MikeGold Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Quick look at the webcam of Mt. Lyn Lowry and at HRRR ensemble reflectivity guidance all suggest some mtn convection today..starting in 2 or 3 hours. Nice buildups already.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Quick look at the webcam of Mt. Lyn Lowry and at HRRR ensemble reflectivity guidance all suggest some mtn convection today..starting in 2 or 3 hours. Nice buildups already.. Very nice Mike. What a beautiful day out today is. First day I have had off in about 40 days. We have some cumulus rolling through know. Would like to see a good pop up storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Quick look at the webcam of Mt. Lyn Lowry and at HRRR ensemble reflectivity guidance all suggest some mtn convection today..starting in 2 or 3 hours. Nice buildups already.. Yeah Mike meso analysis has the valley's with cape values 1500+ already. The lift index shows a nice influx from the South as precipitable water continues to rise. It looks like the most favorable area for storms will be SW WNC but they could pop all over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Yeah Mike meso analysis has the valley's with cape values 1500+ already. The lift index shows a nice influx from the South as precipitable water continues to rise. It looks like the most favorable area for storms will be SW WNC but they could pop all over WNC. SW WNC for sure if you look at latest SAT image. NE of the Balsams still have very little cloud development. SW NC is cooking! The orientation of the clouds depicts light upslope out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 SW WNC for sure if you look at latest SAT image. NE of the Balsams still have very little cloud development. SW NC is cooking! The orientation of the clouds depicts light upslope out of the SW. Nice pic! K values starting to pop in Haywood Co. Shouldn't be to long before those start to get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Nice pic! K values starting to pop in Haywood Co. Shouldn't be to long before those start to get going. Tiny weenie shower has popped in Jackson County. Shear profiles ensure only pulse storms today that will barely drift to the E or NE. Meantime..NASA guys are on my mtn top right now no doubt watching the convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Very nice anchoring of convection right on the ridge tops on the Transylvania county line. http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/products/radar/NOXP/AGIF_NOXP_Reflectivity_04.00.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Nice convective storm right over us right know. Some nice lightning and some nice rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Very heavy rainfall right know. Huge raindrops falling right know with occasional lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 We are getting hammered right know with rain. Have picked up about 1/2 inch in just about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Also GFS and Euro still on the path of big changes towards the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 Seems to have some back building with thee storms. Still have moderate to heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 My first attempt at doing time lapse, enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZgdEeelzjo&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 12, 2014 Share Posted May 12, 2014 Seems to have some back building with thee storms. Still have moderate to heavy rainfall. Nice Met. Glad someone is cashing in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 12, 2014 Author Share Posted May 12, 2014 My first attempt at doing time lapse, enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZgdEeelzjo&feature=youtu.be Very nice man. Ya we really cashed in. Rain just ended and we picked up 1.23 inches of rainfall. Got some good pics of the storm I will post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 With such a deep trough expected to go neutral tilt Thursday and some hints of a tropical moisture tap, wonder if some here in the mountains may get the heavy rain that we were expecting two weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 With such a deep trough expected to go neutral tilt Thursday and some hints of a tropical moisture tap, wonder if some here in the mountains may get the heavy rain that we were expecting two weeks ago? Funny thing you mention this because Robert was talking about this today about how the models might be underplaying rainfall totals. Also I think there is a large area were severe weather is going to breakout also. Going to be a busy week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 My first attempt at doing time lapse, enjoy! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZgdEeelzjo&feature=youtu.be Hvward, your time lapse would have been much better if that was a supercell in the background throwing out bolts in all directions every 5 seconds! Seriously, very nice and thanks for sharing. I want to try that on my mtn top on a day when the cloud layer is down below in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Seems to have some back building with thee storms. Still have moderate to heavy rainfall. Met, you suck! My mtn top didn't get a drop!!! (Up to 2.4" of rain fell in parts of Jackson County.) No wasn't any wind shear to cause backbuilding. However, the storms were slow moving and created lots of outflow boundaries that generated new storms immediately adjacent to them that often drifted back over the same areas. In addition, if you look at my previously posted SAT image from earlier yesterday..that yellow line that I marked ended up being a subtile differential heating boundary that caused convection to over perform a bit in its vicinity. Watching the X-band radar yesterday was very cool. The Mt. Pisgah area seemed to have storms either overhead or immediately adjacent to it for hours. The light SSW wind seems to cause some terrain anchoring there along with differential heating due to the sunlight Southside of the mtn vs the cooler North side of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Met, you suck! My mtn top didn't get a drop!!! (Up to 2.4" of rain fell in parts of Jackson County.) No wasn't any wind shear to cause backbuilding. However, the storms were slow moving and created lots of outflow boundaries that generated new storms immediately adjacent to them that often drifted back over the same areas. In addition, if you look at my previously posted SAT image from earlier yesterday..that yellow line that I marked ended up being a subtile differential heating boundary that caused convection to over perform a bit in its vicinity. Watching the X-band radar yesterday was very cool. The Mt. Pisgah area seemed to have storms either overhead or immediately adjacent to it for hours. The light SSW wind seems to cause some terrain anchoring there along with differential heating due to the sunlight Southside of the mtn vs the cooler North side of the ridge. Lol was very cool witnessing the storms pretty much generating right overhead. Like I said over 1.2 inches in about an hour. Yes the new radar was very cool watching and did a great job picking up on the storms. Today I think will be a little more expansive in storms as the boundary moves a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Lol was very cool witnessing the storms pretty much generating right overhead. Like I said over 1.2 inches in about an hour. Yes the new radar was very cool watching and did a great job picking up on the storms. Today I think will be a little more expansive in storms as the boundary moves a bit closer. This morning's webcam image certainly has a convective look to it already. Multi layers of moisture in place. Some of the models really mix things out later drastically lowering CAPE so how convection will evolve today isn't particular clear. Maybe an early start and an early finish? Soundings show SSW wind again but anvil levels are also almost calm suggesting potential for local heavy rains due to poor ventilation but cores lasting no more than 20 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 This morning's webcam image certainly has a convective look to it already. Multi layers of moisture in place. Some of the models really mix things out later drastically lowering CAPE so how convection will evolve today isn't particular clear. Maybe an early start and an early finish? Looks like a beautiful morning up there. We are socked in with some very dene fog after yesterday evenings rainfall. Maybe early to start early to finish. Some nice cumulus cloud there along the mountain terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Looks like a beautiful morning up there. We are socked in with some very dene fog after yesterday evenings rainfall. Maybe early to start early to finish. Some nice cumulus cloud there along the mountain terrain. Already 1000 MU CAPE. Looking closer at current data..lots of moisture in place -no way that it is going to mix out...convection likely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Very nice man. Ya we really cashed in. Rain just ended and we picked up 1.23 inches of rainfall. Got some good pics of the storm I will post later. Hvward, your time lapse would have been much better if that was a supercell in the background throwing out bolts in all directions every 5 seconds! Seriously, very nice and thanks for sharing. I want to try that on my mtn top on a day when the cloud layer is down below in the valleys. Thanks guys! Yeah Mike that would have been awesome! There was a decently strong line of storms in TN on Saturday night moving over WNC and that video shows them pretty much die as they reach the mountains. The low level shear at the very beginning was what initially caught my eye so I decided to set my camera up. Would be neat to see your mountain top done Mike! As far as today goes, perceptible moisture looks to currently be more abundant then yesterday with cape already building across WNC. I think showers will be more widespread today and SW WNC should fair well, but some may be disappointed due to weak anvil winds like Mike was mentioning. Hopefully we all get some nice boomers today though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 Cumulus Congestus clouds already..convection no more than a couple hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 Cumulus Congestus clouds already..convection no more than a couple hours away. Nice! Still trying to burn the fog off here. Very thick still but rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted May 13, 2014 Author Share Posted May 13, 2014 A few storms popping up on the new radar coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted May 13, 2014 Share Posted May 13, 2014 A few storms popping up on the new radar coverage. Storm finally about to hit the mtn top. Webcam view of same storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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