons of model information, SAT/Aircraft overfly info etc but didn't specifically give an actual forecast other than a general statement that up to 5.5" of rain will fall in the domain of interest and for researchers to watch out for flash flooding tomorrow when they are driving around. (It also mentioned modeled PW values may end up in the 99th percentile range for tomorrow's date.) I'm sure it would have been discussed in the daily morning forecast conference call but didn't listen in. Almost for sure-they are talking about the South wind favored areas of the escarpment with a secondary max in the Balsam range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Thanks very much. I remember now that NASA is in town and I think that's great. Any idea what mountain the radar sits on? Based on their historical archive of radar images from the past few days, it looks like the radar ends at the Buncombe/Haywood county line, with no data east of that. Really? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43397-spring-and-summer-thread-for-the-mountains/?p=2945485 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Impressive moisture feed right off the gulf coast. Looks like some severe storms are starting to pop also to the West of us into TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Impressive moisture feed right off the gulf coast. Looks like some severe storms are starting to pop also to the West of us into TN. Should see some impressive amounts from North Western Florida up through the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. After were done with this system, the long-range models are dumping a lot of rain in the drought stricken areas of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Should see some impressive amounts from North Western Florida up through the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. After were done with this system, the long-range models are dumping a lot of rain in the drought stricken areas of Texas. Ya The panhandle of Florida and Northern Florida have got hammered recently. I would say yall really do not need anymore rainfall right know. We have really not had a lot of rainfall up here recently beside some localized heavy storms recently but with the amount of rainfall being shown then this could get tricky fast. Also would be very beneficial for Texas if that trough out there were to help with drought conditions that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared START: 1200Z Thu May 15 2014 END: 1800Z Sat May 17 2014 TYPE: Regional WHO: NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS Eastern Region REASON: Significant risk of flooding across much of the Eastern U.S. from the Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic...Northeast...and into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Also the other big stormy is what lies behind the front which I a huge cool down or down right cold for this time of the year. Looks like highs could only be in the 50s for a large portion of the mountains and lows in the 30s for the higher elevation. Maybe even some frost along the higher elevation peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 Another thing I am noticing is how the wind is really ripping out there. Probably a stiff 15 to 20 mph breeze with some stiff gusts. Mike you having any reading on top of the mountain about this wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Another thing I am noticing is how the wind is really ripping out there. Probably a stiff 15 to 20 mph breeze with some stiff gusts. Mike you having any reading on top of the mountain about this wind? No..anemometer is not hooked up. However expecting sustained winds of at least 40 mph later tonight straight from the South..exposed side of ridge. I note the NWS. talking about snow chances in a couple days for the high peaks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 14, 2014 Author Share Posted May 14, 2014 No..anemometer is not hooked up. However expecting sustained winds of at least 40 mph later tonight straight from the South..exposed side of ridge. I note the NWS. talking about snow chances in a couple days for the high peaks! Would not surprise me one bit with the cold air that is coming in with this thing. May have to make a trip up to some of the favored areas around here if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 14, 2014 Share Posted May 14, 2014 Would not surprise me one bit with the cold air that is coming in with this thing. May have to make a trip up to some of the favored areas around here if things work out. Yeah I may be making my way up to Mt. Mitchell or somewhere off of the parkway to catch a few May token flakes Sunday morning. I will video it if I do make the trip and the flakes are flying. Don't know if Sunday is the best day to see snow flurries but I have to work all day Monday so I won't be able to chase then, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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